Out Fox The $treet

Update - July 25, 2025 Nextdoor surged following the launch of the NEXT platform and switch of the ticker to "NXDR", but the stock has sold off the last 4 days providing an ideal entry point.  Original article posted on June 4 Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. trades near cash value, presenting a compelling risk/reward as it prepares to launch its transformative NEXT platform. Management paused monetization and user growth to focus on NEXT, temporarily depressing revenue but setting up for a major turnaround. NEXT aims to deliver hyper-local content, professional news, and AI-driven recommendations, addressing past engagement and monetization challenges. The stock trades at less than 1x EV/S targets due to a strong cash position, limiting downside risk while the upcoming platform relaunch offers significant upside potential. Just as  Nextdoor Holdings, Inc.  ( KIND ) is set to launch a new user interface, the stock trades at all-time lows. Despite a promising turnaround in place, t...

Update - June 30, 2025 Meta  quickly rallied to a new high today at $748 on the Superintelligent Labs and quickly eversed in a potential sign of a top. In a bid to lead the next wave of AI innovation, Meta ( NASDAQ: META ) is creating a “superintelligence” division dedicated to developing cutting-edge artificial intelligence technologies. Meta Superintelligent Labs will be led by Alexandr Wang, the former CEO of Scale who Meta ( NASDAQ: META ) lured away after making a $14.3B investment for a 49% stake in the company. Along with Wang, a select group of Scale employees and researchers from OpenAI, Anthropic and Google ( GOOG ) have also joined the Meta superintelligence team. In a letter to employees viewed by Bloomberg, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said, “as the pace of AI progress accelerates, developing superintelligence is coming into sight. I believe this will be the beginning of a new era for humanity, and I am fully committed to doing what it takes for Meta to lead the way.” ...

Update - May 27, 2025 Trump Media is selling $1.5B in stock and issuing $1B in senior convertible notes to buy cryptocurrencies in an odd move, probably due to the social media failing to gain any traction. Investors have no reason to buy this stock for bitcoin, instead of just front running Trump.  -Trump Media and Technology Group ( NASDAQ: DJT )  plans to raise  $2.5B in stock and senior secured notes in a private placement with ~50 institutional investors in which to create the largest Bitcoin treasury of a public company. -“We view Bitcoin as  an apex instrument of financial freedom, and now Trump Media will hold cryptocurrency as a crucial part of our assets…and help defend our company against harassment and discrimination by financial institutions,” said Trump Media CEO Devin Nunes. Original Article posted on January 29 President Trump has appeared to focus on meme coins over improving Trump Media, leading to a lack of promotion for Truth Social. Meme coins TR...

Update - March 10, 2025 Reddit ended down 20% and over 50% from the highs.  The stock needs to close the gap to $80, before Reddit gets appealing.  Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Original article posted on Feb. 3 Reddit's current growth rate is unsustainable with U.S. DAU growth decelerating and future growth likely to be challenging, similar to other social media stocks. The stock trades at over 20x forward sales, a multiple other social media stocks were unable to sustain. Investors should be cautious; while Reddit may report strong Q4 results, sustaining growth to justify its current stock price is uncertain. The stock market has an established history of smacking down social media stocks when the major growth phase ends.  Reddit, Inc.  ( NYSE: RDDT ) will ultimately face this outcome when the current spectacular growth phase normalizes. My...

Update - Feb. 28, 2025 Nextdoor reported another strong quarter.  Q4 Revenue of $65.23M (+17.4% Y/Y)  beats by $2.11M . Adjusted EBITDA was $3.0 million, compared to a $14.0 million loss in the year-ago period, reflecting 30 percentage points of year-over-year margin improvement. The social media company guided to weak Q1 results due to going full speed ahead with the NEXT UI updates. This is great news for  investors, but the stock is down some 30% due to the markets short-term focus.  The stock trades at near cash value of $427 million.  Originally posted on Nov. 8 Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Nextdoor has achieved a significant turnaround under the return of founding CEO Nirav Tolia, with 17% revenue growth and record WAUs. The company nearly eliminated losses, reporting a Q3 adjusted EBITDA loss of just $1 million, and expects to be cas...

Update - Jan. 29, 2025 Meta with another big quarter, Q1 guidance was wonky though. Another big beat in the March quarter and Meta beats the current consensus estimates. -Q4 GAAP EPS of $8.02 beats by $1.26. -Revenue of $48.39B (+20.6% Y/Y) beats by $1.4B. CFO Outlook Commentary: We expect first quarter 2025 total revenue to be in the range of $39.5-41.8 billion vs. consensus of $41.62B. This reflects 8-15% year-over-year growth, or 11-18% growth on a constant currency basis as our guidance assumes foreign currency is an approximately 3% headwind to year-over-year total revenue growth, based on current exchange rates. Original article posted on Jan. 22 Meta Platforms, Inc.'s stock remains attractive due to AI and Metaverse opportunities, even after the stock's massive run in the last couple of years. The company has a massive catalyst in smart glasses with an aim to replace smartphones in the future, warranting Reality Labs' $17+ billion annual loss. The stock could reach $...

  Update - Jan. 16, 2025 Biden's Admin. actions while leaving office will likely be ignored. Any Snap dip is a buying opportunity.  -The Federal Trade Commission has referred a complaint against Snap Inc. (NYSE:SNAP) to the Department of Justice, according to a public statement made by the U.S. government agency Thursday. -The complaint against the Snapchat parent is connected to the deployment of "My AI" chatbot on the company's platform, which the agency alleges poses risk to young users. -The agency said that during its additional investigations on Snap for potential violations of the FTC act, it found reason to believe the company "is violating or is about to violate the law." It added that a proceeding is in the public interest, and as per procedures outlined in the FTC act, it referred the complaint to the Justice Department. Original article posed on Dec. 8 Snap trades near recent lows despite record revenues and a booming subscription business. The c...

Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Update - Nov. 8, 2024 Pinterest reported pretty solid Q3'24 numbers. The dip back to the lows around $30 makes no sense. The market is disappointed in guidance, but Pinterest still expects at least 15% growth.  -Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.40 beats by $0.06. -Revenue of $898.37M (+17.7% Y/Y) beats by $1.93M. Outlook: For Q4 2024, we expect revenue to be in the range of $1,125 million to $1,145 million vs. consensus of $1.14B, representing 15-17% growth year over year. Original article posted on Nov. 5 Pinterest is set to report Q3'24 results on November 7, with consensus estimates reflecting strong growth. Despite market disappointment with original Q3 guidance, the business focus on social commerce and AI tools is driving higher engagement and ad budget gains from major brands. PINS stock is undervalued, trading at 18x 2025 EPS targets,...

Update - Oct. 29 Snap with another strong quarter. At $10, the stock trades like the social messaging play has no growth.  Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.08  beats by $0.03 . Revenue of $1.37B (+15.1% Y/Y)   beats by $10M . Daily Active Users increased 9% year-over-year to 443 million Total time spent watching content increased 25% year-over-year. Update - Sept. 19 Snap making a run after a solid Partner Event with a focus on AI and A/R glasses. The stock could quickly close the gap to $13.  Originally posted on Sept. 8 Snap has fallen to multi-year lows despite strong sales growth and a promising subscription service, making it an undervalued investment below $9. The social messaging company reported 850 million MAUs and 432 million DAUs, with Snapchat+ boosting subscriptions to 11 million. The market is overly focused on volatile advertising revenue, ignoring Snap's potential $700 million in recurring subscription fees by the end of 2024. SNAP stock trades at only 3x forwar...

Updated - Sept. 25  Oppenheimer sees nearly 50% upside on the $31 stock.  Oppenheimer initiated coverage of Pinterest ( NYSE: PINS ) with an "Outperform" rating on Tuesday. They think the company's platform is lending itself well to direct response advertising and believe investments in engagement and monetization will drive upside to long-term investor estimates, helped by its more  than 500 million monthly users. The research firm noted that while PINS's DAU base is the smallest among social media companies, they see upside to engagement. They also view the company's valuation as attractive at 12x EBITDA. Pinterest has a PT of $45, implying an upside of 48%.  Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Originally posted on Aug. 23 Pinterest produces consistent revenue growth, but the stock is struggling to gain traction. The social media company grew MAUs in...

  Nextdoor Holdings, Inc. is experiencing reinvigorated growth with the return of its founding CEO. The company should exit the year with a 10%+ sales growth rates, adding to investor interest in the local social platform. Nextdoor Holdings stock trades below 2x EV/S targets due to a strong cash balance of $500 million. After a tough couple of years following the Covid boom,  Nextdoor Holdings, Inc.  ( NYSE: KIND ) appears back in growth mode. The local social media player has the founding CEO back in charge and signs of reinvigorated growth are  starting to pop up. My  investment thesis  remains ultra-Bullish on the stock, trading at just $2 despite a strong  balance sheet . Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long KIND. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Update - Apr. 17, 2024 Congress spends a lot of time talking about a TikTok ban, but it just seems like talk. Snap is very intriguing here at $10 based on Snapchat+ with an outlier potential for the ban.  -Snapchat surged during Wednesday trading following news that the proposed bill forcing TikTok to divest from ByteDance or face a U.S. ban might get fast tracked. -House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) plans to include the TikTok bill in a fast-track package that includes aid for Ukraine and Israel, Bloomberg reported Wednesday. Original article posted on March 27 Snap Inc.'s Q1 '24 guidance for DAUs and revenue fell slightly below consensus, but disappointed investors missed the progress on returning towards 15% growth. Snapchat+ is growing towards the 14 million target for the end of 2024 with an updated number for the end of Q1 providing a catalyst. The stock only trades at 4x EV/S targets, a discount to social media peers. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Member...