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Meta: Superintelligence Requiring A Bigger Scale (Rating Downgrade)

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Update - June 30, 2025 Meta  quickly rallied to a new high today at $748 on the Superintelligent Labs and quickly eversed in a potential sign of a top. In a bid to lead the next wave of AI innovation, Meta ( NASDAQ: META ) is creating a “superintelligence” division dedicated to developing cutting-edge artificial intelligence technologies. Meta Superintelligent Labs will be led by Alexandr Wang, the former CEO of Scale who Meta ( NASDAQ: META ) lured away after making a $14.3B investment for a 49% stake in the company. Along with Wang, a select group of Scale employees and researchers from OpenAI, Anthropic and Google ( GOOG ) have also joined the Meta superintelligence team. In a letter to employees viewed by Bloomberg, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said, “as the pace of AI progress accelerates, developing superintelligence is coming into sight. I believe this will be the beginning of a new era for humanity, and I am fully committed to doing what it takes for Meta to lead the way.” ...
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IB Net Payout Yields Model

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CoreWeave: Ride Higher Until Lock-Up Expiration

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  CoreWeave rebounded sharply post-IPO, alleviating initial fears about debt and customer concentration with strong Q1 results and surging AI demand. The AI hyperscaler has robust adjusted EBITDA supporting the company’s ability to handle large debt loads, but capital needs remain high. A looming lock-up expiration, limited public float, and significant stock options/warrants could trigger heavy selling pressure in late September. At nearly $190, I’m tepidly bullish but cautious given the stretched valuation, rising debt, and potential dilution from upcoming share unlocks. CoreWeave, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: CRWV ) had a disappointing IPO, but the stock action over the last month has made up for the bad start. The stock of the AI hyperscaler is now up 365% from the IPO price. My investment thesis is tepidly Bullish  with CoreWeave trading up at nearly $184, knowing the lock-up expiration will likely take the stock down. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No...
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Under Armour: Positioned For A Turnaround

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Update - June 20, 2025 UA appears set for a run with no real news today. The stock broke the downtrend today.  Original article posted on May 21  Under Armour's turnaround is challenged by tariffs and weak sales, but founding CEO Kevin Plank's return brings renewed focus on innovation and premium products. Product resets and SKU cuts have hurt sales, but new launches like the Uncrushable Hat and No Weigh Backpack show promise for higher-margin growth. The stock remains cheap at only 0.6x forward EV/S targets, while industry peers trade at least 3x the multiple of sales. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » The  Under Armour, Inc.  ( NYSE: UA ) ( NYSE: UAA ) turnaround continues to struggle with the dynamic retail market due to tariffs. The athletic apparel company has made a lot of progress on innovation since founder Kevin Plank  returned to the C...
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Ouster: Inflection Point

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Update - June 11, 2025 Ouster surged 27% today on news of their digital Lidar being approved by the DoD for the Blue UAS Framework. The company doesn't have any news on actual contracts, but Ouster is now set up for future drone contracts.  -Ouster (NASDAQ:OUST) shares jumped 21% premarket on Wednesday after its OS1 digital lidar was approved by the Department of Defense for use in unmanned aerial systems.-Following a review of components and cybersecurity testing, the Defense Innovation Unit approved and added the Ouster OS1 to the Blue UAS Framework. The Ouster OS1 becomes the first high-resolution 3D lidar sensor approved under the Blue UAS Framework. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Original article posted on May 9 Ouster, Inc. reported strong Q1 2025 results with a solid revenue beat, signaling a potential inflection point. The company recently announced seve...
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Broadcom: Watered-Down AI Play

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  Broadcom's AI business is growing rapidly but remains a small portion of its $1.2T valuation, making the stock richly priced for its current AI exposure. AI revenues are forecast to reach $5.1B in FQ3, with custom AI accelerators and networking driving growth, but overall sales growth is less impressive. Despite a $10B buyback and strong margins, future sales growth is projected below 20%, and AI's lower margins limit further profitability leverage. The stock already trades at 14x FY27 sales targets, boosted by AI growing at a 60% clip, though Broadcom appears headed higher in the short term. Broadcom Inc.  ( NASDAQ: AVGO ) ( NEOE: AVGO:CA ) is a massive technology infrastructure company, shifting the focus into AI infrastructure. The company makes promising custom AI chips for industry leaders, but the market is already pricing in a  lot of AI excitement. My investment thesis is Neutral on the stock, with the breakout prior to earnings likely dictating the stock price ...
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C3.ai: Forgotten AI Software Player

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Update - May 28, 2025 C3.ai reported a FQ4 beat, but subscription revenues only grew 9% with all of the growth coming from prioritized professional services.  -Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.16 beats by $0.04. -Revenue of $108.72M (+25.5% Y/Y) beats by $1.02M. FY26 guidance is a very wide range with the suggestion the low end is due to geopolitical risks, though those risks have disappeared of late. The guidance suggests revenues of $464 million versus consensus estimates around $466 million for growth of 20%.  Original article posted on May 21 C3.ai, Inc. trades back at yearly lows despite reporting strong growth in the last year. The enterprise AI software company has a ramping set of pilot deals and a surge in potential new agreements due to an AI partnership with Microsoft Azure. Despite current losses, C3.ai maintains a robust cash position and is prioritizing customer acquisition over immediate profitability to capture the generative AI opportunity. AI stock is cheap, trading at...
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Trump Media: Mostly Ignored By The President

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Update - May 27, 2025 Trump Media is selling $1.5B in stock and issuing $1B in senior convertible notes to buy cryptocurrencies in an odd move, probably due to the social media failing to gain any traction. Investors have no reason to buy this stock for bitcoin, instead of just front running Trump.  -Trump Media and Technology Group ( NASDAQ: DJT )  plans to raise  $2.5B in stock and senior secured notes in a private placement with ~50 institutional investors in which to create the largest Bitcoin treasury of a public company. -“We view Bitcoin as  an apex instrument of financial freedom, and now Trump Media will hold cryptocurrency as a crucial part of our assets…and help defend our company against harassment and discrimination by financial institutions,” said Trump Media CEO Devin Nunes. Original Article posted on January 29 President Trump has appeared to focus on meme coins over improving Trump Media, leading to a lack of promotion for Truth Social. Meme coins TR...
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