Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Net Payout Yields - Top Risk-Adjusted Returns

According to Covestor, the Net Payout Yields model has the top risk-adjusted returns on the platform over the last 365 days. As of results through February 20, the model had a Sharpe ratio of 1.98 and slightly edged out a couple of models listed below at 1.89. In total, the platform has 129 models that it beat out for the top spot.

The Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess return per unit of risk. Risk is measured in terms of volatility and excess return is measured as the investment performance greater than the risk free rate. A higher Sharpe ratio indicates more return for each unit of risk taken (a superior risk-adjusted performance.)

Disclaimer: Historical results are not indicative of future performance. Positive results are not guaranteed and individual results will vary depending on market conditions. Investing may cause capital loss. Please review the disclaimer page of the blog for more details. 

Friday, February 20, 2015

SolarCity Q4 Review: Negative Trends Continue


  • SolarCity reported Q4 earnings that missed analyst targets.
  • A couple of negative trends continue to pop up.
  • The stock isn't likely to gain traction without proper resolution of these negative trends.
SolarCity (NASDAQ:SCTY) remains good at installing new rooftop solar power systems at breakneck speed. The company though is slowly losing momentum in convincing investors that these systems make a good investment with the outlandish operating expenses. After another miss and more importantly continuing negative trends, investors don't appear so convinced that the growing solar deployments are adding the same value as proposed by the management team.

Read the full article at Seeking Alpha.

Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Thursday, February 19, 2015

Seadrill Even Leads Sector In Capital Distribution Plans


  • Transocean dividend cut proves that Seadrill appropriately paused the dividend three months ago.
  • The aggressive dividend cut by Seadrill provides more opportunity for management to allocate capital for long-term benefits.
  • The disconnect between earnings cuts and stock losses in the sector provide a great buying opportunity for Seadrill.
The weekend news that the CEO of Transocean (NYSE:RIG) was stepping down and the company is asking shareholders for a major dividend cut is another sign that Seadrill (NYSE:SDRL) is leading the sector. The offshore drillers remain in a grueling market downturn with plenty potential upside for the driller that pulls out of the downturn with the best positioned rigs and management teams.

Read the full article at Seeking Alpha.

Disclosure: Long SDRL. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Kohl's: Is The Buyback Benefit Over?


  • Kohl's turned flat revenue into yearly earnings growth due to a large stock buyback program.
  • The retailer is trading at multi-year highs despite the less than thrilling earnings growth.
  • The stock gains are limiting the stock buyback benefits just as some risks mount on the horizon.
After years of large stock buybacks and a struggling stock, Kohl's Corporation (NYSE:KSS) investors are finally seeing a large payback. The stock recently surged from $60 to $70 based on strong preliminary Q4 comp sales numbers. After several quarters of missing earnings estimates, one has to wonder if investors are getting too excited over one strong quarter.

Read the full article at Seeking Alpha.

Disclosure: Long KSS. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Yelp Faces A Major User Problem


  • Yelp reports Q414 earnings that beat analyst estimates.
  • The consumer review site has seen user growth completely stall sending the stock down roughly 20% in early trading.
  • The stock now has an attractive valuation based on growing monetization of local business accounts.
Despite strong earnings numbers, Yelp (NYSE:YELP) faces an issue with struggling user growth. Most of the metrics used to track the growth of the company remain in major growth mode, but the consumer review site is struggling to expand much beyond the 130 million MUUs (monthly unique users) that it first reached during Q114.

Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. 

Disclosure: Long YELP. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Sunday, February 15, 2015

CenturyLink: Ominous Signs


  • CenturyLink reported Q414 results that continued some negative trends.
  • The telecom giant continues to produce substantial free cash flow despite a lack of growth.
  • The stock has downside protection with a 5.5 dividend yield and a large approved stock buyback plan.
The recent quarterly results of CenturyLink (NYSE:CTL) are starting to show some cracks in the previously stable operations that offered investors high yields. The telecom giant is still struggling with the shift from legacy access lines to modern services like high-speed Internet and pay-TV services. Combined with a large stock buyback and the hope of a REIT spinoff, the stock soared above $44 during the summer. Now, however, the results are starting to lag and the buyback spending is slowing. The latter is not a good sign for a highly rewarding spinoff that would make the current stock price around $40 attractive.

Read the full article at Seeking Alpha.

Disclosure: Long CTL. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Friday, February 13, 2015

American Airlines To Benefit From Buybacks


  • American Airlines stock is down due to weak January traffic numbers.
  • The airline expects to generate attractive margins of at least 12% despite the disappointing traffic.
  • American accelerated the original stock buyback and authorized $2 billion more to spend due to the extremely cheap stock.
The January traffic numbers for American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL) were far from exciting, yet plenty of reasons exist to continue loading up on the stock. The stock continues selling off with momentum traders dumping the airline regardless of the incredible valuation it offers. Investors should consider the following reasons for buying the stock now.

Read the full article at Seeking Alpha.

Disclosure: Long AAL. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.