IB Net Payout Yields Model

Stat of the Day 2: Empire Strikes Back

More good news on the economic front overlooked today from the Empire Fed Manufacturing report. Another 'best since Oct 2007' reading for future expectations. The number was a remarkable 44 which is way above zero and considerably more bullish then any other reading in the index. Shipments were positive for the first time in months. Inventories remained considerably negative which is actually bullish because they'll need to restock in the near future.

The only major negative was a decline in orders. Though the number was still better then the March lows. The huge bounce in April probably contributed to the slack in May.

  • The New York Fed's "Empire State" general business conditions index climbed to minus 4.55 in May--its highest since August 2008--from minus 14.65 in April. In March, the index sagged to minus 38.23, its weakest since its launch in July 2001.
  • the regional Fed's index on future business conditions rose to 43.8, its highest since October 2007.
  • The regional Fed's employment index climbed to minus 23.86 in May from minus 28.09 in April, while its shipment index rose to 1.29, the first time it was above zero since last summer, prior to the peak of the financial crisis.
  • Its inventory reading increased to minus 21.59 from a record low of minus 35.96 in April.
  • The report's new order index retreated to minus 9.01 from minus 3.88 in April when it posted a huge 40-point jump from March.


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