Out Fox The $treet

Updated - Mar. 31, 2023 Rumble didn't hold the initial massive after-hours rally as the big Q4'22 beat won't repeat in Q1'23. The CFO guided to sequentially lower revenue in the just ending March quarter. The stock valuation is very rich at $3 billion with the quarterly revenues below $20 million.  Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.00. Revenue of $19.96M (+578.9% Y/Y). Average global Monthly Active Users increased 142% to 80 million, a company record, compared to 33 million in the fourth quarter of 2021. Of the 80 million, 65 million were based  in the U.S. and Canada, compared to 21 million in the U.S. and Canada during the fourth quarter of 2021. The stock not breaking $10 appears very bearish.  Original article posted on Feb. 13   Rumble Inc. recently rallied above $10 on hype surrounding new content deals and a market rebound. The Power Slap content partnership is promising, but the engagement is still relatively low. Rumble stock should trade down to at least $5, where the...

  EVgo is rallying on a quarterly revenue beat, but the company continues to pile on large losses. The fast-charging company forecast another year of massive losses and investments in 2023. EVGO stock trades at a very rich valuation of nearly 20x low-end '23 sales targets of $105 million. EVgo  ( NASDAQ: EVGO ) is surging on a quarter that beat analyst estimates. The market needs to carefully reassess the results of the EV fast charging company before deeming any value in the stock. My  investment thesis  remains ultra bearish on the stock after the company guided to substantial losses in 2023. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  

  Update Mar. 28, 2023 After reporting a better than expected quarter, investors shouldn't take the FY23 guidance to heart. The cruise line continues to head back to normal operations with massive profits in the years ahead. Carnival shouldn't be trading near all-time lows.  Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.55  beats by $0.05 . Revenue of $4.43B (+166.7% Y/Y)   beats by $130M . Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2023 was $382 million, better than the December guidance range of $250 million to $350 million, despite a $31 million  unfavorable impact from fuel price and currency rates since December guidance. Outlook: Adjusted EBITDA of $3.9 billion to $4.1 billionIncludes approximately $0.5 billion unfavorable impact from fuel price and currency compared to 2019 Sequential improvement in each quarter in adjusted EBITDA per ALBD compared to 2019, driven by closing the gap in occupancy to 2019 levels while achieving net per diems above 2019 levels Original art...

  Update - Mar. 27, 2023 Ouster missed a great opportunity to promote the combined business of Velodyne Lidar and Ouster and the company decided to pass. The stock trades below $1 for this reason and management has to own this incompetence.  -Q4 GAAP EPS of -$0.23 misses by $0.03. -Revenue of $10.94M (-7.7% Y/Y) misses by $4.9M. -Secured company record $70 million in bookings in 2022 - Q1'23 revenue guidance of $15 to $17 million, excludes Velodyne revenues through merger close on Feb. 10. The Q4 revenue total was closer to $25 million and the Q1'23 pro-forma revenue total was probably closer to $21 million.   Update - Mar. 15, 2023 Pretty nice deal here with 100 Lidar sensors shipped at the end of '22. Ouster shouldn't be trading back below $1.  -Fieldin has already deployed dozens of kits at its customers’ farms and plans to deploy over 100 autonomy retrofit kits on tractors, each equipped with an Ouster OS1, to major customers across the United States in 2023. Ous...

  First Republic continues volatile trading due to uncertainty regarding the bank's funding sources despite multiple deals. The bank was highly dependent on business accounts with an average deposit balance of $490,000 leading to these uninsured accounts likely fleeing the regional bank. Any rescue package would be highly dilutive with the market cap down to $3 billion. Investors should be wary that all of the recent bank deals have wiped out or diluted shareholders. First Republic Bank  ( NYSE: FRC ) shareholders have been on a roller coaster ride since the regional bank was first hit by worries of a run on deposits. Federal bank regulators and large domestic banks have  all offered solutions to help resolve the deposit run on First Republic, but investors should be weary of these gifts considering other bank resolutions in this crisis. My investment thesis is Neutral on the bank stock with binary outcomes leading to unacceptable risk. Read the full article on Seeking A...

This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Update - Mar. 22, 2023 Just a crazy downgrade by GS to a $5 price target. The market just gives Luminar no respect for massive deals.  Goldman Sachs cut its rating on Luminar Technologies ( NASDAQ: LAZR ) to Sell from Neutral. Analyst Mark Delaney said the ratings cut reflected margin risk for LAZR and the premium valuation. While the firm continues to see Luminar  as one of the leaders in the very competitive lidar industry with recent design wins in the ADAS/AV ecosystem standing out, the near-term setup is called worrying. "We see downside to the company's margin outlook with the company targeting revenue per vehicle of ~$1k which we believe implies ASPs roughly 50-100% higher than key competitors for MEMs/solid state lidar. While Luminar attributes this higher ASP in part to software, and we believe it has some opportunities in this regard, th...

  XPeng Inc. reported mixed Q4 2022 results and guidance for 2023. The CEO was very bullish on the traffic around the P7i launch and the potential of the new G6 vehicle. XPEV stock is cheap at 1x '23 sales targets with plenty of catalysts for growth, while the cash balance will limit downside risk if the company fails to hit targets. The Chinese EV manufacturer reported generally  mixed Q4'22 results , but the market is more focused on what  XPeng Inc.  ( NYSE: XPEV ) projected for 2023. The Chinese market has only slowly reopened, in a major disappointment to investors expecting a  quick ramp-up in demand. My  investment thesis  remains ultra-Bullish on the stock trading at the recent lows, while the rebound opportunity remains massive. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

  ZIM Integrated Shipping Services reported a solid Q4 2022 earnings beat while container shipping rates continue to plunge. The company announced a surprising $6.40 dividend payout for Q4, including a partial true-up of 14% for the year. ZIM Integrated Shipping stock is expensive, with the tough container shipping market likely to make hitting aggressive financial targets difficult, likely leading to an elimination of the dividend. After  reporting a beat  to Q4 earnings expectations,  ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd.  ( NYSE: ZIM ) rallied on hopes a strong dividend would continue. The management team provided a large range of financial outcomes for 2023 and investors  shouldn't assume the best possible outcome. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on the stock after this initial rally heading into a big dividend payout for Q4. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer p...

  Blade Air Mobility continues to build a leading urban air mobility platform, while others discuss future plans. The company is consolidating a fragmented business, with plans to approach $200 million in '23 revenues. Blade Air Mobility stock trades far below 1x EV/S targets for '23. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   As a lot of companies talk about an urban air mobility future,  Blade Air Mobility, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: BLDE ) continues to build the platform of the future. The company is locking in routes and customers using existing helicopters, awaiting the eventual  launch of EVAs (electric vertical aircraft). My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on the future UAM (urban air mobility) stock trading at the lows at $3.50 due to the banking crisis. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer...

  Meta Platforms is in the midst of surgical job cuts to potentially match the 11,000 employees cut back in November. The tech giant could cut another $5 billion from operating expenses and still leave a lot of cost reductions ahead in Reality Labs. META stock trades at 16x '24 EPS targets while the company has an earnings potential of up to $20 per share. With Silicon Valley in collapse mode after massive job cuts and now the primary bank for startups closing,  Meta Platforms  ( NASDAQ: META ) is now in a strong position to prudently cut costs. The social media giant  is poised to complete another massive job cut saving billions in costs. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on the stock even after the quick rally to $180, though a gap close below $160 would be a prime purchase point. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Update - March 13 Somehow United Airlines is down 5% to 6% in after hours after announcing '23 EPS is still on target to $10 to $12, yet the Q1 numbers will dip due to the pilot contract being signed in Q1, up from Q2.  United Airlines Holdings ( NASDAQ: UAL ) shares slumped after the bell on Monday after providing a pessimistic outlook for the first quarter of 2023. The company said that it now expects an adjusted loss per share between $0.60 and $1.00 in Q1  due to expenses related to “a potential new collective bargaining agreement with employees represented by the Air Line Pilots Association.” The airline had previously expected to accrue the expense in the second quarter. “The Company continues to see a strong demand environment and now expects first quarter 2023 total operating revenue to be up approximately 51% versus first quarte...

SoFi will benefit from a positive ruling by the Supreme Court against the student debt forgiveness plan. The bank sector came under undue pressure this week due to the sudden collapse of SVB. SOFI stock only trades at ~10x 2024 adjusted EBITDA targets. Anyone following our research over the last few months knows that  SoFi Technologies  ( NASDAQ: SOFI ) doesn't need a change in the Biden Administrations stance on student debt forgiveness to reward shareholders. The good news for  shareholders is that the Supreme Court appears set to block the debt forgiveness plan by June. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on the stock after the dip back below $6 following contagion fears due to the  SVB Financial Group  ( SIVB ) collapse. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

  Update - Mar. 10 Roku  Should get most of the cash back, but definitely an interesting development to have nearly $500M of cash at  Silicon Valley Bank.  Roku stock ( NASDAQ: ROKU ) turned  3.5% lower  after hours after the company stated that it held  about 26% of its cash and equivalents  at Silicon Valley Bank, which  failed Friday  and was closed down by California . Roku has total cash and equivalents of $1.9B, of which $487M was held at SVB - deposits that are "largely uninsured." "At this time, the Company does not know to what extent the Company will be able to recover its cash on deposit at SVB," Roku said. Original article posted on Feb. 17 Roku, Inc. reported Q4 2022 numbers that beat analyst estimates while guiding better than expected for Q1'23. The video streaming platform reported solid active accounts and streaming hours growth, supporting the ARK Invest base case. Roku stock is cheap at $70 at 2x forward sales, but Rok...

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. reported strong growth in FQ4'23, with revenues growing 48% YoY. The company continues to forecast sequential growth deceleration leading towards 30% growth as FY24 ends next January. CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. stock trades at over 10x FY24 sales targets, and analysts are dangerously promoting much richer valuations. Amazingly,  CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: CRWD ) rallied into quarterly earnings with the stock rallying back up to $130. The cloud cybersecurity firm reported another strong quarter, but the guidance still points towards dramatically slowing growth in the year ahead. My  investment thesis  remains ultra-Bearish on the stock on these rallies to premium valuations knowing the trend isn’t the friend of shareholders. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

  Under Armour, Inc. has traded down since reporting a solid FQ3'23 earnings report. The athletic apparel company still forecasts producing solid earnings despite a 425 basis point hit to gross margins. Under Armour stock is cheap based on earnings rebounding in FY24 as the promotional environment ends. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Some stocks just never seem to get a break, and  Under Armour, Inc.  ( NYSE: UA ,  NYSE: UAA ) falls into this category now. The athletic apparel company handled the inventory issue as best as possible throughout the  covid supply chain issues, yet the stock never got a benefit during the period. My  investment thesis  remains ultra-Bullish on the stock following the dip back below $10. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long UA. Please review the disclaimer page for more details....

Update - March 6 No surprise the government is looking to block the acquisition by JetBlue. The question is whether the DoJ actually has the right to block the merger. Besides, Spirit shareholders are likely better off without a deal. Regardless, the stock has fallen to the yearly and covid lows as the market apparently doesn't understand Spirit is better off without JetBlue.  Regulators are reportedly looking to block the prospective merger between JetBlue Airways ( NASDAQ: JBLU ) and Spirit Airlines ( NYSE: SAVE ), sending shares of the latter sliding. Both the Department of Transportation and Department of Justice are looking to  halt the deal on the grounds that the merger would be anti-competitive, according to Bloomberg. Per prior media reports, executives from the carriers met with the DOJ in late February  in a "last-rites" meeting  to assuage regulatory concerns on the planned merger. That meeting followed  reports earlier in February  that the dep...