Out Fox The $treet

Don't post daily results that often, but it's worthwhile to point out days were our portfolios end up positive and the market is very negative. These are the days were the outperformance or alpha of this portfolio really takes shape. More importantly it isn't achieved by being short the market. Below is the results from the Growth Portfolio as tracked by Marketocracy.com. Beat the SP500 by 0.67%, but more importantly SFCG was up 0.25% on a broadly negative day. The Opportunistic Portfolio was up a more impressively 1%+, but unfortunately I don't have a way to post those results on a daily basis. Note the columns are shifted over one column. The 0.25% should be under the 'Today' column. Beating Today MTD QTD YTD SFCG   0.25% 6.16% 10.82% 25.41% S&P 500 -0.42% 3.11% 7.03% 11.19% DOW -0.65% 2.15% 5.27% 8.91% Nasdaq -0.90% 2.85% 8.87% 13.65% Please contact me at stonefox27@ymail.com with any questions about investing in these portfolios.

Though both portfolios ended down for the day, I consider it a great day when they outperform the market by roughly 30 basis points. Its tough to have an aggressive portfolio that beats the market on down days. Especially when the Russel 2000 loses 1.2%. Typically the smaller caps and more aggressive stocks get hit very hard when the market drops nearly 1%. A couple of hedging moves helped reduce the risk after a large run in the markets for the first 3 weeks of September. Shorting lululemon athletica (LULU) in the Opportunistic portfolio has hedged some of the loses from today though Cramer telling people to buy it on his Stop Trading segment yesterday has limited the downside. Also, the Drexion Small Cap Bear 3x (TZA) has been a significant gainer the last 2 days providing huge protection. After 3 days of moderate losses, the market is finally in position to regain the upward trend. Any weakness tomorrow morning should likely be bought especially around 1120 in the SP500 or even...

ICICI Bank (IBN) shot up 6% today placing the stock in a severe oversold position. Hence considering the market being up 8 of the last 9 days, Stone Fox used the jump to unload our stock in IBN in the Opportunistic Portfolio. The more long term focused Growth Portfolio cut back its position by roughly 15% as well. IBN still has long prosperous future ahead, but the market and particular the stock were ahead of itself short term. The RSI was an off the charts 82 and the CCI hit 262. Both numbers that can typically signal a short term top. Hopefully the stock will swoon back to the low $40s soon and we'll re-enter the position. 2:20 Update:  Trade was just below $48. So far the stock and the market have held up better then expected from over bought conditions. Would imagine the stock does dip back to mid $40s, but at some point i'd expect a breakout above the current ranges in the SP500 to leave a lot of people expecting a pullback that doesn't happen.

Over the last 2 years, the Growth Portfolio has beaten 95.7% of the portfolios tracked on Marketocracy.com. Still leaves some room for improvement but still a very solid performance. The last 3 months through June were very disappointing, but its still encouraging that the portfolio beat all but 4% of the portfolios over that time period. Q3 is starting off very solid with a 12.5% gain with 3 days left in July. Counting normalized fees, the portfolio is beating the SP500 by roughly 12% per year. ALL RANKINGS FOR YOUR FUND Date 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year Sep 30, 2008 27.4% 40.1% ...

The last 2 years have been pretty wild since I started tracking this Growth Portfolio over on Marketocracy.com . The market had already taken a serious hit when I launched it on June 19, 2008 and much to my surprise the downdraft had just started. Now after a huge climb out of the pits of March 2009, the SP500 is still down 13% (nearly 15% counting today) since I began. Relative outperformance has been on par with our expectations at over 11.5%. Take the 10.3% annualized gain listed below and add 1.25% in excessive fees charged by the site and you get the 11.5%. In normal times, beating a market by double digits would be exciting, but an annualized return that falls short of 5% doesn't cut it for us. Not bad for this environment, but hardly better then investing in 10 year treasuries and alot more stressful. Gains were lead by stocks like Baidu (BIDU) sold for a 240% profit, Apple (AAPL) at 145% and counting, and Tween Brands (TWB) boughtout for a gain of 140%. Some losers have bee...

Today was the kind of outperformance Stone Fox strives for when looking for stocks that have been mis-valued by the markets finally explode onto the scene. The Growth Portfolio was up 2.5% compared to 0.79% for the SP500 while the Opportunistic Portfolio fared even better up 3.8%. The big winners were the portfolios largest holding AerCap Holdings (AER) gaining 7% and speculative China coal play Puda Coal (PUDA) up 8.5%. Also helped that large holding Riverbed Tech (RVBD) was up 5.4% and other holdings like Regions Financial (RF) and Liz Claiborne (LIZ) were up 5%. The market is overbought short term, but long term we still see incredible value in all those stocks mentioned. AER and PUDA could easily rack up earnings in the $2+ range in 2011 and they only trades at $13 and $10, respectively. They both could see $20 assuming they meet earnings expectations. Growth Portfolio numbers via marketocracy.com. See links to all portfolio performance numbers on the right hand side. Opportunistic...

Slow to report this but yesterday we bought the Direxion Small Cap 3x Bear (TZA) in the Growth, Hedged Growth and Opportunistic Portfolios. The purchase in the Hedged and Opportunistic Portfolios amounted to nearly 10% of the portfolios though the Opportunistic purchase was just to offset the margin currently in that count bringing the net bullish investment to just 100%. TZA was purchased because it was and is extremely oversold having an RSI of 25 yesterday and a CCI below -100. Both signs that a reversal is likely. Small caps have just been too hot lately so we expect at least a minimal pullback. For the Hedged Growth Portfolio this is on of the first hedges/shorts that we've used in the last year since the March 9th low.

Being the anniversary of the Bear Market low on 3/9/09, today seems like a good day to review our performance since then. When March started last year, we were about ready to give up. So many stocks were unbelievable buys yet the market kept spiraling down. A year later we feel vindicated as all 4 portfolios have easily beat the market since we started tracking them back in 2008. The Opportunistic Model had the biggest gain in the last 12 months at 165% (200%+ by our calculations) followed closely by the Growth Portfolio. Going forward, were looking towards another strong year as the markets likely provide another solid gain in the 2nd year of this bull market. Its very unlikely that a bull market dies after only one year. As always we'll adjust the portfolios if it appears that the market won't continue the rally. At some point in late spring or summer we're like to finally face a true 10% correction so 2010/2011 won't be as easy as the last 12 months. Growth Portfolio...

Liz Claiborne (LIZ) has been a favorite stock of Stone Fox Capital for a while now. The stock was looking extended on the both the CCI and RSI measures. It was also approaching a double from October so we pruned 50% of our position in the Growth Portfolio at $7.26 leaving 2,000 shares. We'll be looking to buy that position back if the shares trade back to the 20EMA which is at 6.32 today. It's also discouraging that the stock is down in an up day. Another sign that it might need to rest before trying to breakout of the double top.

Just a little update on the Growth Portfolio that now has over a 20 month history. It's now up 125% over the last 12 months which is 69% more then the SP500. This leads to a 13.5% annualized return in excess of the SP500. * All below returns are actually 0.75% higher on a annualized basis then the below numbers due to our tracking system at Marketocracy.com assuming a 2%+ annual fee versus the 1.25% for this portfolio. RETURNS Last Week 2.44% Last Month 9.23% Last 3 Months 8.56% Last 6 Months 24.61% Last 12 Months 124.50% Last 2 Years N/A Last 3 Years N/A Last 5 Years N/A Since Inception 8.15% (Annualized) 4.71% S&P500 RETURNS Last Week 0.75% Last Month 4.15% Last 3 Months 1.11% Last 6 Months 13.28% Last 12 M...

After the SP500 touched just below the 200EMA at 1046, Stone Fox Capital used the roughly 7% cash we had accoummulated from selling US Steel (X) a few weeks back to become fully invested. The portfolio has only $4500 left in cash so we'll likely look to trim a few positions on a solid bounce in the market next week. A huge oversold market (at one point down 4.7% in less then 2 days) creates a great entry point for adding to positions. Added to our positions in some extremely oversold stocks such as Foster Wheeler (FWLT), Terex (TEX), Puda Coal (PUDA), Phoenix Companies (PNX), and to a couple of stocks still in strong positions Local.com (LOCM) and Terremark Worldwide (TMRK). Most of these stocks will likely bounce the hightest, but if they stall at key technical levels on the way up that will trigger selling these purchases. Some charts like FWLT, TEX, and PNX are clearly broken. They all have 14 day RSI sub 30 and CCIs in the -160 range. For example, TEX has been down 14 of the l...

This month has been beautiful so far, but today was almost perfect. The Growth Portfolio made a 1.29% gain while the market was basically flat. Heck the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq were both down. This portfolio made more today in a flat market then most people piled into short term treasuries will make in years. Just hope I haven't jinxed the trade the rest of the week. Beating Today MTD QTD YTD SFCG 1.29% 4.60% 4.60% 4.60% S&P 500 0.05% 1.93% 1.93% 1.93% DOW 0.02% 1.38% 1.38% 1.38% Nasdaq -0.33% 1.74% 1.74% 1.74%

2009 has been a phenomenal year in the market in has gains in the SP500 look to succeed 25%. Our Growth Portfolio is on the pace for a 78% gain if the market closes at these levels with only 4 trading days left. That's easily going to be 50% points greater then the market. A remarkable year after such a weak start going into March. Also, the annualized gain should finish the year around 12.5% after 18 months of performance. Not too shabby for a very wild time period. Our biggest holding is Apple ( AAPL ) and it closed out last week with an all time high over $209. Its bounce back from the $80s along with other big moves in large holding like the Hartford Financial ( HIG ), US Steel (X), and Freeport McMoran ( FCX ) not only shows the explosive growth in the market but also the different sectors and hence the reduced risk not being totally reliant on just commodities or financials like alot of top portfolios. For 2010, we still see decent gains in the market as the melt up con...

Today, Regions Financial (RF) reported Q3 results. The results were to some degree worse then expected, but in the crazy world of banking stocks RF rallied today after an initial selloff. Looking at the numbers and reading the transcript of the CC , it appears that RF largely reported a bigger then expected loss due to dramatically increasing the provision for losses. In fact the loan provisions were some $300M greater then charge offs and up over $100M from the linked quarter. Net loan charge-offs increased to $680 million or an annualized 2.86 percent of average loans, driven by value-related write-downs and problem asset dispositions Allowance for credit losses increased to 2.90 percent of loans with $1.025 billion provision for loan losses, exceeding net charge-offs by $345 million It appears that alot of investors see Q3 as the peak in provisions especially considering the comments about the inflows of non-performin...

The Growth Portfolio has now turned positive since the tracking was launched on June 19th last year. During this time period the SP500 is still down nearly 18%. On a annualized basis the portfolio is now outperforming by over 17%. Its been a very long roughly 16 months now and the total performance isn't that much to write home about, but the relative performance has been spectacular especially the last 6 months. Having survived the downturn slightly worse then the market, Stone Fox Capital has been able to pick typical fast growth companies to outshine the market lately. The Portfolio is up 95% the last 6 months. RETURNS Last Week 9.31% Last Month 17.79% Last 3 Months 29.62% Last 6 Months 94.82% Last 12 Months 21.03% Last 2 Years N/A Last 3 Years N/A Last 5 Years N/A Since Inception 2.29% (Annualized) 1.83% ...