Out Fox The $treet

Based on Nielsen's November estimates, ESPN owned by Disney (DIS) is collapsing faster than expected. The networks of ESPN, ESPN2, and ESPNU all lost over 600K subscribers for November alone.

AT&T reported Q3 numbers that fail to prove out the benefits of the DirecTV deal. The bundling of services has failed to add the most important subscribers. The large debt load makes the synergies in the Time Warner deal a must and the outcome of the DirecTV integration highly questions a positive outcome. In the midst of agreeing to buy Time Warner (NYSE: TWX ), AT&T (NYSE: T ) rushed out  Q3 earnings  a few days early. The biggest issue is that the synergy benefits from DirecTV aren't showing up in the results. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

According to a survey conducted by Bernstein ( via Benzinga), most buy-side analysts expect the deal between AT&T (T) and Time Warner (TWX) to eventually obtain approval. An amazing 84% of the participants in the survey expect AT&T to close the deal, yet Time Warner trades far below the $107.50 offer price.

As reported on Friday, AT&T (T) agreed to purchase Time Warner (TWX) for $107.50 per share. The deal brings together a distribution leader in the form of the wireless network operated by AT&T and the content owned by Time Warner. The deal could be a big victory for the Net Payout Yields model on Covestor where Time Warner has been a long-term holding. The company has long repurchased a large portion of the outstanding stock while paying a decent dividend that recently yielded nearly 2%. The big question is where the stock will trade on Monday with 50% of the value based on whether AT&T breaks the downside collar. As well, the market will likely fear whether the regulators will approve this merger of mega-media giants. Ultimately, a decent price on Monday provides an opportune time to exit a long-term position at the top. Here is hoping to a big pop at the start of trading. Below are links to more detailed reports on my opinions on the merger. WhoTrades Time Warn...

Summary DISH Network begins offering limited pay-TV services online. The satellite TV operator has a first mover advantage, but the service doesn't appear to offer anything proprietary that couldn't be replicated or enhanced. Content providers with the best content will benefit the most from these scaled-down online packages that feature only top channels such as ESPN and TNT. DISH Network (NASDAQ: DISH ) made the interesting announcement last week that it is joining the over-the-top revolution for pay-TV services. The company follows recent announcements by Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX ) HBO and CBS (NYSE: CBS ) to offer subscription services online to compete with Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX ) due to the increasing amount of consumers that are cutting the cord. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Long TWX. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Summary Twenty-First Century Fox's pursuit of Time Warner probably isn't over. Valuations in the group are becoming stretched. Time Warner solidly beat Q2 '14 earnings estimates, increasing the value of the company to a bidder. A few weeks ago, the revelation that Twenty-First Century Fox (NASDAQ: FOXA ) (NASDAQ: FOX ) offered to purchase Time Warner (NYSE: TWX ) sent the latter's stock surging roughly 17% for the day. The stock sat around the offer price of $85 for a few weeks providing the opportunity to sell it at a solid price before the 12% drop today. The offer for the content giant is another step in the cable wars though it may not materialize into a merger now. The initial moves to consolidate the cable networks in the case of Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA ) (NASDAQ: CMCSK ) buying Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC ) is leading the content providers to look into ways of bulking up. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha....

Back when it released its  Q2 2013 earnings report , Viacom ( NASDAQ: VIAB     ) announced that it would double its stock buyback plan to $20 billion from the previous $10 billion. Most investors have a negative view of stock buybacks, but research shows that significant buybacks that reduce share counts tend to outperform the market. The diversified media entertainment sector appears overly competitive, but the sector in general has outperformed the S&P 500 over the last couple of years. One thing that the general group has shared as a whole is the desire to buy shares back over time. Some of the companies like Walt Disney ( NYSE: DIS     ) and Time Warner ( NYSE: TWX     ) weren't as aggressive in the last year, but the buybacks have continued to set the group apart. Read the full article here . Disclosure: Long TWX. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

After successful splits of Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC ) and AOL (NYSE: AOL ) in 2009, Time Warner (NYSE: TWX ) is attempting another spin-off. This time the company hopes to separate the struggling magazine producer, Time, Inc. Will this spin be as successful? Time Warner is a global leader in media and entertainment with businesses in television networks, film and TV entertainment and publishing. Time, Inc. is a leading magazine producer more » Disclosure: Long TWX. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

This model was up 0.01% in November versus a 0.3% gain for the benchmark S&P 500. The model slightly under performed the market in November, which can happen in solidly positive months. As of the end of November, the model was up nearly 20% for the year compared to 12.5% for the S&P 500.   In general, the model had a very uneventful month with flat returns and no trades. Bottom Performers While the model was flat for the month, several stocks had meaningful moves in November. The weakest stocks were Kohl’s Corporation (KSS), WellPoint, Inc. (WLP) and Entergy Corporation (ETR) . Kohl’s lost nearly 16% due to a weak earnings report at the end of the month. The stock plunged from nearly $51 to below $46 on disappointing sales. The company continues a large buyback and should be able to load up on shares at these attractive levels. WellPoint plunged at the beginning of November due to the re-election of President Barack Obama, which secure...

--> This model was up 2.1% in September versus a 2.4% gain for the benchmark S&P 500. The model slightly under performed the market in September, which can happen in solidly positive months. The model is now up over 20% for the year. Trades As mentioned in the last several monthly reports, one goal of this model is to slowly trim the amount of positions back closer to 20 after reaching 26 a few months back due to mergers and partial positions. The position count remained at 24 at month end, but a partial position in Vale S.A. (VALE) was increased in order to fill out the position. The Gap, Inc. (GPS) was sold, as the position became the largest one in the portfolio after an incredible gain by the stock. After a 100% gain for the year, the Net Payout Yields (NPY) declined to the point that Gap was no longer attractive for this model. Read our Seeking Alpha article for more details. With the cash from the Gap sell, Motorola Solutions (MSI) was purchased ...

This article is a continuation of a series highlighting the top net payout yield stocks that was started in June (see article) and repeated in July (see article). The series is meant to highlight the best stocks for the upcoming month so this report is clearly late. Though with the majority of the month left, it is still worth reviewing last month's results and the updated list as of data from August 10th. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Long all positions mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

This model was up 5.2% in June versus a 4.0% gain for the benchmark S&P 500. As expected the model jumped back after a weak May as investors jumped back into high yielding stocks. Trade No trades were made this month, but several stocks remain on the radar to sell as dividend stocks continue to outperform the market. Some of these stocks are reaching valuation levels were capital gains are likely to be limited for possibly the next few years. Bottom Performers With a strong market in June, it is always worthwhile to review the losing stocks to confirm the long term story remains intact. The model ended the month with 26 stocks, which is slightly higher than normal, and only two stocks had a negative price change. WellPoint (WLP) was particularly weak following the Supreme Courts upholding of Obamacare.  The stock had a nice gain for June until the ruling came out and caused the stock to plummet from near $70 to close the month at $63.79. The company ha...

Not too surprisingly, the top net payout yield stocks from June (see article ) remained mostly intact as the month ended. Only Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) was confirmed as a new addition to the list. Both Ameriprise Financial, Inc. (AMP) and Time Warner Inc. (TWX) tied for tenth on the July list with a 15.37% yield. So technically, no stock rolled off the list. The Covestor model typically holds over 20 stocks so neither stock would need to be sold, but anybody playing at home with ten stocks could just leave the model alone in order to avoid trading costs. Look to add Motorola Solutions to the model as one of those stocks lowers the yield via more stock gains or the reduction of a buyback. For those not familiar with net payout yields, it is the combination of the dividend yield and the net buyback yield. In essence, it is the percentage paid to investors. A typical fund focuses on dividends while some focus on buybacks, but recent history has shown that the stocks paying the l...

After a big selloff, the advantages of Net Payout Yield stocks really comes into focus. These companies benefit from the strategic ability to repurchase shares and issue dividends. The market is currently enamored with dividend stocks, but those stocks don't exactly benefit investors when the stock drops. Investors are stuck with capital losses while collecting dividends, but the company can't do anything with the lower stock price to benefit shareholders. Companies that participate in large buybacks though have the ability to repurchase shares at much cheaper levels now. This benefit has largely been ignored by the markets over the years with the general sentiment that share repurchases aren't effective. The key though is that most investors don't focus on net share repurchases. Companies that greatly reduce the stock float provide more earnings for shareholders. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Long AMP, COP, DTV, GPS, GS, KSS, and TWX. Please...

This model gained a solid 4.3% in March versus 3.1% for the benchmark S&P 500. The model remained strong all month even as the SP500 struggled toward the end of the month.   Trade March was a normal trading month for this model with only 1 trade initiated in order to reduce the cash balance. Time Warner (TWX) was bought as the stock flashed one of the highest Net Payout Yields in the over $10B market cap group with a huge buyback. The stock also maintains a strong 2.9% dividend providing for that investor class as well. For more details on why Time Warner was selected, please read this article . Top Performers The largest gains came from Lowes (LOW) , WellPoint (WLP) , Gap (GPS) , and Goldman Sachs (GS) along with several other stocks that had solid gains. Most of those stocks saw gains that exceeded 10%. Typical of a model that allows for trading signals based on an indicator such as the Net Payout Yield, a stock like Goldman Sachs was purchased ...

Which company is a better investment at this point: Time Warner Cable (TWC) or Time Warner (TWX) ? I bet most investors wonder if the answer isn't none of the above. From a high level, both stocks offer nearly 3% dividends, making the stocks attractive to a large swath of investors. What about for investors that want the 4%+ dividend yielders? Let's first review these two companies that split back in 2009. Overview: Time Warner Cable The company is among the largest providers of video, high-speed data and phone services in the United States, connecting more than 14.5 million customers in 29 states to entertainment, information and each other. Time Warner Cable Business Class offers data, video, and phone services to businesses of all sizes, cell tower backhaul services to wireless carriers, and through its NaviSite subsidiary, enterprise-class hosting, managed application, messaging and cloud services. Time Warner Cable Media, the advertising arm of Time Warner Cable, offers na...