Out Fox The $treet

Update - Apr. 28 Snap will figure it out. The dip is a massive opportunity with the stock trading back towards the October lows and Meta up nearly 200%. -Snap (NYSE:SNAP) has tumbled 18%, its worst decline since October, after a first-quarter earnings report that showed not everyone in the digital advertising world was recovering to start 2023. -Stock in Alphabet and Meta Platforms has rallied as investors processed signs of improvement in those ad businesses. The "haves" have done well this week; the have-nots ... have not. -Snap (SNAP) reported its first-ever decline in quarterly revenues, and while analysts at least saw that part coming, the fall was worse than anticipated: Sales slid 7% vs. an expected drop of 5%. Original article published on Apr. 24 Snap Inc. has made an aggressive move into AI chat, launching MY AI chat for all users. The social messaging company announced over 3 million subscribers to Snapchat+, offering signs of a building recurring revenue stream. S...

  Pinterest reported a solid quarterly beat for Q1'23, but the company only grew revenues by 5%. The stock fell after hours due to guidance for double-digit operating expense growth in Q2'23, but the company needs to invest aggressively in enhancing the shopping experience. Pinterest quickly becomes cheap as the stock dips to 4x forward EV/S targets. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   The market doesn't like the  Q2'23 guidance  from  Pinterest  ( NYSE: PINS ), but the numbers are clear that the social imaging company needs to spend to win the large market opportunity. The company has a large user base  that is currently being vastly under monetized suggesting more spending is needed. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on the stock following the after-hours dip. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned....

  Intel Corporation reported Q1 2023 results that were better than feared, but the company burned a ton of cash during the March quarter. The chip giant saw net debt soar during the quarter due the loss, large capex spending and the payment of the last large dividend. Intel Corporation stock is expensive at $30 with debt soaring, and with the best expectations for an EPS to top $2 not until 2025 at the earliest. Intel Corporation  ( NASDAQ: INTC ) got a quick pop on better than feared  Q1 2023 results , but the numbers by no means were good. The chip giant saw its only growing business unit see  a related stock collapse during the day after reporting their earnings. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on Intel as the business starts losing money while investing aggressively into a very uncertain future, adding a large amount of risk to the story. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaime...

  Novavax, Inc. bounced on hype while the prospects from the business continued to dim with the demand for Covid vaccines. The small biotech has major doubts about the financial picture of the company considering the massive operating expense structure built up to produce Covid vaccines. Novavax stock remains a Sell due to like further dilution ahead and no logical path to profits. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Following a going concern proclamation from the company,  Novavax, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: NVAX ) had bounced over 50% of the lows to over $9. The biotech faces a problematic year as demand for Covid boosters dries up and the company has a  major mismatch with their current expense structure. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on the stock as investors await Q1 results in mid-May. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position men...

  AMD continues to face a PC chip inventory correction that could impact Q1 results on May 2 and lower Q2 guidance. Investors got good news from TSMC forecasting a bottom in the inventory correction. The stock is cheap based on a quick ramp to a $5 to $6 EPS based on server demand and future AI chips. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   As  Advanced Micro Devices  ( NASDAQ: AMD ) heads towards reporting Q1'23 results on May 2, shareholders already got some positive indications from  Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company   Limited  ( TSM ). The chip manufacturer for leading advanced fabless  chip companies like AMD sees the prolonged chip inventory issue ending this quarter. My  investment thesis  is ultra Bullish on the stock expecting another $100 rally once the current chip inventory issue passes. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha....

Update - Apr. 24, 2023 This negative call doesn't add up. Enterprises are looking to spend more on AI and pull back in other areas. The stock appears headed straight to $14 now.  -C3.ai (NYSE:AI) stock fell more than 5% on Monday as investment firm Wolfe Research downgraded the enterprise software company, citing concerns about spending. -Analyst Joshua Tilton lowered his rating on C3.ai (AI) to underperform from peer perform, while setting a per-share price target of $14, noting that there are "significant risks" to fiscal 2024 revenue growth, as spending budgets are likely to be impacted by a "negative macro outlook." -Additionally, Tilton noted that companies are continuing to consolidate their spending on software, "which in our view, threatens the uptake of C3.ai’s newly introduced consumption model." Original article posted on Apr. 6 C3.ai has seen a major pullback providing an opportunity to own a compelling AI story. The enterprise AI software ...

  Alphabet/Google continues to trade risk-off due to fears that Bing Chat is a major risk to the search market. The market fears over Google losing default search deals for mobile traffic from Apple and Samsung are misplaced. Google stock trades at an EV of only ~11x '25 EPS estimates. Within days, media reports have suggested  Alphabet Inc.  ( NASDAQ: GOOG ,  NASDAQ: GOOGL ) aka Google was at risk of losing search mobile browser default settings due primarily to new AI options.  Microsoft Corporation  ( MSFT ) search  engine Bing is definitely a threat in AI, but the stock market is too fearful of this threat in Internet search. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on Google based on the cheap valuation and its dominant position in mobile search that is unlikely to be impacted by losing default browser settings. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for mor...

Update - Apr. 17, 2023 Great monthly numbers for March, but the stock got too expensive. Roblox is now down 12% on the news, as the stock was trading near 10x forward sales estimates. The stock is much more appealing in the mid-$30s.  -Roblox (NYSE:RBLX) shares fell 12% premarket on Monday after the video-game company reported user metrics for March 2023. -Average bookings per daily active user (ABPDAU) were between $3.73 and $3.85, implying a year-over-year change of -2% - +1%. The change in year-over-year March 2023 ABPDAU would have been between -1% and 3% on constant currency. -Daily active users grew were 66.2M, up 26% Y/Y but was down from 67.3M in February. Hours engaged were 4.8B, up 26% Y/Y. Update - Mar. 14, 2023 Great numbers in February with growth in the 20% range.... would be nice to see a weaker stock price.  Roblox (NYSE:RBLX) said its February revenue is estimated at between $214M and $217M, up 20% to 22% on a yearly basis. Daily active users rose 22% on a yea...

  Wells Fargo & Company reported a solid Q1 2023 beat despite the banking crisis. The large bank faces higher credit losses and deposit pressure. Wells Fargo repurchased $4 billion worth of stock in a strong return to buying cheap shares. Wells Fargo & Company stock remains cheap at 8x EPS targets. While the U.S. banking sector was in a crisis during Q1,  Wells Fargo & Company  ( NYSE: WFC ) spent the quarter repurchasing a ton of shares. The large bank definitely faced growing credit problems, but the credit losses  aren't alarming. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on the stock at $40. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Updated - Apr. 11, 2023 Delta Air Lines (DAL) guides up for Q2 and '23, yet the market yawns. American Airlines again fell on the strong guidance from the airline.  -“Delta is building momentum, with the best people in the industry generating nearly $5B of operating profit over the last twelve months,” CEO Ed Bastian said. “For the June quarter, we expect to deliver record revenue, and an adjusted operating margin of 14 to 16 percent with earnings per share of $2.00 to $2.25. With solid March quarter profitability and a strong outlook for the June quarter, we are confident in our full-year guidance for revenue growth of 15 to 20 percent year over year, earnings of $5 to $6 per share and free cash flow of over $2B.” -The consensus EPS forecast for the second quarter stood at $1.64 while full-year forecasts were pegged at $5.37. The 15% to 20% revenue growth guide is also well above the 10.56% consensus. Original article posted on April 7.  American Airlines won't be harmed by h...

  NIO Inc. reported mixed March monthly vehicle deliveries of 10,378. The Chinese electric vehicle company still forecasts vehicle deliveries reaching a goal of 250K this year, which appears aggressive after only 31K in Q1. NIO stock is cheap at 1x EV/S multiples, with major multiple expansion possible on hitting breakout EV delivery targets for the year. The Chinese electric vehicle ("EV") space continues to struggle to rebound from covid restrictions and the lack of subsidies that caused a rush to purchase vehicles at the end of 2022.   NIO Inc.  ( NYSE: NIO ) has  fallen flat to start 2023, with sales growth not matching internal targets, though the EV company is making progress. My  investment thesis  remains ultra-Bullish on the breakout potential in the sector, though NIO continues to struggle to grow beyond prior sales peaks. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please read the disclaimer page for more det...

Update - Apr. 10 Ouster announced a reverse split effective April 21. The announcement is not a surprise with the stock trading below $1 again and traders pressuring for the move.  Ouster (NYSE:OUST) board of directors has approved a 1-for-10 reverse stock split, par value $0.001 per share. It is expected to become effective on Thursday, April 20, 2023 and trade on NYSE on April 21, 2023 under the existing symbol "OUST".  Original article posted on Mar. 30 Ouster reported Q4'22 results, but the company provides limited details on the Velodyne Lidar business. The Lidar company closed the merger on February 10 with confirmed guidance for combined Q4'22 revenues of at least $23 million. Ouster guided to Q1'23 revenues of only $16 million without providing a complete picture of Velodyne Lidar revenues. OUST stock trades below 4x the '22 bookings of Ouster alone, yet the lack of combined pro forma financials leaves a lot of unanswered questions. This idea was discu...

Update - Apr. 4, 2023 The short attack is here with Kerrisdale Capital attacking the accounting of C3.ai right after the stock soars into the quarter end. The stock already wasn't as appealing back above $30. The accounting questions appear a stretch, but the company has regularly replaced the CFO in the last 4 years.  C3.ai ( NYSE: AI )  fell 12%  after Kerrisdale Capital, which released a  short report  on the company last month, wrote a letter to the company's auditor outlining its concerns. Kerrisdale, run by Sahm Adrangi, sent  a letter  to Deloitte & Touche, highlighting its concerns with alleged accounting  issues at C3.Ai . Update - Apr. 2, 2023 C3.ai had a huge rally to end March likely due to fund managers piling into the stock to report a position at quarter end. The move appears silly but the stock is officially in breakout mode above $30 here. Even SoundHound Ai (SOUN) rallied 40% on Friday.   C3.ai ( NYSE: AI ) shares surge...

Lithium Americas Corp. is set to start production at a mine in Argentina. The lithium miner is now moving full speed ahead at the Thacker Pass mine in Nevada. Lithium Americas stock is cheap based on the estimated profits from the limited 20,000 tpa production from the Argentina mine alone. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Even with lithium prices falling dramatically in the last month,  Lithium Americas Corp.  ( NYSE: LAC ) hasn't fallen much lately. The company continues to confirm massive profit opportunities ahead at current lithium prices, and production should begin shortly at a  mine in Argentina. My  investment thesis  remains ultra-Bullish on the lithium miner. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review my disclaimer page for more details. 

  Rumble Inc. smashed Q4 revenue numbers, hitting nearly $20 million for the first time. The company guided to weaker Q1 revenues while costs are soaring. Rumble Inc. stock hasn't held initial gains due to trading at ~25x '23 sales targets. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Rumble Inc.  ( NASDAQ: RUM ) offers a lot of promises to take on YouTube, owned by  Alphabet Inc.  ( GOOG ,  GOOGL ), in the online video market. The company continues to announce a ton of new content  partners while working on innovative monetization products, but the ramp to material revenues and profits will be lengthy. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on Rumble Inc. stock due to valuation, but the company did end 2022 on an impressive note. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details....