Posts

Out Fox The Street - Sept. 13, 2020

Image
A few ideas recently discussed with members ofOut Fox The Street:Five Below (FIVE) The specialty retailer was a recent pick sent to members in chat. The stock was trading below $110 heading into earnings a few days later on September 2. After strong FQ2 numbers, Five Below is now trading at $130 and looking to break strong resistance around $135. The stock already offers an 18% return in a matter of weeks. The retailer recently opened their 1,000th store despite the economy being shutdown for parts of the last few months. Five Below is expected to return to nearly 20% revenue growth in the current quarter ending in October. The stock should ultimately break the all-time high right below $150 as the economy rebounds. Lancadia Holdings II (LCA)Another recent pick around $15 is the future Golden Nugget Online run by Tilman Fertitta. Lancadia Holdings II is another SPAC that has an agreement to purchase GNOG. The below is a snippet of information provided to members:The stock is already u…

Nikola: Too Many Promises For Now

Nikola has a long list of promises to meet in order to reach substantial out year revenue targets.The stock currently has a $15 billion market cap due to 425 million fully diluted shares outstanding.The company remains a 2024 revenue story.Investors need to realize Nikola has 200% upside, but the stock has 90% downside risk over the next few years. As with most IPOs and newly public companies, the initial earnings report is very volatile. The Q2 earnings report for Nikola (NKLA) was no different from the general market despite the unique method of going public via a SPAC. Whether or not to invest in the stock is more related to whether the zero emissions commercial transportation system company can meet staled promises. My investment thesis remains negative on the stock, considering the huge jump in the public float and the massive valuation for a company that hasn't delivered on revenues yet.Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. 
Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review t…

Exxon Mobil: Dividend Should Be At Risk

Exxon Mobil continues to boost net debt levels in order to pay massive dividends.The energy giant continues to cut investing in the future in order to pay an 8.3% yield while watching the stock collapse.The stock isn't investable until the company cuts the dividend at least 50% similar to BP. After another quarter of massive amounts of cash exiting the balance sheet in favor of debt, Exxon Mobil (XOM) investors should want the energy giant to consider cutting the dividend. The biggest issue is that the company can't afford to correctly invest in the future with the massive dividend overhang. My negative investment thesis continues to project the stock having less value due to $15 billion in annual payouts causing irrational asset sales and volatile capital spending decisions that hurt investors.Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. 
Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please read the disclaimer page for more details. 

AMD: Another Intel Gift

Intel just delayed key manufacturing technology another 12 months.AMD should finally grab substantial market share gains in key server chips.My EPS target for AMD is now set at ~$4 based on the chip company reaching 25% market share off a $79 billion TAM. As Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) continues to prep for market share gains in semiconductor chips, Intel (INTC) provided the company the best gift ever. Not only was AMD on a path to maintain technology leadership, but also Intel announced they plan on allowing AMD to expand that leadership in the next couple of years. While the COVID-19 shutdown has potentially delayed some massive server transitions to Epyc chips, my investment thesis remains very bullish on the stock as analysts have to now raise financial models previously based on limited market share gains.Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. 
Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Snap: Not Worth The Premium

Snap reported mixed Q2 results.The company guided towards highly disappointing Q3 DAUs at only 243 million.The stock is the most expensive in the social media sector and should be avoided without leading financial results. Snap(NYSE:SNAP) is amongst the cohort of technology stocks priced for perfection when the company is imperfect. While plenty of stocks trade as if the economy doesn't recover to previous levels, Snap trades at levels suggesting a return to strong growth in 2021, despite the company still forecasting a tough ad market in Q3. With the company still losing substantial amounts on a quarterly basis, my investment thesis remains negative on the stock up in the $20s with a market cap topping $40 billion prior to the earnings report.Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. 
Disclosure: Long TWTR. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Out Fox The $treet - July 16, 2020

Image
Yext is a buy at $16. Aurora Cannabis is a buy on weakness to play a potential deal with 50% upside. Out Fox The $treet to launch soon! Stocks to watch on Thursday: Yext (YEXT)  The digital knowledge management company should see a surge in demand as retail stores constantly shift open hours and services offered in store due to COVID-19. The stock has struggled to break strong resistance in the $17-18 range. A break would easily signal a run to previous highs.  Investors need to keep in mind that Yext should return to 30% revenue growth rates once the economy normalizes. Even the worse case scenario in FY21 (January) includes 18.5% growth. The stock has constantly bounced off $16 offering another gift entry point.  The Out Fox model remains highly bullish on the stock.  Aurora Cannabis (OTC:ACB) As mentioned in the my research today, the Canadian cannabis stock is a buy on any deal with Aphria (OTC:APHA). The key is the C$200 million synergies from the deal and the potential for Aphr…

Aurora Cannabis: Promising Consolidation

Aurora Cannabis was in talks with Aphria on a merger of equals. The deal was estimated to generate C$200 million in synergies. The stocks could have had up to 50% upside on a merger. Over the last week, Aurora Cannabis (ACB) and Aphria (APHA) apparently discussed a merger with talks falling apart. A merger would've made the new entity into a global giant in the cannabis space after the Canadians have lost a ton of market leadership to U.S. firms in the last year. The synergies alone could make this a no brainer deal as Aurora Cannabis already had made an impressive transformation on costs making the long-term investment thesis on the stock more bullish. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. 
Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.