Out Fox The $treet

Poster on one of my favorite blogs, Seekingalpha.com, has a good analysis of the latest info from the ECRI. Anybody following me of late knows that I'm a big fan of studies that focus on the meaning of economic indicators. Whether they are leading, coincidence, or lagging. The Conference Board as a very recognized Leading Indicators that has been pointing up for the last few months. The ECRI has a weekly report this is now showing 7% growth. Now this doesn't translate directly to the GDP rate, but it does predict that the economy is likly to begin growing at a sharp clip. Most analysts that point still have a dire outlook point out that the economy has huge unemployment issues and surely can't start growing until we correct this jobs issue. It seems pretty incredible that anybody claiming to be an economists would ever use a laggigng indicator like jobs. If anythink the massive jobs lost in this Great Recession is what will lead to a strong recovery. Slack in an economy ...

Reading all of the economic news of late, its become important to focus on the leading versus lagging indicators in this economy. The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) has long been a forecaster of economic cycles and was even very accurate that the 2008 recession would get worse back in March 2008 when a whole slew of economists thought we might even skirt a recession. According to their latest report , the weekly cycle indicators they use continue to show that the recession is in the process of ending. This is contrary to all the news you've probably read since the June jobs report was released last Thursday morning. Jobs of course are a lagging indicator and it amazes me how many economic 'experts' reported that the economy couldn't recover until the jobs improved. Yet every recession has ended long before jobs improve. That's why its so crucial to understand leading versus lagging indicators. I'll have to admit that I'm not all that familiar wit...