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Showing posts from October, 2021

IB Net Payout Yields Model

Curaleaf: Big Cannabis

  Curaleaf is forecast to report a massive Q3'21 with adjusted EBITDA profits topping $100 million for the first time. The company has up to 5 Northeast states opening up recreational cannabis sales by 2023, adding at least $11 billion to the market opportunity. The average analyst price target predicts 125% upside in the stock. The stock only trades at only 12x '22 base EBITDA targets. Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.  Learn More » As the U.S. MSOs (multi-state operators) continue to slump, the market needs to remember these companies are the true market leaders.  Curaleaf  ( OTCPK:CURLF ) is looking towards some massive quarters down the road and the market will eventually catch on. My  investment thesis  remains Bullish on this "Big Cannabis" play. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more det

Aurora Innovation: De-SPAC Pain Ahead

  Aurora Innovation is working to close a business combination with Reinvent Technology Partners Y. The stock has an implied equity valuation of $13 billion with $11 billion assigned to the value of Aurora Innovation. The company lacks material commercial operations until 2026 limiting the likely positive view on the stock for years. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » The self-driving technology sector is one of the hottest areas for investment, but the SPAC pathway to the public markets isn't rewarding shareholders in the short term. Market leader  Aurora Innovation  agreed to a  business combination  with  Reinvent Technology Partners Y  ( RTPY ) back in July and the recent price isn't suggestive of a great outcome to the de-SPAC transaction. My investment thesis is Neutral on the stock until after the deal is done, especially at this valuation. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No posi

MoneyLion: More Irrational De-SPAC Pain

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  MoneyLion collapsed to $6 following the de-SPAC transaction. The digital banking platform recently hiked revenue guidance for 2023 by 24% with 84% growth rates. The stock only trades at 3x revenue estimates despite the projected fast growth and the move into crypto and BNPL. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » Every day an investor can find a stock crushed after completing a de-SPAC transaction. In this case,  MoneyLion  ( ML ) completely collapsed following  closing their deal  with Fusion Acquisition Corp. back on September 22. My investment thesis is very Bullish on the digital banking platform with the stock now around $7. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - Dec. 6, 2021 The more MoneyLion falls, the more investors will make over the long haul. At this price, the stock only trade

Canopy Growth: Cracking The Piggy Bank Again

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  Canopy Growth makes another investment to enter the U.S. THC market when federally permissible. Wana Brands doesn't have a dominant market position in edibles to justify an aggressive move. The Canadian cannabis company will no longer have a net cash position following this deal and another quarter of operating losses. Even down at the lows, the stock still trades at a very expensive P/S multiple of 10x FY22 sales targets. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » The Canadian cannabis LPs have consistently overspent on acquisitions and facilities to build empires. The latest deal by  Canopy Growth  ( CGC ) repeats on this history of aggressively attempting to buy growth when patience is needed. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on the stock as the company makes another upfront payment to enter the U.S. market. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position menti

Glass House: Glass Problems

  Glass House has collapsed following the close of a SPAC transaction with Mercer Park Acquisition. The company plans to cultivate up to 6.0 million sq. ft of greenhouse space in the highly competitive California market. The stock has a limited market cap now, but the company has an unappealing business model focused on large scale cannabis cultivation. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » Glass House Brands   ( OTC:GLASF )  has fallen victim to a couple of negative trends: SPACs and cannabis in general. While these trends are hurting the stock, the biggest problem is a focus on consolidating the highly competitive California cannabis market. My investment thesis is Neutral on the stock due to this focus of repeating the issues of the Canadian cannabis market. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - Nov. 18 Some very neg

Redwire: Old Space SPAC On The Cheap

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  Redwire recently completed a SPAC deal and no surprisingly immediately traded below $10. The company focuses on space infrastructure and expects to hit 2021 revenue of $163 million. The stock trades at less than 2x 2022 revenue estimates making for a good starter position. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » The space sector has garnered a lot of attention lately with several launches of tourist flights along with Cathie Wood's ARK Invest launching a space ETF,  ARK Space Exploration & Innovation   (BATS: ARKX ) . A lot of the stocks are richly priced, but the completion of a SPAC deal and a legacy infrastructure pure play in the sector offers a solid deal for  Redwire   (NYSE: RDW )  investors. My investment thesis is very Bullish on the ignored space tech play. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - Nov. 10

Skillz: Wait For The Bottoming Out Process To End

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  Skillz has fallen all the way to $9 after initially soaring to $46 on hype surrounding fast growth. The company hasn't proven that high spending on marketing leads to better long-term economics. The stock has a more appealing valuation of $4 billion, but Skillz remains a falling knife to avoid for now. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » As with a lot of the original hot SPACs,  Skillz  ( SKLZ ) came out of the gate red hot based on massive revenue growth projections. Unfortunately, the market didn't fully research the factors driving those high growth rates. My  investment thesis  is far more Neutral on the stock now, but my view needs the company to improve user numbers before turning fully Bullish. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.   Update - Nov. 3 Skillz reports after the close with the stock jumping into ear