Showing posts from February, 2024

IB Net Payout Yields Model

Lumen Technologies: Don't Mistakenly Look Back

Lumen Technologies' Q4'24 results show all key metrics in decline, indicating the business has not turned around. The company's perpetual restructuring and constant race to the bottom are major issues for its turnaround strategy. Lumen's debt restructuring has resulted in higher interest expenses of $175 million at the midpoint hitting cash flows, making it a stock to avoid. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » After warning investors months ago to not look back at an opportunity to invest in the beaten down  Lumen Technologies  ( NYSE: LUMN ), a positive move by the stock following Q4'24 results provided some hope  the telecom had indeed turned around the business. After reviewing the results, this most definitely doesn't appear the case with all key metrics in decline. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on the stock, even down at only $1. Read the

Snap Up More Shares

Update - February 6, 2024 Q4 numbers were solid, but the market isn't happy. Snap is down some 30% after hours despite guiding towards Q1 revenue growth of up to 15%. The stock is a bargain on massive weakness due to the strong move towards subscriptions.  -Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.08 beats by $0.02. -Rev of $1.36B (+5% Y/Y) misses by $20M. -DAUs increased 10% year-over-year to 414 million Guidance Rev of $1,095 million to $1,135 million vs $1.12B consensus, implying YoY growth of 11% to 15%. -Snapchat+, our subscription service that offers exclusive, experimental, and pre-release features grew from 2 million to  7 million subscribers in 2023, and exited the year with an annualized revenue run rate of $249 million. Original article published on Dec. 21, 2023 Snap Inc. shares have doubled in the last quarter and have significant upside potential. The Snapchat+ subscription service has seen explosive growth, with the potential to quickly surpass $500 million in annualized revenue in ear

DraftKings: Missed The Inflection Point Bottom

  DraftKings has shifted from reporting large losses to achieving EBITDA profits, making the stock more attractive to investors. The company forecasts a surge in the total addressable market for sports gaming, with a revenue target of $7.1 billion by 2028. The stock is still relatively cheap at ~8.5x the 2028 EBITDA targets without any additional states gaining legalization. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Unfortunately,  DraftKings  ( NASDAQ: DKNG ) wasn't on the watchlist last Spring when the stock traded below $15 with the company reporting large losses. The sports gaming company was maligned for those large ongoing losses, and the sudden shift to EBITDA  profits places the stock in a different light by investors. My investment thesis is still Bullish on the stock due to the attractive valuation, though one might want to wait for a pullback to buy shares. Read the