Out Fox The $treet

Monster Worldwide (MWW) closed up 19% on Friday due to more speculation on a buyout. According to a Reuters report, LinkedIn (LNKD) and private equity firm Silver Lake Partners were amongst numerous parties that expressed interest. Investors would be wise to not pay up on such a spike in the stock price. Monster placed itself on the auction block back at the end of February so such news shouldn't be a big surprise. Over the last three months just about every buyout related spike has led to cheaper buying opportunities within the next few days. Even more credulous about today's news was the speculation that LinkedIn would be interested in the company. Why in the world would a fast growing stock want to be bogged down by a deal with Monster? Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Long MWW. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

This model lost a disappointing 5.8% in March versus a 3.1% gain for the benchmark S&P 500. This model typical outpaces the major indices by a large margin in up periods so the last month was a major exception. Since the end of 2011, this model has been running on the theme that the majority of stocks would retrace the losses experienced since the July 2011 levels. In essence, our theory all along has been any losses since that time period were from irrational fear of a second financial collapse that the Europeans were unlikely to allow. Naturally this fluctuates on a case by case basis where any individual stock could move a lot higher or lower depending on circumstances since then. Unfortunately this theory took a major turn in March as investors piled into dividend paying stocks sending most major indices higher while at the same time selling the higher risk, global growth stocks. In some cases, it was just a small reversal of the gains from the last couple of ...

Anybody following the general market and especially this blog already knows about the CEO placing this company up for sale. See previous article on this blog with a link to an article I wrote for Seeking Alpha for more details. Today the stock for Monster Worldwide (MWW) is up another 4% mainly with the general market. Possibly though the technicians are jumping on board as the stock has finally broken a couple of downtrends the last few days. For numerous valuation reasons, it's very logical for the stock to continue pressing above $10 prior to any deal announcements. The biggest risk to price is the next earnings report in April when the attractive balance sheet and brand meets the weak earnings situation. Until then, I'd expect the stock to remain in an uptrend. The biggest question could possibly be whether to cash out if the stock hits in the $12-13 range prior to a deal or wait it out for a possible $15+ as a few analysts suggest might be possible in a deal. For n...

As we wrote back on Monday, the official announcement of Monster Worldwide (MWW) hiring an advisor was a promising sign. The CEO had mentioned on the 1st that the stock was too cheap and that the company would seek a strategic deal to enhance shareholder value. Then on the 2nd, Oppenheimer questioned the true seriousness of a deal causing the stock to sell off. Not too surprising to see some doubters as Monster is always rumored as a buyout candidate. A rumor that so far has not come true. This time though appears different. Monster has actually acknowledged the interest and followed through with the hiring of an advisor. Possibly suggesting that some of the rumors in the past came from executives unhappy with the stock price and contemplating a deal. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Long MWW. Read the disclaimer page for more details. 

A day after Oppenheimer questioned whether Monster Worldwide (MWW) was serious about selling the business, news leaked after the close that it had indeed hired investment bankers. Clearly this doesn't mean a deal will be done, but it shows the intent does exist. To step back a little, Monster's CEO had made an announcement at a conference earlier last week suggesting the company was looking for strategic alternatives to boost the stock price. The stock sprang up nearly 20% that day, but quickly settled back down as reality set in helped by Oppenheimer. Trading should be interesting tomorrow and the rest of the week. The stock remains very cheap and any real intent to sell the company could likely fetch numbers back towards the July level of $13-15. SunTrust analyst Tobey Sommer suggests an acquirer could ring out $100M in costs savings from reducing redundant management, marketing, and general administrative expenses. It has long been suggested that Monster has a bloated...

After a bad 2011, this year got off to a fantastic start with the model seeing a 25% gain in January easily outperforming the 4.4% gain for the S&P500. The model spent most of the month accumulating cheap stocks in order to take advantage of the market rallying against the proverbial 'wall of worry'. January was an interesting month with stocks rising even in the face of what appeared like continued negative news out of Europe. With the continued focus on Greece, most investors stayed out of the stock market and missed that yields on Italian and Spanish bonds saw dramatic declines. The ability to isolate the problems to Greece and Portugal to a lessor extent were a big relief to a market pricing in a European blowup in December. In addition, the decline in emerging markets inflation was a big benefit to the under performing stock class in the new year. Specifically fast growing countries like China and India saw multi year lows in inflation rates allowing monetary polic...

After a strong 2009 and 2010, 2011 was a year to forget for this portfolio. The market hit highs around the end of April and this model was soaring to new heights at the time. Many of the holdings had valuations nowhere near the 2007/08 peaks or even close to what would normally be considered rich. Regardless, leverage was reduced since some gains were significant. Then, unfortunately most of the stocks collapsed and even in a few cases approached 2009 lows. With too much leverage left, the model was hit very hard. The good news is that valuations started the year as attractive as during the financial collapse of 2009. 2012 Outlook Portfolio Construction The portfolio remains overweight on the global growth theme. Most of the stocks in this sector trade as if emerging markets are headed towards a recession instead of continued growth. The biggest challenge to our investment strategy in 2011 was the major inflation fears in emerging markets like China, India, and Brazil. As 201...

The more I look at charts of the stocks I own and follow, I keep seeing a similar pattern of either strong support or the inverse head & shoulders chart. Not a technical expert, but viewing the charts gives a good picture of what the market thinks about a stock.  Below are some of the stocks that appear setup for a inverse head & shoulders chart which would be very bullish if the stock can break to the upside. Most of them are on the borderline of the right shoulder extending too far so a resolution is likely on the way. Either a breakdown to test a double bottom or a breakout back to potentially the July highs. For many stocks that would be significantly higher.  Weatherford Int'l (WFT) - oil services stock so not surprising that it has similar pattern to the OIH that Cramer profiled a few days ago.  Lincoln Financial (LNC) - not a very well defined left shoulder, but it still has the same binary setu...

The Monster Employment Index Europe demonstrated year-over-year growth of 18 percent. Thought Europe was headed to a massive recession? Ok, the index is actually flat to down since peaking at 140 in June. Clearly the trend is not optimal, but it's not as dire as most in the media would suggest. The top growth areas were Engineering, Manufacturing, Transport, Telecommunication, and Real Estate. Clearly Europe lacks the mining and oil exploration growth that the US is seeing. This has and will be a major hamper to their economy as growing commodity prices can't be escaped via production increases. The regional data is much more telling. Germany continues to soar up 37% YOY while all other regions have seen major declines since June. Even Belgium, France, Netherlands, and Sweden have seen declines. Not surprising to see Italy drop, but it does highlight why Germany wants the European Union to survive. The weakness in the other European countries is holding down the euro and m...

Considering the weak government jobs report today, its interesting that the Monster Employment Index (MEI) hit a post recession high in August. With the doubts over the validity of the government report, why not look at this index instead combined with ADP and jobless claims. All of the other jobs reports were mostly encouraging. Jobless claims have been flat around 400K, ADP showed 91K jobs gained, and the household survey had 330K in gains. Honestly Stone Fox hasn't used the MEI in the past so understanding what the data represents isn't probably 100% accurate. The MEI is reportedly a gauge of US online job demand based on real-time review of millions of employer job opportunities culled from a large representative selection of career Web sites. So clearly the index could have issues with certain firms moving hiring decisions to the internet or the Web sites used lacking key representation. Logically any company probably wouldn't still be in busines if they just now...

Ok, so that's a catchy title to correspond with the new Facebook app that Monster Worldwide ( MWW ) created to counter the trend towards social media recruiting especially by LinkedIn ( LNKD ). In reality, 2011 has been the year to not own MWW. Clearly any investor holding this top S&P 500 loser all year doesn't want to be known by the public. Times might be changing though as anybody buying since mid August could've participated in the 21% gain on Tuesday. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No positions, but might purchase MWW within the next 72 hours. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.