Out Fox The $treet

Update - Dec. 19, 2023 C3.ai appears set for another breakout. The stock gets expensive really quick.    Original article posted on Dec. 7 C3.ai, Inc. announces quarterly results that miss consensus estimates, marking three consecutive quarters without growth. The enterprise AI software company is focused on building its pipeline and increasing customer engagements, but the market remains skeptical due to the shift in its business model. C3.ai stock is inching towards the buy range at 8x EV/S targets. After the close,   C3.ai, Inc.  ( NYSE: AI ) announced  quarterly results  that missed consensus estimates. The AI enterprise software company hasn't reported growth in the last 3 quarters after shifting the business model towards consumption. My  investment thesis  is more Neutral on the stock with the additional dip in after-hours trading and the building momentum in the pipeline. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No positi...

Update - Dec. 15, 2023 MofettNathanson has been wrong about Roku all year with the $64 price target heading into this downgrade. The market actually following this call by selling off the stock is mind numbing.  -Roku's (NASDAQ:ROKU) stock fell about 2% premarket on Friday after MoffettNathanson downgraded the shares to Sell from Neutral. -The firm cut the rating but raised its price target to $66 from $64 using its imputed EBITDA valuation approach with an 18% theoretical EBITDA margin on its 2025E revenues and a 10.0x EV/EBITDA multiple, as per the analysts. Update - Nov. 3, 2023  Roku reported an impressive quarter, but the most important aspect was guidance for Q4.  Forecast $955 million in Q4 net revenue, better than the consensus $951.3 million Adj. EBITDA $10 million The stock has surged due to the drop from nearly being related to fears Roku would cut guidance due to the Hollywood strikes pressure on ad revenues.  Original article posted on Oct. 24  Roku...

Despite a strong quarter, Celsius Holdings' stock has slumped due in part to a recent stock split, providing a buying opportunity. Demand for Celsius energy drinks remains strong, with potential for international growth to help the company maintain strong growth rates, though rates will decelerate. The stock is priced at a similar valuation multiple to a peer with much lower growth rates. Despite another blockbuster quarter,  Celsius Holdings  ( NASDAQ: CELH ) has slumped from substantially higher levels back in September. The recent stock split has apparently provided fuel for stock sales. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on the  energy drink company on this dip. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Update - Dec. 12, 2023 Snapchat+ continues lining up the subs sending Snap to yearly highs.  -Snap ( NYSE: SNAP ) on Tuesday said its paid Snapchat+ subscription service now had more than 7M subscribers, and that it was rolling out new artificial intelligence (AI) based features for users. -The company had targeted 10M subscribers for the service when  it had launched Snapchat+ in July last year. It is now more than halfway to that mark in less than 18 months. Snap  in September had said the service had  surpassed  5M users. Update - Oct. 31, 2023 Pinterest reported a great quarter after the close yesterday. The social imaging site appeared to suggest any advertising pause from the Gaza conflict had already restarted. Snap should be above $10 already.  Update - Oct. 25, 2023 Snap originally soared on a surprise profit and a return to sales growth during Q3. The social media stock is the cheaper in the sector and still trades near multi-year l...

Update - Dec. 8, 2023 Carnival is already up over 30% since the last bullish call in late September and over 50% above the late October lows. The cruise lines are set to power ahead with massive earnings in 2024 and debt repayment will only further boost profits. CCL has at least a $2 to $3 EPS in out years.  Original article posted on Sept. 27  Carnival Corporation & plc is expected to report a strong quarter with a forecasted large profit after years of massive losses. Carnival is focused on reducing its debt, with plans to repay $8 billion in the next 3 years based on strong cash flows. The stock is cheap at 10x EV/EBITDA targets and with expectations for EPS to regain $2+ in the next few years. Out Fox The Street members get exclusive access to our real-world portfolios. See all of our investments  here »   The cruise ship stocks have fallen the last couple of months, but  Carnival Corporation & plc  ( NYSE: CCL ) is set to report a blockbuster ...

  Yext reported disappointing Q3 results with only 2% growth despite hype around AI. YEXT's focus on profits over growth has hurt stock performance. The stock is now a call option on management's ability to return the business to growth with Yext trading at only 1x EV/S targets. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Yext  ( NYSE: YEXT ) reported a disappointing FQ3 as the company failed to make any progress towards returning to solid growth. The AI search company has prioritized profits over growth in the last year to the demise  of the stock. My  investment thesis  is still Bullish on the stock at the current ultra-cheap valuation, but Yext isn't likely to rally until the company prioritizes and produces growth. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long YEXT. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Update - Nov. 20  C3.ai still doesn't appear to be riding the AI wave. Job cuts are an opportunity to improve efficiency, but this company should have the growth to make job cuts unnecessary.  C3.ai ( NYSE: AI ) shares erased earlier gains and  fell nearly 6%  on Monday amid a report that the enterprise software company is cutting jobs. The job cuts, which happened across multiple departments, happened due in part to employee performance and cost savings,  Bloomberg  reported . Original article posted on Sept. 7   C3.ai, Inc. stock is falling after the company announced plans to invest more in branding their AI software, prolonging ongoing losses. The company has a large cash balance and positive operating cash flows, but the market is unlikely to reward investments without corresponding revenue growth. The stock is expensive with no appeal until the EV/FY24 sales multiple dips closer to 5x due to the limited growth. The enterprise artificial intellige...

  SoFi Technologies continues to report strong growth but trades at a low valuation, disconnected from its results. The company hiked adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2023 by 16%, yet SoFi now trades lower. The stock trades at only 11x '24 adjusted EBITDA targets, which are equivalent to adjusted profits. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Despite persistently strong growth,  SoFi Technologies  ( NASDAQ: SOFI ) still trades closer to the lows after going public via a SPAC at $10. The digital bank continues to report impressive growth disconnected from the stock movement where every quarterly beat is  sold off. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on the secular growth story trading at a massive discount. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Update - Nov. 15 Good sign Luminar has finally hit bottom. The stock has rallied over 13% after the reversal on Nov. 14.  Original article posted on Nov. 10 Luminar Technologies, Inc. faces production start delays at a key partner that limited revenue ramp in 2023. The Lidar company was hit by multiple project delays in the last quarter, contributing to a Q3 2023 miss, though revenues should surge in Q4. The stock trades at a massive discount to the order book with a market cap of only $1.2 billion, making Luminar stock a speculative buy. Out Fox The Street members get exclusive access to our real-world portfolios. See all of our investments  here »   The Lidar sector faces a volatile ramp path due to the implementation of new technologies into auto production requiring years of testing and unpredictable new vehicle launches.  Luminar Technologies, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: LAZR ) is the latest company to get snarled in production start delays of a major auto manufacturer...

  Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.'s Q3 results and guidance initially disappointed the market, but the stock has rallied to multi-month highs. The launch of AI chips could drive the stock to all-time highs, with projected AI revenue exceeding $2 billion in 2024 alone. The stock trades at a base case of only 20x '25 EPS targets, but AI GPU chip sales could provide a substantial boost to conservative targets. After the market initially didn’t like the  Q3 results  and  guidance  from  Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: AMD ), the stock has suddenly rallied to multi-month highs. The launch of AI chips could send the stock  to all-time highs similar to peer stocks. My  investment thesis  remains ultra bullish on AMD, with investors best to focus on future numbers, not short-term hiccups around product launches. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more detai...

  Novavax, Inc. reported Q3 2023 numbers above consensus estimates based almost solely on grant revenue. The company cut guidance for 2023 revenues and even pushed out a large portion of those revenues to Q1 2024 due to weak COVID vaccine demand. The stock continues to decline as the company remains disconnected from the market demand for COVID vaccines. Novavax, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: NVAX ) continues to trend lower as the biotech still sounds somewhat disjointed from the market demand for COVID vaccines. Ironically, the company announced another cost reduction plan, a sure sign of the actual direction of vaccine demand  is much lower. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on NVAX stock, even at the multi-year lows near $6. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long UA. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.