Carnival: Focus On Progress, Not Perfection

  Update Mar. 28, 2023 After reporting a better than expected quarter, investors shouldn't take the FY23 guidance to heart. The cruise line continues to head back to normal operations with massive profits in the years ahead. Carnival shouldn't be trading near all-time lows.  Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.55  beats by $0.05 . Revenue of $4.43B (+166.7% Y/Y)   beats by $130M . Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2023 was $382 million, better than the December guidance range of $250 million to $350 million, despite a $31 million  unfavorable impact from fuel price and currency rates since December guidance. Outlook: Adjusted EBITDA of $3.9 billion to $4.1 billionIncludes approximately $0.5 billion unfavorable impact from fuel price and currency compared to 2019 Sequential improvement in each quarter in adjusted EBITDA per ALBD compared to 2019, driven by closing the gap in occupancy to 2019 levels while achieving net per diems above 2019 levels Original article posted on March 21. 

IB Net Payout Yields Model

Ouster: New Day

  Update - Mar. 27, 2023 Ouster missed a great opportunity to promote the combined business of Velodyne Lidar and Ouster and the company decided to pass. The stock trades below $1 for this reason and management has to own this incompetence.  -Q4 GAAP EPS of -$0.23 misses by $0.03. -Revenue of $10.94M (-7.7% Y/Y) misses by $4.9M. -Secured company record $70 million in bookings in 2022 - Q1'23 revenue guidance of $15 to $17 million, excludes Velodyne revenues through merger close on Feb. 10. The Q4 revenue total was closer to $25 million and the Q1'23 pro-forma revenue total was probably closer to $21 million.   Update - Mar. 15, 2023 Pretty nice deal here with 100 Lidar sensors shipped at the end of '22. Ouster shouldn't be trading back below $1.  -Fieldin has already deployed dozens of kits at its customers’ farms and plans to deploy over 100 autonomy retrofit kits on tractors, each equipped with an Ouster OS1, to major customers across the United States in 2023. Ouster

SoFi: Leading In A Crisis

  SoFi launched a $2 million solution to the FDIC insurance limits in a move to garner more deposits during this banking crisis. The digital bank affirmed Q1'23 deposits should already match the $2+ billion levels of the prior 2 quarters. The fintech stock remains incredibly cheap at 11x '24 adjusted EBITDA talks. One of the best times for a company to take market share is during a crisis.  SoFi Technologies  ( NASDAQ: SOFI ) is making this move with a plan to internally boost FDIC insurance for customer accounts in  a move that shouldn't surprise investors considering how easily the lender thrived after the student debt moratorium. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bullish on the fintech set to benefit from the crisis while most regional banks contract. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

First Republic: Be Weary Of People Bearing Gifts

  First Republic continues volatile trading due to uncertainty regarding the bank's funding sources despite multiple deals. The bank was highly dependent on business accounts with an average deposit balance of $490,000 leading to these uninsured accounts likely fleeing the regional bank. Any rescue package would be highly dilutive with the market cap down to $3 billion. Investors should be wary that all of the recent bank deals have wiped out or diluted shareholders. First Republic Bank  ( NYSE: FRC ) shareholders have been on a roller coaster ride since the regional bank was first hit by worries of a run on deposits. Federal bank regulators and large domestic banks have  all offered solutions to help resolve the deposit run on First Republic, but investors should be weary of these gifts considering other bank resolutions in this crisis. My investment thesis is Neutral on the bank stock with binary outcomes leading to unacceptable risk. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Dis

Luminar Technologies: Another Big Order, Still No Respect

This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Update - Mar. 22, 2023 Just a crazy downgrade by GS to a $5 price target. The market just gives Luminar no respect for massive deals.  Goldman Sachs cut its rating on Luminar Technologies ( NASDAQ: LAZR ) to Sell from Neutral. Analyst Mark Delaney said the ratings cut reflected margin risk for LAZR and the premium valuation. While the firm continues to see Luminar  as one of the leaders in the very competitive lidar industry with recent design wins in the ADAS/AV ecosystem standing out, the near-term setup is called worrying. "We see downside to the company's margin outlook with the company targeting revenue per vehicle of ~$1k which we believe implies ASPs roughly 50-100% higher than key competitors for MEMs/solid state lidar. While Luminar attributes this higher ASP in part to software, and we believe it has some opportunities in this regard, the market f

Occidental Petroleum: Even Buffett Bought Too Soon (Rating Downgrade)

  OXY has fallen below $60 again leading to Berkshire Hathaway purchasing more shares. Energy prices have fallen to levels consistent with Q3'21 levels when the company earned far close to a $3 to $4 EPS stream. The stock isn't priced for lower earnings leaving OXY trading at ~20x '23 EPS targets. After multiple warnings to investors that one shouldn't overpay for  Occidental Petroleum Corporation  ( NYSE: OXY ), even Warren Buffett and  Berkshire Hathaway  ( BRK.B ,  BRK.A ) overpaid for the stock. The independent energy company now faces  plunging energy prices that normally occur during weak economic periods. My  investment thesis  is more Bearish on the stock until oil prices shake out at lower prices. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

XPeng: Inflection Point Ahead

  XPeng Inc. reported mixed Q4 2022 results and guidance for 2023. The CEO was very bullish on the traffic around the P7i launch and the potential of the new G6 vehicle. XPEV stock is cheap at 1x '23 sales targets with plenty of catalysts for growth, while the cash balance will limit downside risk if the company fails to hit targets. The Chinese EV manufacturer reported generally  mixed Q4'22 results , but the market is more focused on what  XPeng Inc.  ( NYSE: XPEV ) projected for 2023. The Chinese market has only slowly reopened, in a major disappointment to investors expecting a  quick ramp-up in demand. My  investment thesis  remains ultra-Bullish on the stock trading at the recent lows, while the rebound opportunity remains massive. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.