Posts

Showing posts with the label Rumble

IB Net Payout Yields Model

Rumble: Don't Chase TikTok Hype

Image
Update - Mar. 27, 2024 Rumble reported another in Q4'23. All of the new content isn't turning into usage growth. The stock likely falls back to $5. -GAAP EPS of -$0.14 beats by $0.08. - Rev. of $20.4M (+2.2% YoY) misses by $7.7M. -Avg. Minutes Watched Per Month were 10.5B, compared to 10.7B in Q3'23. Original article posted on March 13  Rumble Inc. surged after announcing a potential partnership with ByteDance for a cloud service, but the likelihood of such a partnership is low. The focus should be on Rumble's Q4 2023 results and its partnership with Barstool Sports, rather than the TikTok deal. Rumble has the potential for significant growth in 2024, especially with a focus on political content and the 2024 Presidential election. Rumble Inc.  ( NASDAQ: RUM ) has been on a tear since announcing a partnership with Barstool Sports back in January. The video platform has longed announced big content partnerships, but the company has paid aggressively to acquire talent, ...

Rumble: Scrapping Along The Bottom

Image
Update - Jan. 22, 2024 The BarStool Sports deal is very promising, especially considering the push to promote Rumble. The company didn't provide any financial details on the partnership and a large guaranteed payment could actually be a negative.  The stock remains interesting below $5.  Update - Jan. 11, 2024 Rumble continues to collapse this week likely due to Twitter/X announcing new shows only on X.  The stock is down to new lows below $4.  Original article posted on Dec. 5, 2023 Rumble Inc. user metrics remain tepid, leading to new lows for the online video sharing service. The company's massive spending on content creators has not resulted in significantly higher usage or revenues. Rumble is forecasting a path to break even in 2025, but the stock remains risky due to high cash burn and the inability to monetize users effectively. After  another quarter  of tepid user metrics,  Rumble Inc.  ( NASDAQ: RUM ) has fallen ...

Rumble: Speculative Play (Rating Upgrade)

Image
Update - Oct. 19, 2023 The online video streaming chart has shown a noticeable improvement after dipping below $5. Rumble still needs to prove the company can leverage the higher spending to more viewers. As example, Russell Brand only has 1.72 million followers now despite pushing his Twitter follower base to Rumble.  Update - Sept. 28, 2023 Rumble has made a big bounce off the lows below $5. The stock got beaten down too far on irrational fears.    Original article posted on Sept. 26 Rumble Inc. stock has plummeted, making it an appealing buy for investors looking for an entry point. The platform's focus on free speech has not resulted in significant organic growth, with content creators only using Rumble as a last resort or when well compensated. The stock offers a better value at 6x '24 sales, which is cheap for the strong growth rates. Out Fox The Street members get exclusive access to our real-world portfolios. See all of our investments  here »   As ...

Rumble: Impressive Quarter, Lots Of Questions Remain

Image
  Rumble Inc. smashed Q4 revenue numbers, hitting nearly $20 million for the first time. The company guided to weaker Q1 revenues while costs are soaring. Rumble Inc. stock hasn't held initial gains due to trading at ~25x '23 sales targets. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Rumble Inc.  ( NASDAQ: RUM ) offers a lot of promises to take on YouTube, owned by  Alphabet Inc.  ( GOOG ,  GOOGL ), in the online video market. The company continues to announce a ton of new content  partners while working on innovative monetization products, but the ramp to material revenues and profits will be lengthy. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on Rumble Inc. stock due to valuation, but the company did end 2022 on an impressive note. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details....

Rumble: Hopefully You Sold The Rally (Rating Downgrade)

Image
Updated - Mar. 31, 2023 Rumble didn't hold the initial massive after-hours rally as the big Q4'22 beat won't repeat in Q1'23. The CFO guided to sequentially lower revenue in the just ending March quarter. The stock valuation is very rich at $3 billion with the quarterly revenues below $20 million.  Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.00. Revenue of $19.96M (+578.9% Y/Y). Average global Monthly Active Users increased 142% to 80 million, a company record, compared to 33 million in the fourth quarter of 2021. Of the 80 million, 65 million were based  in the U.S. and Canada, compared to 21 million in the U.S. and Canada during the fourth quarter of 2021. The stock not breaking $10 appears very bearish.  Original article posted on Feb. 13   Rumble Inc. recently rallied above $10 on hype surrounding new content deals and a market rebound. The Power Slap content partnership is promising, but the engagement is still relatively low. Rumble stock should trade down to at least $5, where the...

Rumble: Wait For $5

Image
Update - Dec. 23 Rumble closed at a new low below $7. The stock has now crashed below $6.50 and looks set to make a run down to $5. Investors need to stay on the sidelines until some clarification exists on the lows.  Update - Dec. 6 Rumble fell to a low of $7.50 yesterday before the big bounce today. The stock has possibly set up a higher low, but the view remains to not chase at these valuations.  Original article was published on Nov. 20 Rumble reported a strong revenue jump in Q3'22, but the revenue base is still only $11 million. The 'neutral' video platform has impressive plans with new monetization products to reward content creators over time. The stock valuation doesn't match the current revenue base with a market cap of $3.7 billion based on the 375 million diluted shares providing limited upside to shareholders. The $5 price target remains in place as the likely path for the stock. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing com...

Rumble: Not Ready For Prime Time Yet

Image
  Rumble continues to fall as investors grasp with post SPAC valuation concerns. The video-sharing platform is set to release Q3 results on November 14. The stock has more appeal around $5 after the market fully grasp quarterly revenues are only in the $5 to $6 million range. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Rumble  ( NASDAQ: RUM ) recently closed the SPAC deal with CF Acquisition Corp. VI to go public. The video-sharing platform has a lot of promise to open up the online video market, but the company still faces tons of  growing pains. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on the stock until after company publicly releases quarterly results and shareholders face the limited sales levels. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - Nov. 15 Rumble reported decen...

Rumble: Wait For Post SPAC Discount

Image