Out Fox The $treet

  Block rallied 26% following strong Q4'21 earnings. The big rally is nearly equal to the returns any investors should expect for the full year. The stock is already expensive trading back at 12x adjusted revenue targets while the BNPL product introduces additional lending risks. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » Block  ( SQ ) is finally worth a serious look after the fintech sector has corrected the last few months. The company has a new name, but investors still have to make sure the correct financials are analyzed due to the massive amount of revenues generated by bitcoin. My investment thesis is far more constructive on the stock now, though disappointed in the massive post-earnings jump and the acquisition of Afterpay. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.   Update - Feb. 28   These analysts ...

Square rallies near yearly highs after Q1 results. The company should report a large decline in Q2 payments volumes and an EBITDA loss. The stock trades at an insane 65x normalized EBITDA targets that are unlikely to be obtainable even in 2021. Despite the obvious long-term impact of the coronavirus to  Square  ( SQ ) small business customers, the stock is now back close to yearly highs. The company faces a tough road ahead with a material impact to business in the current quarter and a questionable future. My  investment thesis  was bullish on a rebound at the lows near $40, but the stock is no longer appealing above $75. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Square gets 45% of GPVs from sellers generating under $125,000 in sales. The payments company is likely to see customers go out of business. My base case is 0% revenue growth in 2020 and a return to only 15% growth in 2021. The stock is a buy at 7x '21 adjusted revenues with potential upside to estimates. The Covid-19 outbreak and the shutdown of the global economy has investors fleeing  Square  (NYSE: SQ ). The mobile payment company is highly dependent on small business customers, and the economic slowdown is going to hit their customer base the hardest. Just weeks ago,  my view  on the stock was negative with the price back above $80, and now, the stock is far more appealing after a 50% collapse in a matter of weeks. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Update March 25, 2020 The company updated Q1 guidance to only slightly below original forecasts. The stock has already soared on the backs of the agreement on a stimulus deal to help...

Square rallied following soft 2020 guidance due likely to a confusion over net and adjusted revenues. Revenue guidance suggests only 25% growth this year. The stock trades at a very rich 76x EBITDA targets. Square  ( SQ ) has a lot of moving parts in their revenue numbers so the stock rallying on Q4 numbers and more specifically on disappointing 2020 guidance has investors chasing false revenue hype again. Despite the U.S. stock markets crashing over 10%, the stock is near recent highs. My  investment thesis  remains negative at this valuation due to the likelihood the market doesn't understand the presented revenue metrics and the ramifications. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Square beat Q3 estimates. The company will quit reporting adjusted revenues due to communication from the SEC. The end result is a focus on bottom line metrics pointing towards the stock trading at a max value. Square trades at 63x '20 EBITDA guidance. Along with the  Q3 report ,  Square  ( SQ ) offered a lot for investors to absorb. The fintech saw the core business beat estimates while the removal of weak Caviar made the comparisons difficult. All while the company is moving away from reporting adjusted revenues due to SEC guidance causing further confusion. My  investment thesis  still has the stock overvalued based on the $31 billion market cap and adjusted revenues of $2.5 billion, suggesting investors should let all of the revenue confusion shake out before finding the stock interesting. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  More commentary - WhoTrades Update - November 26 Macquarie's Dan Dolev starts Square with an Outperf...

Square shareholders have to reset expectations with the stock down $50 from the highs. Decelerating revenue growth trends will not be helped by a slowdown in the economy. The stock still trades at an elevated 12x '19 sales estimates. Despite obvious valuation issues,   Square   ( SQ ) investors were riding the stock higher above $100 earlier this year. The mobile payments provider traded at a market valuation approaching $50 billion while the company only guided adjusted revenues to $1.57 billion for the year. My   previous article   discussed that even a dip to the recent price of $50 would leave the stock in a stretched valuation so investors need to be careful chasing the stock here. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.   

One of the bigg est momentum trades coming out of the market correction of 2018 will likely be Square (SQ) . The mobile payments firm dipped an incredible $50 or 50% from the peak in September over $100. The stock bounced off strong support around $50. 

Square actually traded down following a big Q3 beat. A lot of the negative signal from prior to the quarter contributed to the weakness in the stock. The market has missed that share counts are exploding, up 15% YoY. The stock still trades at about 23.5x '18 adjusted revenue estimates. As some shareholders hate, my  previous articles  on  Square  ( SQ ) pointed out the substantial risks in owning the mobile payment provider with limited profits at stretched valuation multiples. Following the release of  Q3 results , some more cracks are starting to form in the runaway growth story where my  investment thesis  already identified negative signals.  Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.

Square falls after moving further into risky loans. The departure of the CFO is another big risk for the stock. The long-term margin picture is mostly misunderstood by investors leading to the insane valuation when the stock reached $100. Square is still too expensive at $70 with these negative signals. In a predictable move, an overpriced stock like   Square   ( SQ ) quickly surged to $100 and just as quickly gave up the gains of the last few weeks. The mobile-payments company has quickly expanded into new areas and the market rapidly accepted them as easy money. Some likely doubts are emerging over a further expansion into the loan business, questioning if Square is running out of opportunities for customer expansion in more strategic areas. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.   

Square (SQ) hit new all-time highs following a segment from Jim Cramer focusing on the stock. The Mad Money host made the odd claim to buy the stock on Bitcoin weakness when Square trades at the highs in part due to cryptocurrency insanity.

Square cooled off following another run towards $50 due to the Bitcoin craze. The company is unlikely to attract large Bitcoin trading volumes as other services already corner the market. The valuation remains stretched as revenues aren't even set to top $1 billion for 2017. Square  ( SQ ) was trading back towards the all-time highs near $50 due to more excitement around Bitcoin before the market collapse. The stock valuation remains aggressive considering the limited utilization of the Cash App and the crashing value of cryptocurrencies. Square has now failed on two runs at $50. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Trump hasn't even taken office yet and the Federal regulators are already proposing regulations that will make it more efficient for FinTechs to operate. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency proposed allowing FinTech firms to obtain a national bank charter.

Square traded close to all-time lows as the 180-day lockup period expired on May 16. While shareholders such as VC firms can now unload shares, the incentives don't exist for most shares and options with the stock around $9. The recommendation remains to use this irrational dip in the stock price to buy Square. Despite a known problem when the company went public, Square (NYSE: SQ ) was hit rather substantially by the lockup expiration that expired on May 16. If it wasn't for the shares coming onto the market that swamps the existing float, one has to wonder if the stock would have even traded down after Q1 results. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Please read the disclaimer page for more details.

Square reported strong adjusted revenue growth for Q1 that failed to impress the market. . The biggest culprit to the stock decline centers around confusion on the share count and one-time charges. . The stock should rally once the lockup expiration passes in the next week. . The  quarterly results  of  Square (NYSE: SQ )  appear very solid from the surface, but the stock ended down nearly 22% on the news. As highlighted in my  past research , the stock was highly susceptible to confusion due to different revenue metrics, the recent IPO, and the  Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX )  contract status. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Please read the disclaimer page for more details.

Square has sold off 10% this week after an analyst price target cut. Investors face the upcoming volatility of the first earnings report of the public company. The valuation doesn't warrant owning Square with the headline risk. One of the biggest risks investing in an IPO is the initial earnings report. For a new public company, investors have no reference as to how corporate executives guide, be it conservatively or by over-inflating growth expectations to attract investors. Not to mention, the confusing aspect of accurately reflecting the new share count in expectations and the general impact of more public awareness about the business, offset by an executive team distracted by the IPO process. The end result is a messy initial quarterly report. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Please review the disclaimer position for more details.