Out Fox The $treet

Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Update - June 24, 2024 Carnival reported a h uge quarter with massive cash flows. Not sure why the market got so negative on the stock, but the cruise line is now far more profitable than thought. The  $17 stock likely has earnings power of up to $2 in a few years.  -Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.11 beats by $0.13. -Revenue of $5.78B (+17.7% Y/Y) beats by $90M. -Total customer deposits reached an all-time high of $8.3 billion, surpassing the previous record by $1.1 billion ($7.2 billion as of May 31, 2023). Original article posted on May 13, 2024 Carnival Corporation & plc stock has trended down to $14, providing an opportunity for investors to buy back in. The upcoming August quarter is expected to bring strong earnings finally for Carnival, with a quarterly profit topping $1 per share. Carnival's positive cash flows will help bo...

Update - Dec. 8, 2023 Carnival is already up over 30% since the last bullish call in late September and over 50% above the late October lows. The cruise lines are set to power ahead with massive earnings in 2024 and debt repayment will only further boost profits. CCL has at least a $2 to $3 EPS in out years.  Original article posted on Sept. 27  Carnival Corporation & plc is expected to report a strong quarter with a forecasted large profit after years of massive losses. Carnival is focused on reducing its debt, with plans to repay $8 billion in the next 3 years based on strong cash flows. The stock is cheap at 10x EV/EBITDA targets and with expectations for EPS to regain $2+ in the next few years. Out Fox The Street members get exclusive access to our real-world portfolios. See all of our investments  here »   The cruise ship stocks have fallen the last couple of months, but  Carnival Corporation & plc  ( NYSE: CCL ) is set to report a blockbuster ...

Update - June 27, 2023 The market originally sold off the cruise lines due to Carnival mentioning higher costs, yet the cruise line upped Adjusted EBITDA targets for the year. The market is acting a lot more rational here with Carnival up over 8%.  -Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.31 beats by $0.02. -Revenue of $4.9B (+104.2% Y/Y) beats by $130M. -The company saw continued acceleration of demand, with total bookings made during the quarter reaching a new all-time high for all future sailings. Booking volumes for the second quarter exceeded the first quarter's booking volumes, which was the previous record high. -Q3 Outlook: Adjusted EBITDA of $2.05 billion to $2.15 billion, a significant improvement compared to the second quarter of 2023 and adjusted net income of $0.95 billion to $1.05 billion; Occupancy of 107% or higher. -FY2023 Outlook: Adjusted EBITDA of $4.10 billion to $4.25 billion, above March guidance's range and with a midpoint increase of $175 million Original article posted...

  Update Mar. 28, 2023 After reporting a better than expected quarter, investors shouldn't take the FY23 guidance to heart. The cruise line continues to head back to normal operations with massive profits in the years ahead. Carnival shouldn't be trading near all-time lows.  Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.55  beats by $0.05 . Revenue of $4.43B (+166.7% Y/Y)   beats by $130M . Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2023 was $382 million, better than the December guidance range of $250 million to $350 million, despite a $31 million  unfavorable impact from fuel price and currency rates since December guidance. Outlook: Adjusted EBITDA of $3.9 billion to $4.1 billionIncludes approximately $0.5 billion unfavorable impact from fuel price and currency compared to 2019 Sequential improvement in each quarter in adjusted EBITDA per ALBD compared to 2019, driven by closing the gap in occupancy to 2019 levels while achieving net per diems above 2019 levels Original art...

  Royal Caribbean reported a solid Q4'22 earnings report, but most importantly guided to a big 2023 EPS of over $3. Carnival already forecast a solid adjusted EBITDA boost in the weak FQ1'23 in a sign this year was going to be vastly improved. The stock is cheap at $12 with peers already guiding to 2025 EPS targets topping 2019 peak levels amounting to a $4+ EPS target for Carnival. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   The cruise line stocks have seen a strong rally in early 2023 due in part to the likely end of tax-loss selling as the calendar turned to the new year.  Carnival Corp.  ( NYSE: CCL ) is now primed for a strong WAVE season following the earnings report of a cruise line peer. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on the stock trading far below prior peak levels with clear signs business is about to boom this year. Read the full article on Seeking...

  Carnival is priced for a restrictive Covid environment with the stock at $9. Canada and China are starting to remove Covid restrictions setting the cruise line for a full recovery in 2023. The stock remains too cheap at $9 with full earnings power of $2.50 to $3.00 a share once stripping out $1+ billion in additional interest expenses. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   The only part of the puzzle holding Carnival Corp. ( NYSE: CCL ) and the cruise line sector back from a full recovery were some lingering Covid restrictions. The sector got extremely good news from a couple of very restrictive areas on Monday. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on the stock due to a more than full recovery in the sector ongoing while the stock trades at the recent lows. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer pag...

  Carnival reported FQ2'22 results showing a positive trajectory in the business, though far from perfect. The cruise line indicated strong booking trends for 2023 as consumers are able to plan for trips without worries of travel restrictions. The stock is cheap at $10 with normalized earnings at $3 per share, as debt is repaid and interest expenses are cut. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   In no huge surprise,  Carnival Corp.  ( NYSE: CCL ) reported a quarter of  improving results . The largest cruise line didn't report a perfect quarter, but the company and the sector continues to head back  to more normal times in the travel and leisure sector. My  investment thesis  is very Bullish on the stock after the dip back towards the COVID lows, which was ill-timed considering the dynamics of the business are far improved now. Read the full article on Seeking ...

  Carnival reported another difficult quarter due to the Omicron variant, but the cruise line is now a month away from operating at full capacity. The company forecasts turning EBITDA profitable within months and generating a profit in FQ3'22. The stock is exceptionally cheap with a clear path back to a $3+ EPS. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » While  Carnival  ( NYSE: CCL ) didn't report a perfect quarter for the period ending in February, the cruise line is moving ahead towards a full recovery. The company is now on the verge of returning  to strong profits with full operations launching by May. My  investment thesis  remains Bullish on the stock while the market focuses too much on short-term issues, such as higher fuel prices. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - Apr...

  Carnival continues to rally when the market expects travel demand to rebound. The company is still operating far below full capacity and burning cash on a monthly basis. The stock doesn't offer the same value as certain airline stocks while holding more recovery risks. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » The cruise line stocks ended up 10% on December 6 due to reduced Omicron fears, but the sector should've been rocked by news of more covid cases on an actual cruise.  Carnival Corporation  ( CCL ) remains too risky compared to the airline industry for investors wanting a travel related investment. My  investment thesis  remains more Neutral on the stock due to the extra risks. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - Dec. 28 More reasons to...