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IB Net Payout Yields Model

NBER declares Recession started December 2007

According to this Reuters report, NBER has declared the recession is already 12 months old and within stricking distance of the longest post Great Depression recession on record. This isn't that surprising to anybody following the market. Though the surprising part is that the recession officially started in December of last year even though we had good, positive GDP growth in the first half of 2008. Alot on Wall Stree feared that the recession didn't start until the summer and would need as much as 18 more months to run its course. Now we likely are looking closer to the end then the beginning. Whats interesting though is that NBER has a history of calling recessions when they are just about to end. The last recession in 2001 was called exactly the month that they later declared as the end. Does their declaration put and end to the rampant speculation of the recession and force people to finally start thinking about the end? History definitely shows that the call a recession ...