Posts

Showing posts from September, 2022

IB Net Payout Yields Model

Eve Holding: Too Early To Play Impressive Backlog

  Eve announces another non-binding order to add to an existing strong order book. The eVTOL manufacturer doesn't forecast obtaining certification until 2026 with production of up to 75 aircraft that year. The stock isn't appealing after surging back above $10 while competitors trade at major discounts to SPAC prices. The SPAC market has been so beaten up that it's rare to see a de-SPAC deal trading above $10.  Eve Holding  ( NYSE: EVEX ) is one such stock in the urban air mobility sector with a promising backlog of eVTOL  orders. My investment thesis is more Neutral on the valuation due to the lengthy certification process and non-binding orders for this eVTOL manufacturer. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Carnival: Restrictions Ending Are A Big Positive

Image
  Carnival is priced for a restrictive Covid environment with the stock at $9. Canada and China are starting to remove Covid restrictions setting the cruise line for a full recovery in 2023. The stock remains too cheap at $9 with full earnings power of $2.50 to $3.00 a share once stripping out $1+ billion in additional interest expenses. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   The only part of the puzzle holding Carnival Corp. ( NYSE: CCL ) and the cruise line sector back from a full recovery were some lingering Covid restrictions. The sector got extremely good news from a couple of very restrictive areas on Monday. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on the stock due to a more than full recovery in the sector ongoing while the stock trades at the recent lows. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.   Update

Digital World: Dumpster Fire Grows

Image
  Digital World Acquisition Corp. has now lost some PIPE investors due to the delay in getting the SPAC approved and the reduced stock price. The SPAC still lacks the votes for the extension providing another year to close the SPAC deal. The stock has too many red flags to own at $16. The bad news for Digital World Acquisition Corp. ( NASDAQ: DWAC ) just continues to add up. The SPAC taking former President Donald Trump's Truth Social public is struggling to close the deal due to SEC issues and  the lack of retail investor votes. My  investment thesis  remains very Bearish on the stock, warning investors to stay on the sidelines until better information exists. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - Oct. 13 The addition of Truth Social to the Google Play store is definitely a positive for Digital World, but it doesn't change the dynamics of an over valued SPAC to avoid.  Trump SP

Qualcomm: New Era

  Qualcomm hosted an Auto Investor Day on September 22 to highlight the booming business in the auto sector. The wireless chip company enters a new era with business quickly shifting into the Autotech sector with a design-win pipeline surging to $30 billion. The stock shouldn't trade at only 9x EPS FY23 targets. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Only a few years ago,  Qualcomm  ( NASDAQ: QCOM ) didn't have much of a business beyond smartphones. Now, the wireless chip giant hosted an  Auto Investor Day  due to surging demand and a growing order  book. My  investment thesis  is ultra-Bullish on the stock due to the cheap valuation on the dip to $120 and the growth opportunities outside of handsets. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long QCOM. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Intel: Mobileye Trap

  The Mobileye IPO price has been cut by 40% to start. Intel continues to face delays and lower valuations for assets impacting the value of the stock. Investors should avoid the stock until the business has hit rock bottom and an actual turn has occurred. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Day after day,  Intel  ( NASDAQ: NASDAQ: INTC ) continues to cut expectations leading to less shareholder value. The latest news has the long expected Mobileye IPO coming out at a much lower valuation leading to less funds raised by the  chip giant. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on the stock. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Rumble: Wait For Post SPAC Discount

Image

Spirit Airlines: Wait For The Payout

Image
  Spirit Airlines has at least 44% upside on closing the JetBlue deal. The airline deal still has a lot of questions on whether regulators will approve the merger. The stock is cheap whether the deal closes at $33.50 per share in cash or the airline and shareholders get a large breakup fee and Spirit remains a standalone airline. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   While long term investors should've wanted the  Frontier Group Holdings'  ( ULCC ) buyout of  Spirit Airlines  ( NYSE: SAVE ), those investors must now analyze the  JetBlue Airways  ( JBLU ) deal. The agreed  upon purchase price provides substantial upside to the stock while holding Spirit Airlines offers downside protection on a deal failure. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on the stock, though disappointed shareholders didn't approve the merger with Frontier. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: L

Pinterest: Positive Signs Lining Up

Image
  Pinterest is starting to see positive signs with the stock stabilizing above $20. Social media peer Snap provided a positive sign the ad market has stabilized potentially at a higher level. The company has the CEO in place to explore social commerce and boost ARPU placing the forward P/S multiple at 4.5x as historically cheap. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   While  Pinterest  ( NYSE: PINS ) was one of the first companies to feel the pinch from normalized covid demand, the social media company is now starting to see positive signs of a turnaround. The market got far too negative on  the sector with the stock stabilizing around the pre-covid levels of $20. My  investment thesis  is ultra Bullish on the stock still trading in the bargain bin. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - Sept. 9  Pinterest