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Updated - Jan. 2, 2025 Luminar Tech. has been crushed since reporting earnings and completing a reverse stock split. The other more speculative Lidar plays like Innoviz Tech. (INVZ) and AEye (LIDR) have both doubled by avoiding the reverse split.  Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Original article posted on Nov. 13.  Luminar Technologies, Inc. is making progress with new deals, but financials remain weak, requiring patience for long-term gains. Volvo's EX90 production ramp and a second model with Iris LiDAR promise future revenue growth, despite current low sales. Luminar's insurance program could offer significant savings, potentially making LiDAR cost-effective for consumers. Despite frustrating financials, Luminar's strategic cost savings and production ramp-up suggest better financials by 2026. The autonomous driving sector continues to heat up, but  ...

Luminar Technologies is trading at all-time lows, but has a strong lineup and large contracts with auto manufacturers set to ramp in 2024. The company showcased its Lidar technology at CES 2024, featuring in various exhibits and debuting new features. The stock has a market cap of a fraction of the order book, forecast to have already topped $4.4 billion. Luminar Technologies  ( NASDAQ: LAZR ) is trading at the all-time lows, but the company recently highlighted a strong lineup at CES 2024. The Lidar company has several large contracts in place with large auto manufacturers, set to ramp  in 2024. My  investment thesis  is ultra Bullish on the stock, with investors abandoning ship while the prospects are the most positive. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Update - Nov. 15 Good sign Luminar has finally hit bottom. The stock has rallied over 13% after the reversal on Nov. 14.  Original article posted on Nov. 10 Luminar Technologies, Inc. faces production start delays at a key partner that limited revenue ramp in 2023. The Lidar company was hit by multiple project delays in the last quarter, contributing to a Q3 2023 miss, though revenues should surge in Q4. The stock trades at a massive discount to the order book with a market cap of only $1.2 billion, making Luminar stock a speculative buy. Out Fox The Street members get exclusive access to our real-world portfolios. See all of our investments  here »   The Lidar sector faces a volatile ramp path due to the implementation of new technologies into auto production requiring years of testing and unpredictable new vehicle launches.  Luminar Technologies, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: LAZR ) is the latest company to get snarled in production start delays of a major auto manufacturer...

Update - May 18, 2023 Apparent massive insider buying by the CEO. Russell Austin appears to have bought 3.6 million shares for $21.6 million in the prior couple of trading days.  Update - Apr. 20  Despite all the good news, Luminar trades back to nearly $6. The stock appears to have strong support around this area. While it isn't clear when investors will finally believe the bullish stories in the Lidar space, it will eventually occur. Investors buying weakness will be rewarded.  Original article posted on Apr. 18  Luminar announces plans for another Lidar sensor factory to build another 600K sensors annually. The company already has a backlog of $3.4 billion with a forecast to reach $4.4 billion this year. LAZR stock is cheap trading near all-time lows despite continuing to line up new orders and building more factories to meet targets for 100% growth. In a somewhat surprising announcement,  Luminar Technologies  ( NASDAQ: LAZR ) is suddenly buil...

This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Update - Mar. 22, 2023 Just a crazy downgrade by GS to a $5 price target. The market just gives Luminar no respect for massive deals.  Goldman Sachs cut its rating on Luminar Technologies ( NASDAQ: LAZR ) to Sell from Neutral. Analyst Mark Delaney said the ratings cut reflected margin risk for LAZR and the premium valuation. While the firm continues to see Luminar  as one of the leaders in the very competitive lidar industry with recent design wins in the ADAS/AV ecosystem standing out, the near-term setup is called worrying. "We see downside to the company's margin outlook with the company targeting revenue per vehicle of ~$1k which we believe implies ASPs roughly 50-100% higher than key competitors for MEMs/solid state lidar. While Luminar attributes this higher ASP in part to software, and we believe it has some opportunities in this regard, th...

Update - Jan. 11 Luminar hit bottom right after Citron publicly released the short attack... hmm Original article posted on Jan. 7 Luminar Tech. confirmed the Lidar sensor company achieved a 60% boost for the forward-looking order book. The company now has a order book topping $3.4 billion, nearly double the current market cap. The stock is cheap, but the company gets no respect for the potential order book size in a few years. After another strong quarterly update,  Luminar Technologies  ( NASDAQ: LAZR ) shareholders still find the stock floundering. The Lidar sensor company continues to line up a massive forward-looking orderbook absolutely ignored by the market. My  investment thesis  is  ultra Bullish on the stock after the dip below $5 corresponds with a flip in the calendar one step closer to full production on multiple automotive programs. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page f...

  Luminar Technologies continues making progress towards launching series production of Lidar sensors. Unfortunately, the company only guided to 2022 revenues of $40+ million despite an order backlog heading towards $3 billion this year. The company unwisely spent $300 million in share buybacks despite being in a major investment cycle. The stock will likely trade flat until more analyst coverage and actual confidence in the order book turning into future revenues. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » Luminar Technologies  ( NASDAQ: LAZR ) continues to rapidly expand their Lidar sensor order backlog, but the market wants to see more actual revenues. Last year, the company launched a large stock buyback unwarranted based on 2022 guidance. My  investment thesis  remains Neutral on the stock until the market has more confidence in the business model and shifts focus to the order book. Read the ful...

  Luminar continues to add partnerships and build their order book beyond the $1.8 billion target for 2021. The company continues to supply lidar sensors to the biggest players in the auto sector, including a surprise test with Tesla. The stock has limited upside trading at 8.5x 2025 revenue targets. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » The lidar space remains the Wild West of the public stock market where companies went public via SPACs at high valuations based on current revenues.  Luminar Technologies  ( LAZR ) is the leader in the space with connections to the biggest auto companies and the first to go public, but the stock remains at an elevated valuation. My  investment thesis  is more Neutral on Luminar after the recent sell-off leaves the stock closer to the lows. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please...