Out Fox The $treet

Update - Apr. 9, 2026 Palantir investors that didn't sell the stock at $200 face a precarious cliff at $130 here. The stock still trades at 40x forward sales and not much support down until $50.  Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Original article posted on Feb. 16 Palantir Technologies has already fallen substantially due to enterprise AI software stocks factoring in AI risk. PLTR reported impressive 70% growth in Q4, but the stock traded at over 100x sales at the peak. Claude Code from Anthropic is suddenly an AI threat due to coding skills, while the company is now bigger than Palantir. The stock still trades at 43x forward sales, while premium software stocks in IGV trade at less than 10x forward sales. Not long ago,  Palantir Technologies, Inc.  ( PLTR ) appeared invincible. The stock soared to nearly $210, and investors appeared unconcerned about val...

    Palo Alto Networks, Inc. faces valuation pressure from AI-driven competition and slowing organic growth despite platformization efforts. Recent large acquisitions—CyberArk and Chronosphere—signal gaps in PANW's platform strategy and introduce integration risks. Organic revenue growth is decelerating, with FQ3 organic guidance at only 13% and legacy business showing signs of slowdown. PANW stock still trades at 41x FY27 EPS, with a $120 valuation target, reflecting AI risks and premium multiples. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Palo Alto Networks, Inc. ( PANW ), has slumped back towards the yearly lows due to the AI threat. Even if AI doesn't replace cybersecurity, the threat will continue hitting the  valuation multiples  of the  stock. My i nvestment thesis  remains Bearish on the stock due to its expensive valuation compared to the ...

  Cipher Mining, rebranding as Cipher Digital, is pivoting from bitcoin mining to AI data center leasing, with major contracts secured. CIFR has $9.3 billion in long-term leases with AWS and Google, covering only a fraction of its 4+ GW power capacity, highlighting substantial future monetization potential. Despite near-term revenue gaps and execution risk, CIFR trades at 10x NOI from existing leases, with significant upside as additional contracts are secured. Future lease announcements and successful hyperscaler data center operations are key catalysts, while risks include execution uncertainty and potential shifts in data center demand. Cipher Mining Inc.  ( CIFR ) recently entered the AI data center race, so quarterly results were expected to be volatile until the business scales. The company has signed substantial leases for data centers, but investors have to be patient with leases not  starting until end of this year. My  investment thesis  is more Bullis...

  Cipher Mining has secured major AI data center leasing deals with AWS and Fluidstack, totaling billions in long-term contracted revenues. The company is not providing AI compute services, instead acting as a power shell lessor, avoiding GPU risk but limiting upside to real estate-like returns. Near-term revenue remains dominated by bitcoin mining; AI data center revenues begin in late 2026, with consensus projecting $1B in 2027 sales. The stock trades at nearly 7x 2027 sales, faces substantial debt, and lacks near-term catalysts, making the stock a Neutral given long lead times for capacity expansion. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Cipher Mining Inc. ( CIFR ) recently entered the AI data center race with major deals with hyperscaler customers. The bitcoin miner is part of a group of companies transitioning from running data centers for crypto mining  to ...

Update - Nov. 18, 2025 Cloudflare could roundtrip all the way back down to $120. The stock still trades at 26x '26 sales targets despite causing this major outage today.  -Update: Cloudflare said it was starting to see some services recover, but “customers may continue to observe higher-than-normal error rates as we continue remediation efforts.” -Cloudflare (NET) shares slid 3.9% in premarket trading on Tuesday as a major outage at the internet security company has disrupted major apps, including X, ChatGPT and others. “Cloudflare is aware of, and investigating an issue which impacts multiple customers: Widespread 500 errors, Cloudflare Dashboard and API also failing,” the company said in a post on its systems status page. “We are working to understand the full impact and mitigate this problem. More updates to follow shortly.” Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Ori...

Update - Sept. 19, 2025 As predicted, CoreWeave has started recovering after the irrational sell off heading into the lock-up expiration. The stock is back to $125 now and Loop Capital just initiated the stock with a $165 price target based only on a 10x '27 EBITDA target of $12.8 billion. The firm forecasts '27 revenues of $17.9 billion.  The stock is probably an easy ride back to prior highs with booming AI data center demand.  Update - Aug. 27, 2025 CoreWeave has seen the momentum change with the Cantor buy rating and $116 price target. The lock-up expiration flush should be over.  Original article posted on Aug. 15 CoreWeave, Inc.'s stock collapse post-acquisition and early lock-up creates a compelling buying opportunity below $100, flipping the original thesis. The AI Cloud company reported strong Q2 results with 210% revenue growth, $1B+ quarterly sales, and a record of $30.1B backlog, showing massive demand and scalability. Despite heavy capex and $11B of debt, Cor...

Update - Sept. 4, 2025 C3.ai still hasn't explained the reason for so much sales to just disappear during FQ1 while the FQ2 guidance for $72-$80M is only a small bounce back. The enterprise AI software company did announce a promising new CEO is a sign this could be the bottom.  -FQ1 Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.37 misses by $0.16. -Revenue of $70.26M (-19.4% Y/Y) Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Original article posted on July 1 C3.ai is experiencing strong overall growth, especially in professional services, but subscription revenue growth remains muted and needs improvement for stronger investor confidence. The company’s partnership with Microsoft Azure and a major U.S. Air Force contract expansion highlight significant future growth catalysts and validation of its AI solutions. Despite persistent operating losses, C3.ai’s robust $743 million cash balance and low EV/Sal...

Update - June 30, 2025 Meta  quickly rallied to a new high today at $748 on the Superintelligent Labs and quickly eversed in a potential sign of a top. In a bid to lead the next wave of AI innovation, Meta ( NASDAQ: META ) is creating a “superintelligence” division dedicated to developing cutting-edge artificial intelligence technologies. Meta Superintelligent Labs will be led by Alexandr Wang, the former CEO of Scale who Meta ( NASDAQ: META ) lured away after making a $14.3B investment for a 49% stake in the company. Along with Wang, a select group of Scale employees and researchers from OpenAI, Anthropic and Google ( GOOG ) have also joined the Meta superintelligence team. In a letter to employees viewed by Bloomberg, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said, “as the pace of AI progress accelerates, developing superintelligence is coming into sight. I believe this will be the beginning of a new era for humanity, and I am fully committed to doing what it takes for Meta to lead the way.” ...

  CoreWeave rebounded sharply post-IPO, alleviating initial fears about debt and customer concentration with strong Q1 results and surging AI demand. The AI hyperscaler has robust adjusted EBITDA supporting the company’s ability to handle large debt loads, but capital needs remain high. A looming lock-up expiration, limited public float, and significant stock options/warrants could trigger heavy selling pressure in late September. At nearly $190, I’m tepidly bullish but cautious given the stretched valuation, rising debt, and potential dilution from upcoming share unlocks. CoreWeave, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: CRWV ) had a disappointing IPO, but the stock action over the last month has made up for the bad start. The stock of the AI hyperscaler is now up 365% from the IPO price. My investment thesis is tepidly Bullish  with CoreWeave trading up at nearly $184, knowing the lock-up expiration will likely take the stock down. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No...

  Broadcom's AI business is growing rapidly but remains a small portion of its $1.2T valuation, making the stock richly priced for its current AI exposure. AI revenues are forecast to reach $5.1B in FQ3, with custom AI accelerators and networking driving growth, but overall sales growth is less impressive. Despite a $10B buyback and strong margins, future sales growth is projected below 20%, and AI's lower margins limit further profitability leverage. The stock already trades at 14x FY27 sales targets, boosted by AI growing at a 60% clip, though Broadcom appears headed higher in the short term. Broadcom Inc.  ( NASDAQ: AVGO ) ( NEOE: AVGO:CA ) is a massive technology infrastructure company, shifting the focus into AI infrastructure. The company makes promising custom AI chips for industry leaders, but the market is already pricing in a  lot of AI excitement. My investment thesis is Neutral on the stock, with the breakout prior to earnings likely dictating the stock price ...

Update - May 28, 2025 C3.ai reported a FQ4 beat, but subscription revenues only grew 9% with all of the growth coming from prioritized professional services.  -Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.16 beats by $0.04. -Revenue of $108.72M (+25.5% Y/Y) beats by $1.02M. FY26 guidance is a very wide range with the suggestion the low end is due to geopolitical risks, though those risks have disappeared of late. The guidance suggests revenues of $464 million versus consensus estimates around $466 million for growth of 20%.  Original article posted on May 21 C3.ai, Inc. trades back at yearly lows despite reporting strong growth in the last year. The enterprise AI software company has a ramping set of pilot deals and a surge in potential new agreements due to an AI partnership with Microsoft Azure. Despite current losses, C3.ai maintains a robust cash position and is prioritizing customer acquisition over immediate profitability to capture the generative AI opportunity. AI stock is cheap, trading at...

  Nvidia Corporation faces pressure due to DeepSeek's claims of cheaper AI model training, but efficient GPU usage could boost overall AI spending. DeepSeek's R1 model claims to outperform OpenAI at a fraction of the cost, though its actual GPU usage is under scrutiny. Nvidia's stock drop presents a buying opportunity, with AI demand likely to grow despite potential margin risks. The main stock risk is lower margins, but efficient AI models are unlikely to diminish Nvidia's long-term AI GPU growth story. Nvidia Corporation  ( NASDAQ: NVDA ) is getting crushed on news of a Chinese AI company figuring out how to reduce GPU costs to train AI models. The AI chip company traded at a rich valuation, and less demand for GPUs  could crush the sales growth and reduce the value of the stock. My  investment thesis  remains Bullish on the stock on any further dips, as more efficient GPU usage could only ramp up AI spending. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Dis...

Update - Jan. 9, 2025 SoundHound AI still has plenty of downside. The stock valuation can't be justified above $4.  Original article posted on Nov. 13 SoundHound AI's reported growth is misleading; pro forma revenues actually declined 10% in Q3, revealing underlying business weaknesses. The Amelia acquisition contributed far more to revenue targets than originally suggested. Despite beating EPS estimates, SoundHound AI's adjusted EBITDA loss doubled, and the share count surged, inflating the market cap to nearly $3 billion. The stock's extreme valuation at 18x, 2025 sales targets is unjustified; it should revert to the $2-$4 range without clearer business performance. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » The original view on the Amelia deal was concerning, but  SoundHound AI  ( NASDAQ: SOUN ) rallied into earnings due to the strong reported growth rates. The...

  Arm Holdings' stock remains overvalued due to AI hype, despite only 5% YoY sales growth and limited AI chip market participation. The company's revenue growth is constrained by volatile license revenues and slow adoption of the newer Armv9 architecture, limiting significant royalty rate increases. Arm's massive margins and strong profits are overshadowed by a small revenue base and the need for substantial growth to justify current valuations. The stock trades at over 63x FY26 EPS targets, with a fair value below $100. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » ARM Holdings plc  ( NASDAQ: ARM ) continues to report mixed results in the AI chip race, while the company doesn't really participate as viewed by the market. The company just recorded a quarter where sales hardly grew YoY despite a big beat. My  investment thesis  remains ultra-Bearish on the stock,...

Updated - Nov. 15, 2024 Despite leadership in AI and robotaxis in China, Baidu trades right back down to historical support around $80. The stock has now dipped $30 following the volatile move on hope for the Chinese government to fully stimulate the economy.  Update - Aug. 22, 2024 Baidu didn't report anything impressive from robotaxis or AI yet during Q2. The big robotaxi ramp up in Wuhan hasn't started yet. The stock did hold the key $80 support level.  Q2 Non-GAAP EPADS of $2.89 beats by $0.29. Revenue of $4.67B (flat Y/Y) misses by $70M. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.26 billion and adjusted EBITDA margin was 27%.  Adjusted EBITDA for Baidu Core was $1.19 billion and adjusted EBITDA margin for Baidu Core was 32%. Free cash flow was $862 million, and free cash flow excluding iQIYI was $810 million. Original article posted on Aug. 18 Baidu trades at levels first seen in 2011 despite strong growth catalysts. The Chinese search leader will report Q2 earnings on August 22, reveal...