Showing posts from July, 2022

IB Net Payout Yields Model

Shopify: Encouraging Signs, But A Tough 2H Ahead

Shopify reported a mixed quarter with solid revenue growth, but the company missed analyst estimates. The e-commerce platform completed a 10% staff reduction but still plans to grow employees for the year. The company forecasts more operating losses in the 2H of the year, highlighting how the business was mismanaged following a period of strong growth. The stock isn't appealing at 6x sales with large operating losses, but Shopify appears to have bottomed at $30. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   How a stock trades after disappointing results is just as important as the actual results in the short term.  Shopify  ( NYSE: SHOP ) has had a bad week with discussions of major layoffs and a big  Q2'22 earnings miss , yet the stock held prior lows. My  investment thesis  is a lot more constructive on the stock following the kitchen sink quarter, but the stretched valuation leaves the view at Neutra

Curaleaf: Legalization Not Needed

  Senate Democrats finally introduce a cannabis bill with the potential for approval. Curaleaf continues poised to benefit from recreational cannabis legalization in the tri-state area adding ~$10 billion in additional revenues to the market. The stock remains cheap at just 8x conservative '23 adjusted EBITDA targets. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   The Senate Democrats finally releasing a bill gives some slim hopes of Federal legislation on cannabis.  Curaleaf Holdings  ( OTCPK:CURLF ) stands to benefit from such legislation while still holding the wild card of significant growth from Northeast  markets without Federal approval. My  investment thesis  remains ultra bullish on the stock after the inexplicable dip to $5 recently. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - Sept. 1 Very interesting deal

Twitter: No Code Red Here

  Twitter falls 7% after Elon Musk announces plans to terminate the acquisition of the social media company for $54.20. The company appears to have a rock-solid contract to force Mr. Musk to complete the deal or settle for a sum in excess of the $1 billion breakup fee. Based on a per mDAU value, Twitter has already lost 60% of their value since the covid peak last year. The stock has immediate 60% upside on the unlikely close of the deal, or a larger user base to support higher stock prices when the economy improves. Elon Musk attempting to terminate the  Twitter  ( NYSE: TWTR ) merger is no surprise. The unknown has always been any outcome of an attempt by the social media company to sue Musk. Either way, Twitter doesn't face a  'code red' event  as suggested by a prominent analyst. My  investment thesis  remains ultra-bullish on the stock following a likely dip, as traders exit a position with a hoped for outcome of $54.20 per share. Read the full article on Seeking Alph

Alphabet Wins Big Or Apple Loses

  Apple trades at a premium valuation in the tech sector, but Alphabet is forecasted to far exceed the growth rates of Apple. Alphabet has the potential to out-innovate Apple in the key AV and AR/VR device segments, where Apple has the bigger hype. Due to innovation dynamics, growth, and valuation, Alphabet is poised to rally in a bull market while Apple could collapse in further market weakness rewarding a short position. The pair trade pays off because the opposite investment should remain flat in both scenarios. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   One of the better pair trades to execute right now is going long  Alphabet  ( NASDAQ: GOOG ) ( NASDAQ: GOOGL ) and short  Apple  ( NASDAQ: AAPL ). Both companies fall into the FAANG group of  giant tech stocks out of favor in the current market, but Apple remains far too beloved in comparison to Alphabet. Not to mention, one of the more long-term bullish