Friday, July 18, 2014

Is T-Mobile Worth More?

With once struggling domestic wireless provider T-Mobile US  (NYSE: TMUS  ) now worth over $26 billion, investors should wonder if the stock has any value left. The company is rumored to be a buyout target of Sprint  (NYSE: S  ), yet its quick rise from $7.50 to nearly $33 in a span of two years should raise valuation questions.

On the backs of wireless mergers, including its own consolidation with Metro PCS, T-Mobile is now secure in a strong fourth position of the domestic wireless market. The stock now trades at nearly 1 times revenue estimates, suggesting that all of the easy money has already been made. Further, notable investor firm Omega Advisors exited its position during the first quarter further, questioning if the stock has upside value.

Read the full article here.

Disclosure: Long T. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Thursday, July 17, 2014

Antero Resources Corp: More Growth Than You'd Believe

The amount of long-term growth forecasted by Antero Resources Corporation (NYSE: AR  ) is almost unheard of outside of social media stocks, especially for a company with a greater than $15 billion market cap. The Marcellus and Utica Shale natural gas exploration and production firm is probably mostly unknown by investors after going public last October.

Despite production growth rates of over 100% and heading toward nearly 950 MMcfe/d during 2014, the company continues to forecast growth rates in excess of 50% in both 2015 and 2016. At this point, Antero appears to be overcoming the infrastructure bottlenecks that have disturbed Marcellus production by Cabot Oil & Gas (NYSE: COG  ) and Utica growth at Gulfport Energy Corp (NASDAQ: GPOR  ). The biggest question is whether the growth at Antero can be maintained as guided.

Read the full article here.

Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Yammering to Invest in Jive Software

The recent collaboration deal with Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO  ) sparks an interest in investing in Jive Software (NASDAQ: JIVE  ) again. The social business software provider offered an interesting investment concept when it came public back at the end of 2011, yet the company hasn't been able to match the success of the consumer social media stocks.

The software provider is focused on the social business platforms of portals, social intranets, and external communities that allow employees and customers to better collaborate and engage. Unfortunately, Jive Software has yet to hit the tipping point, with revenue growth only clocking in at 21% in the first quarter.

Read the full article here.

Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Keeping an Eye on the Seventy Seven Energy Spin-Off

With the spin-off from Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK  ) finally here, investors can start watching Seventy Seven Energy (NYSE: SSE  ). The oilfield services firm has had limited publicity typical of spin-offs, providing the opportunity for an attractive valuation.

One important thing investors need to understand about spin-offs is that the new companies typically come out in disarray. The parent company wouldn't typically perform the split up if it weren't for a desire to unload an underperforming unit, or at least one viewed as undervalued. In the case of Chesapeake Energy, the natural gas exploration and production firm was originally hoping to sell the company for several billion to help reduce debt at the corporate level. The spin-off was the last option.

Read the full article here.

Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Thursday, July 10, 2014

Glu Mobile: Franchise Builder

The continuing growth of app stores is making it more and more difficult for a game developer to get noticed. In the console world, the big name developers automatically got shelf space at the major retailers, locking out a lot small developers. The mobile world leveled the playing field by making it cheaper and easier to have a game released to the user base of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) and Google, yet the field is now so saturated that most games go unnoticed.

In steps the advantages of developing recognizable franchises similar to the paths of Glu Mobile (NASDAQ: GLUU  ) and Zynga (NASDAQ: ZNGA  ). In both cases, the game developers are expanding on existing franchises with refreshed games plus purchasing concepts developed by others possibly needing the distribution skills of these two firms. The key is to develop brand recognition that helps drive consistent game players while reducing the at-risk costs of developing brand new game concepts.

Read the full article here.

Disclosure: Long GLUU and ZNGA. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

This Could Send Goodrich Petroleum Stock Even Higher

Is it possible that after a volatile move higher in shares of Goodrich Petroleum Corp (NYSE: GDP  ) since February that it could head even higher and potentially significantly so? The oil exploration and production company has recently announced drilling results in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale, or TMS, that had gotten progressively better until the last well after some initially disappointing outcomes.

In reality, the recent decline from $30 only has the stock back to levels barely above the highs of 2013 while the production results suggest the company could sit on some very oily acres. Comparing the recent valuation to some other players in liquids-rich areas such as Gulfport Energy Corp (NASDAQ: GPOR  ) and Halcon Resources (NYSE: HK  ) makes the stock worth a longer look.

Read the full article here.

Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Wednesday, July 9, 2014

Update: Marin Software Preliminary Revenue And Executive Change


  • Marin forecasts exceeding Q2 guidance, and the sales chief departs.
  • Revenue growth confirms original investment thesis.
  • Marin should continue growing at a solid clip due to the increasing complexity of managing digital ad spend.
After the close, Marin Software (MRIN) announced that Q2 '14 revenue would reach $23.6 million. In addition, the company reported that the Chief Revenue Officer or more specifically the leader of the sales organization was departing the company. The news appears somewhat mixed for the SaaS company that provides a revenue acquisition platform for advertisers and agencies. The stock continues to trade virtually flat since my initial recommendation last October.

Read the full update at Seeking Alpha.

Disclosure: Long MRIN. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.