Posts

Showing posts with the label Birinyi

IB Net Payout Yields Model

5 Stages of Grief for Optimistic Dyslexics

Laszlo Birinyi remains one of our favorite market prognosticators with his willingness to literally stick his neck on the line with very bullish calls that the market will at least exceed 2,000 in the next 13 months. In other stories, he has even predicted the eventual bull market could top out around double the current level. Considering the typical analysts will hardly predict 1,450 on the market much less 1,500 his prediction really sticks out. Most analysts still debate whether the market will avoid another recession and anybody predicting doom and gloom obtains more press coverage. Below are some details and a clip from his interview on Breakout.  My only concern is that uber-bear and host Jeff Macke sure appears to be turning bullish. Or at least he doesn't push back on Laszlo that much allowing his bullish case to remain unscathed. Birinyi puts the market into context via a model which categorizes a bull move into a template of four phases. Think of it as the 5-stage...

Don't Expect a Market Correction Anytime This Year or Next

As the two year anniversary of this bull market that started in March 2009 has come and gone, it's time to actually review some of the facts surrounding typical bull markets. From listening to numerous media reports yesterday, its common place for analysts and hosts to spew out information without researching the past. From this Bloomberg article , numerous real facts about the market were revealed. It's also revealing that alot of the players that called the bottom remain bullish and alot of the cronies that called for a further correction are still bearish. Sometimes it makes you wonder if any of the so called bears had any real insight other then a broken clock is correct twice a day. It also makes me wonder if we'll say the same about the bulls down the road. Clearly a two year rally without a 20% correction seems impressive and sounds like a very long time. At least thats what you get from the typical media. But is it really all that impressive? According to resear...