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Aurora Cannabis: Legitimate $1 Target

Aurora Cannabis is attempting to sell a facility once planned to produce 105,000 kg of cannabis. The major Canadian cannabis stocks don't trade at distressed levels. The stock has a legitimate reason for trading at $1 per share or 2x FY21 sales estimates. My constant warning on Aurora Cannabis (ACB) has been the risks associated with the stock still trading on elevated expectations. Despite large declines, most of the Canadian cannabis stocks don't trade at distressed levels. The stock could very easily hit the $1 price target prescribed by Piper Sandler last week. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

AMD: Possible Three-Peat In 2020

AMD topped the S&P 500 with a nearly 150% gain in 2019 after leading the index in 2018. Investors shouldn't bet on a three-peat performance, but the stock has the possibility for another strong year. My 2020 EPS estimate remains $10 billion revenues, $1.50 EPS plus a longer term $3+ EPS target. One of my favorite picks in 2018 and 2019 ended on a strong note last year. The prospects of Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) repeating the strong gain a third year wouldn't appear high, especially topping the S&P 500 for a third consecutive year. After all, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) followed huge gains in 2016 and 2017 with a down 2018. Investors shouldn't bet heavily on a three-peat with AMD, but the stock remains poised for a strong run in the '20s decade. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. 
Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.

Pinterest: Biggest 2020 Bet On IPO Flops

Pinterest ended the year down over 20% from their initial trading price of $23.75. A lot of high profile 2019 IPOs flopped. The social media stock has the most promising valuation and path to profits. My target is still $15 with a forward EV/S multiple of 5.3x. A broken IPO can be one of the best ways to buy a great company at a reasonable price. With 2019 being a year where prominent IPOs failed to live up to expectations, Recodehighlighted the stocks that struggled in 2019 and unfortunately most of the stocks on the list aren't appealing after their busted IPO due to weak financials. One stock stands out with my negative investment thesis about to turn bullish. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. 
Disclosure: Long TWTR. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Aurora Cannabis: Problematic Profit Picture

Aurora Cannabis still has a long road to reach profitability. Without cutting costs, the company has to grow quarterly revenues by over $50 million while hitting 60% gross margins. The departure of the Chief Corporate Officer is another red flag and could indicate a planned restructuring in the works. Avoid the stock until Aurora Cannabis can improve the profit picture. Over the last week, Aurora Cannabis (NYSE:ACB) has seen a couple of key persons flee the company. The lack of a catalyst from Cannabis 2.0 products has to question the profitability picture of the Canadian cannabis LP in 2020 and beyond reinforcing my negative investment thesis. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. 
Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Out Fox The $treet - December 31, 2019

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Stocks to watch on the last day of 2019:

AMD (AMD) - Rosenblatt raises the price target for the chip stock to $65. Analyst Hans Mosesmann has a similar view on the stock as Stone Fox Capital. The stock remains extended as 2019 comes to close. Investors will want to look for a pullback to start 2020 after the massive year end rally.


Cronos Group (CRON) - pot stocks are seeing a big rally to end 2019. Cronos Group is up 17%, but the move just appears a dead cat rally. Don't chase any of the Canadian cannabis stocks higher.

Disclosure: No position. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Twilio: Stuck At $100

Twilio has a market valuation already at $15 billion. Revenue per share is only forecasted to growth at 29% in 2019. Massive share dilution has captured a vast majority of the recent revenue growth, limiting benefits to shareholders. The stock trades at a peak valuation near $100 of 10x '20 sales estimates. For the last couple of months, Twilio (TWLO) has been stuck around $100. After absorbing the SendGrid acquisition, my investment thesis was negative on the stock, based on a trend towards investors chasing revenue expansion and fading stocks with decelerating revenue growth. As 2019 ends, the company is on a path towards normalized revenue growth, and the question is what is the appropriate valuation for a stock with 30% growth, not something wild like 70% growth officially reported in the last quarter. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. 
Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Aurora Cannabis: No Thanks To Ontario!

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Ontario finally plans to allow new cannabis retail stores, but the 2020 target is far below industry hopes. Cannabis 2.0 rollout appears disappointing in part due to lack of Ontario retail stores until mid-2020. The $3 billion stock price remains expensive with capital needs while facing more industry delays. Just when the Canadian cannabis sector appeared headed towards a couple of major catalysts in 2020, the sector has again been sabotaged by the governments inability to license new stores or break the illegal market. My investment thesis was looking for a chance to turn bullish on Aurora Cannabis (ACB), but the company remains in a tough financial situation until catalysts kick in later into 2020. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Update - December 23, 2019 Not surprising with all of the Cannabis 2.0 delays, Aurora Cannabis hit a new low today. The stock needs to test the sub-$2 range and once coming out the other side, ACB could become a buy. 


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