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Showing posts with the label Central European Distribution

IB Net Payout Yields Model

Central European Distribution Hit by Currency

How to play a company hit by currency impacts when reporting in US Dollars, but still thriving in local currencies. Central European Distribution (CEDC) probably has the biggest impact that I've seen so far. The company is still forecasting as much as 25% growth in Poland and Russia, but due to the significant jumps in the Polish Zloty and Russian Ruble the company has cut 2009 forecasts by 35%. The stock price has crumbled and is now down nearly 90% yet the company still maintains huge growth. Maybe as an investor we should hedge our positions with a currency trade. Or maybe we should just buy on the inevitable rebound. Absent the currency impact this company would report $4 eps for '09 to go along with 25% growth. A good market would pay at least $100 for this stock, but it now trades for nearly $10. Or 4x the lowered estimaets of $2.5-2.80. reconfirming full year 2008 net sales guidance of $1.65-$1.80 billion and full year comparable fully diluted earnings per share guidan...