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Showing posts from June, 2023

IB Net Payout Yields Model

Carnival Stock: All Eyes On Cash Flows

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Update - June 27, 2023 The market originally sold off the cruise lines due to Carnival mentioning higher costs, yet the cruise line upped Adjusted EBITDA targets for the year. The market is acting a lot more rational here with Carnival up over 8%.  -Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.31 beats by $0.02. -Revenue of $4.9B (+104.2% Y/Y) beats by $130M. -The company saw continued acceleration of demand, with total bookings made during the quarter reaching a new all-time high for all future sailings. Booking volumes for the second quarter exceeded the first quarter's booking volumes, which was the previous record high. -Q3 Outlook: Adjusted EBITDA of $2.05 billion to $2.15 billion, a significant improvement compared to the second quarter of 2023 and adjusted net income of $0.95 billion to $1.05 billion; Occupancy of 107% or higher. -FY2023 Outlook: Adjusted EBITDA of $4.10 billion to $4.25 billion, above March guidance's range and with a midpoint increase of $175 million Original article posted

C3.ai: Out Of Steam (Rating Downgrade)

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This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Update - June 23, 2023 C3.ai has fallen back to earth after the Investor Day meeting. The Deutsche Bank analyst call on the meeting suggests the company still isn't ready to produce actual numbers from the generative AI demand.  C3.ai ( NYSE: AI ) shares  fell more than 8%  on Friday after investment firm Deutsche Bank reiterated its sell rating on the enterprise software company after it held its investor meeting. Analyst Brad Zelnick said the event "left a lot to be desired" as there were  no details on financials, "limited" updates on the company's operations and investors did not really attend the event, despite it being positioned as for them. "While we appreciate the vast opportunity presented by AI, the event did nothing to ease our skepticism on the true differentiation of the company's platform, its traction with custome

PayPal: Underappreciated Growth

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PayPal has seen its stock fall below pre-Covid levels despite the company continuing to generate solid growth rates. The market doesn't appreciate the level of innovation taking place at the digital payment company with a massive TAM. PYPL stock trades at a massive discount at only 12x forward EPS estimates due to oddly low investor confidence. The market can be a perplexing place due to valuations being highly subjective and driven mainly by confounding financial metrics. A prime example of this issue is the depressed value of  PayPal Holdings  ( NASDAQ: PYPL ) despite knowledge of tough  Covid era comps while some tech giants have limited growth and off the charts investor confidence. My  investment thesis  is ultra Bullish on the stock of the digital payments company trading below pre-Covid levels. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Joby Aviation: Strategic Cash Raise

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Update - June 15, 2023 Joby has nearly doubled now since a strategic capital raise in early May. The stock market has become more  bullish  on former SPACs, but the capital raise helped  provide  more confidence in the  company  making it to eVTOL production. Even at $8 now, Joby is likely cheap considering the SPAC deal was completed years ago at $10.  Original article posted on May 5.  Joby Aviation completed a stock offering to raise another $180 million, with the stock trading at $4. The eVTOL manufacturer recently expanded a deal with the DoD, which includes the delivery of 2 aircraft to the U.S. Air Force in early 2024. Joby Aviation stock is cheap, trading at all-time lows, while the company remains on target for aircraft certification and production launch in the next year. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   As  Joby Aviation, Inc.  ( NYSE: JOBY ) quickly moves towards launching production of

Archer Aviation: Promising Developments

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  Update - June 12, 2023 Archer is finally in the midst of a breakout on the positive FAA news.  -The acting administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration, Billy Nolen, is in talks to join Archer Aviation (NYSE:ACHR), per a report from Reuters. -Citing sources familiar with the situation, the report indicates Nolen will depart his current position atop the FAA in the next few weeks and will then look to transition to a role at Archer (ACHR). Archer’s rival Joby Aviation (JOBY) previously appointed former FAA chief Michael Huerta to a position on its board in March. Original article posted on Jan. 19 This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Archer Aviation Inc. jumped to $3 on the excitement of small insider purchases. The eVTOL manufacturer recently announced several major developments towards FAA certification and production of the Midnight aircraft. Archer Aviation stock is interesting, with a $70

ChargePoint: Still Priced For Perfection

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Update - June 9, 2023 Tesla is now working with both Ford and General Motors on charging stations. ChargePoint appears in a bad spot now with the stock headed for new lows.  -General Motors (NYSE:GM) announced a collaboration with Tesla to integrate the North American Charging Standard connector design into its electric vehicles beginning in 2025. -The collaboration between the legacy Detroit auto powerhouse and Austin electric vehicle giant will expand access to charging for General Motors (GM) EV drivers at 12K Tesla Superchargers. The agreement is said to complement GM's ongoing investments in charging, as well as reinforce the focus on expanding charging access across home, workplace, and public spaces. The charging deal builds on the more than 134K chargers available to GM EV drivers today through the company's Ultium Charge 360 initiative and mobile apps. Original article posted on May 31 ChargePoint Holdings, Inc. is set to report FQ1 2024 earnings on Thursday June 1 pos

Stitch Fix: Priced For Disaster

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  Stitch Fix, Inc. reported mixed FQ3 numbers, though the company did beat expectations. The online personalized shopping service was cash flow positive despite the revenue dip. Stitch Fix stock is cheap, trading at only 0.1x EV/S targets, a big discount to department stores. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Stitch Fix, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: SFIX ) continues to struggle to turn around the business following covid pull-forwards while facing macro headwinds. The company already uses data science and AI to help personalized stylist selections for  customers, providing a quick path to implement any new AI technologies. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on the stock, which is trading as if the company is headed towards a disaster while Stitch Fix has solid financials. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long SFIX. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Yext: Ride The Profits Shift

This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Update - June 7, 2023 Yext is now turning the corner with some revenue growth. FQ2 at $102M would be a record level (finally) -Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.08 beats by $0.03. -Revenue of $99.45M (+0.7% Y/Y) beats by $0.9M. -Customer Count Increased 5% Year-over-Year to Over 2,970 -Cash and Cash Equivalents of $217 Million. -Q2 Outlook: Revenue is projected to be in the range of $101.5 to $102.5 million; Original article posted on March 8  Yext, Inc. reported a mixed quarter with higher profits, but the company has limited revenue growth now. The data knowledge company has shifted the business to profit growth, constraining revenue growth in the near term. YEXT stock is cheap at 2x EV/S targets, even after doubling off the '22 lows.  The excitement over generative AI chat sent  Yext, Inc.  ( NYSE: YEXT ) to recent yearly highs. The data knowledge company focused on Answ

Mobileye Global: Still Priced For Perfection

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This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Update - June 5, 2023 Intel dumping shares should cap the stock in MobilEye following the irrational double top at $46. -Mobileye Global (NASDAQ:MBLY) on Monday announced the commencement of a secondary stock offering of up to 35M of its class A shares by a unit of Intel (INTC). -The Intel (INTC) unit selling the shares in the offering is Intel Overseas Funding Corporation. Update May 25, 2023   The Wells Fargo analyst sounds really bullish, but the price target only offers 25% upside. The better bet is Luminar Tech. ( LAZR )  at these prices. -Mobileye (NASDAQ:MBLY) shares rose more than 4% in pre-market trading on Thursday as Wells Fargo started coverage on the autonomous driving semiconductor company with an overweight rating. -Analyst Aaron Rakers, who also put a per-share price target of $50 on Mobileye (MBLY), noted that the company is in the early stage of a

DocuSign: Sign Up Here

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DocuSign has fallen to near all-time lows as the growth rate slows following a few strong years with covid. The e-signature company continues to provide tepid guidance while constantly smashing estimates with the next test coming up for FQ1 on June 8. The stock is cheap at 21x FY25 EPS estimates that are likely conservative. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   As a covid beneficiary,  DocuSign  ( NASDAQ: DOCU ) growth is regularly diminished, yet the e-signature company continues to grow beyond the original surge. The company definitely faces a tough macro environment, but DocuSign continues to outperform while providing conservative guidance. My  investment thesis  remains Bullish on the document company due to the opportunity to expand the TAM into a smart agreement. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.