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Showing posts from April, 2021

Twitter: Not So Disappointing

  Twitter disappointed the market with Q1 mDAUs and revenues. The social media platform comped tough pulled forward numbers while remaining on target for long-term goals. The stock is now cheap trading far below EV/S multiples of peers. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » After really strong user growth due to virus lockdowns last year,  Twitter  ( TWTR ) faces some tough comps this year. The stock is falling due to an overreaction to solid mDAU growth in Q1 that  missed analyst targets . My  investment thesis  remains very bullish on Twitter, especially on a major dip. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long TWTR. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update July 22 Big Q2 numbers from $ TWTR . The company has now consistently grown users changing the investment thesis. -Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.20 beats by $0.13 -Revenue of $1.19B (+74.1% Y/Y) beats by $130M. -Monetizabl

Teladoc Health: Expected Slowdown

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  Teladoc Health reports strong Q1 financials. The telehealth platform provider provided company metrics showing the business peaked for this cycle. The stock trades at an expensive 11x forward revenues, considering the tough comps for the year. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » Despite  Teladoc Health  ( TDOC ) forecasting that business will still top the COVID-19 boost in most metrics, the stock is falling by nearly 10%. The telehealth provider is forecasting a major slowdown in new members and total visit growth for the year as the company faces tough comps. My  investment thesis  remains bearish on the stock for now. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Update - May 6 The stock for Teladoc Health continues to be line with more and more competition. First, Amwell (AMWL) apparently took Pepsi as a customer and now Walmart (WMT) is buying a competitor.  Teladoc Health  (NYSE:

AEye: Not Just Another Lidar SPAC

  AEye plans to go public in combination with the CF Acquisition Corp. III SPAC. The stock currently trades at the $10 PIPE price where a strong list of strategic investors plan to acquire shares. The stock trades at ~3x '26 revenue targets. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » AEye may have been the last of the Lidar technology companies to agree to a SPAC deal, but the company doesn't appear to be the least in the sector based on investors. About two months ago, AEye agreed to a  business combination  with  CF Acquisition Corp. III  ( CFAC ) to go public. My investment thesis is slightly bullish on this stock at the PIPE price of $10. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Spirit Airlines: Good Days Are Back

  Spirit Airlines forecast strong financial targets for Q2/Q3. The airline is poised to grow the fleet by a 15% CAGR going forward. The stock is cheap at $37 as EPS targets start pointing toward $4-plus. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » Despite U.S. airline traffic only recently topping 50% of 2019 levels, Spirit Airlines ( SAVE ) already is back to operating close to normal. As yields rise, the airline will start generating solid profits in the next few quarters. My  investment thesis  remains very bullish on Spirit Airlines as the stock is poised to return to previous highs. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long SAVE. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Innoviz: Lidar SPAC Trading At $10

  Innoviz Tech. recently completed a SPAC deal to go public in the Lidar space. The stock traded below the key $10 threshold. The stock trades at only 1.8x EV/2025 revenue multiple, but the company appears to lack the contracts to support a revenue target of $581 million. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » The once hot Lidar SPACs have seen several stocks break the key $10 threshold. One such Lidar and perception software company is  Innoviz Technologies  ( INVZ ), now trading back above $10 after closing the  SPAC deal  recently on April 6. My investment thesis is more Neutral on the stock due to a lack of visibility on contracts in comparison to other Lidar stocks. Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Payoneer: On Track For A Big 2021

  Payoneer reaffirmed strong 2021 financial targets, including 25% revenue growth. The SPAC had fallen back to the $10 PIPE price providing an ideal entry level along with big institutions. The stock trades at an EV of only 7.6x '21 sales targets. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » As SPACs fall out of favor, an attractive business combination such as the deal for  FTAC Olympus Acquisition  (FTOC, FTOCU) to combine with Payoneer is even more appealing now. The global payments market has decades of growth ahead as more companies move to digital payments and the existing companies grow. My  investment thesis  is even more bullish as investors can acquire the digital payments leader for the same price as major institutions. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long PAYO. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - July 1 A few days after closing the SPAC deal, Bear C

Aphria: Avoid After Another Ugly Quarter

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  Aphria reported horrible FQ3 results for the period ending February. The Canadian cannabis company only generates 35% of revenue from cannabis sales. The stock is far too expensive with a $4.4 billion market valuation and their prime business only generating ~$210 million in run-rate revenues. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » Heading into the  Tilray  ( TLRY ) merger close,  Aphria  ( APHA ) reported a horrible quarter. The company further confirmed why overpaying for Canadian cannabis stocks is never warranted. My  investment thesis  remains negative on Aphria and the new entity despite a nearly 50% dip from the peak in February. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Update - May 3 The deal closes with the new Tilray having a $8 billion valuation. The current FY revenue target is only $790 million, but the numbers include $350 million in non-cannabis revenues. The company just