Out Fox The $treet

Stocks to watch on Tuesday: Glu Mobile (GLUU)  - the stock is soaring from an addition to the S&P SmallCap 600 index. The stock is incredible cheap at slightly over 2x bookings estimates. Glu Mobile has a huge gap to close here.  Aphria (APHA)  - the stock is up over 20% on a relief rally following a big dip in the stock price since the start of September. The Canadian cannabis company saw revenues decline from the prior quarter and adjusted EBITDA from the cannabis operations drop. The key was the reaffirming of guidance: revenues $650 million to $700 million and adjusted EBITDA of ~$90 million. The stock has a market cap of only $1.3 billion or about 14x EBITDA estimates. Aphria should bounce from here.  Snap (SNAP)  - the social messaging stock appears a good short, if the stock fails to break above $14 here. Snap shouldn't be above a market cap of $20 billion while still generating large EBITDA losses on revenues of $2.2 billion next year. ...

Glu Mobile plunges despite solid Q1 numbers and 2019 bookings. The company forecasts Q2 bookings of $101 million that would be a new company record. The stock is insanely cheap at under 3x 2020 revenue forecasts. A lot of times the initial reaction to earnings results are wrong. In the case of the   Q1 results   for   Glu Mobile   ( GLUU ), the initial selloff is clearly a stock market misguided by the interpretation of the crucial bookings guidance. The stock remains incredibly cheap as the company boosted guidance. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  More commentary - WhoTrades Disclosure: Long GLUU. Please read the disclaimer page for more details.   

Glu Mobile (GLUU) initially plunges following what appear to be solid Q4 numbers and 2019 guidance: Bookings $98.2m versus estimates of $95.6M EPS of $0.062 2019 Bookings guidance $435 to $445 million versus estimates of $442 million

The ability of Glu Mobile ( GLUU ) to keep Design Home as a top grossing game has been the basis of a long-term bullish thesis on this stock. The mobile-game developer no longer has to generate new hit games in order to grow revenues that are needed to push the stock higher.

Anybody following here knows that Glu Mobile ( GLUU ) has long been a strong buy. The mobile-game developer struggled with consistency until the CEO was replaced a few years back. The stock is now hitting all-time highs with a breakout above $8.

Glu Mobile reported solid Q3 results. The company remains on track to generate bookings approaching $500 million in the next year or so. The stock remains exceptionally cheap at a P/S ratio of 2x. The new and improved  Glu Mobile  ( GLUU ) continues to chug along producing consistently better results. My  investment thesis  that the stock is one hit game away from a big rally is even truer now with the stock selling off below $7 after the tech wreck of October. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long GLUU. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Glu Mobile successfully launched the latest version of the Tap Sports Baseball franchise. The company still offers the home run potential of new games though recent history has been disappointing. The stock is extremely cheap based on existing franchises trading at only 1.35x forward revenue estimates. Despite the volatile market for the tech sector in 2018,  Glu Mobile  ( GLUU ) has generally held up well. The stock started the year around $3.60 and currently trades near $3.70 due to the extreme value in the stock and the stability provided by franchise games like Tap Sports Baseball. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long GLUU. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Glu Mobile should turn profitable in 2018. Consistent growth from live operations of franchise games has turned the company around. The stock still trades at an extremely low valuation. The quarterly results came and went, yet  Glu Mobile  ( GLUU ) outlined a solid 2018 plan that hardly includes the recently released Taylor Swift game. As my  previous research  presented, the mobile-game developer has a growth plan that doesn't rely on new games that will drive the stock price higher. Any future big hit is only a bonus. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long GLUU. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Glu Mobile released the long anticipated Taylor Swift app. The current value is justified by existing game lineup, especially the ongoing success of Design Home. Success of the new celebrity app would lead to significant multiple expansion. The long awaited release of  The Swift Life  by  Glu Mobile  ( GLUU ) has the investor base anxious. A big hit would no doubt send the stock soaring while another celebrity flop could sending the stock crashing. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long GLUU. Please read the disclaimer page for more details. 

Glu Mobile reported strong Q1 bookings and increased guidance for the year. The new CEO is correctly focused on building live operations for existing platform games to further reduce the need for a mega hit. The stock remains extremely cheap despite a recent 30% surge in price. The recent  Q1 results  for  Glu Mobile  (NASDAQ: GLUU ) were a huge departure from past quarterly reports. The new CEO actually delivered on smashing booking forecasts without having a mega hit for a one-time bump to results making my  investment thesis  for buying the stock at $2. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long GLUU. Please read the disclaimer page for more details. 

The new celebrity game is a big hit even prior to the official release. The Kendall & Kylie game brings an additional game into the celebrity theme to test the ability to incrementally grow the concept. Based on initial success, Glu Mobile is on pace to smash Q1 guidance. After the failed release of the Katy Perry Pop game, Glu Mobile (NASDAQ: GLUU ) sank an incredible amount. The stock fell all the way to a low of $1.98 with the recent market selloff, but my recommendation remained firm that large opportunities existed for a big rebound. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long GLUU. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Along with the Q4 release was news that Glu Mobile (GLUU) purchased game developer Plain Vanilla Corp. The company paid $7.5 million in a convertible note for a minority stake in the maker of the game QuizUp . The deal apparently gives Glu the opportunity to purchase the company in the next 15 months at a pre-agreed price. The deal involves Glu Mobile helping Plain Vanilla develop a QuizUp television program for NBC Universal. Also, Glu is going to help Plain Vanilla monetize the mobile game that isn't being done currently. Based on the revenue generated by fellow trivia game Trivia Crack , QuizUp has tons of potential for generating sizable revenues. Currently, Trivia Crack makes roughly $50,000 on a daily basis with the iPhone in the U.S. Of course, Trivia Crack has slightly higher download rankings so these numbers might not be achievable. Source: ThinkGaming.com Based on recent history, Glu Mobile is relatively successful in turning these deals for small game dev...

Glu Mobile easily surpassed Q4 estimates despite the Katy Perry game flopping. Sustaining games and new investments provide a huge opportunity going forward. The valuation of the stock is already pricing in further game failures not supported by beta tests. Glu Mobile's (NASDAQ: GLUU ) Q4 earnings release and conference call were filled with unanswered questions and promising opportunities. The most immediate takeaway was that the stock overshot on the pessimism with the drop to $2 and is surging over 30% following the news. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long GLUU. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

With the soft release of the Katy Perry Pop game yesterday,  Glu Mobile (GLUU) investors need to keep in mind the following records set with the release of Kim Kardashian: Hollywood . A lot of the milestones provided by Glu Mobile aren't specific numbers so some difficulty exists in matching up the success of the two games. Guess the ultimate key is reaching the #5 top grossing position on the iPhone. Glu milestones include: Single-day total company revenue record Highest single-day DAU in company history (10M+) Glu overall single-day revenues exceeding the previous one-day record each of the last 18 days Dino Hunter: Deadly Shores  and  Kim Kardashian: Hollywood  simultaneously achieved #1 and #3 chart position on U.S. App Store Top Free for iPhone Dino Hunter: Deadly Shores  milestones include:  Single-day Glu record of (1.5M+) downloads globally from an individual Glu title Glu record (5.7M+) downloads in first 5 days of global release ...

Glu Mobile is a bargain trading below $3.50 even without a hit. The celebrity games offer the promise for another big hit with several opportunities in the pipeline. The surprising success of celebrity games over the Thanksgiving holiday should spark interest in the stock. The prime reason my investment thesis on Glu Mobile (NASDAQ: GLUU ) didn't change after the disappointing Q3 results was the upcoming lineup in celebrity games. The combination with the lower stock price offered a very compelling entry point considering the primary 2H games weren't released yet. The market though wasn't pleased with the delays of these games and indiscriminately sold the stock. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Long GLUU. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Glu Mobile produced Q2 '15 numbers above analyst estimates. The mobile game developer continues to see strong staying power from the top franchises. The stock is incredibly cheap at less than 2x 2016 revenue estimates set to rock higher based on games slipping from 2015.          Each and every quarter, Glu Mobile (NASDAQ: GLUU ) produces improving results while the market focuses on the quarter to quarter game releases. After reporting a solid Q215 beat , the stock is trading down based on some disappointing short-term guidance that doesn't impact long-term expectations. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long GLUU. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Mobile game developers are struggling now, but investors shouldn't overlook the valuation prospects when the stocks turn around. Electronic Arts and Activision Blizzard don't offer any growth, yet the market is rewarding these stocks higher valuations. Investors should review how the console game developers turned around weak prospects to huge stock gains before dismissing the stocks focused on mobile games. Everybody knows that videogame players are shifting to mobile, but ironically the console game developers continue to reign supreme. Typically, the small growth companies garner the highest valuation multiples, but that isn't the case in the videogame developer sector. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Long GLUU and ZNGA. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Glu Mobile provided aggressive 2020 revenue projections. The long-term forecasts don't match the short-term forecasts presented in each earnings report. The analysis suggests the 2020 projections are more probable due to emerging mobile-game trends and a consistent history of beating short-term targets. The stock is attractively valued at around $6.50 based on the potential to smash analyst revenue estimates for 2015 and beyond. As discussed in a previous article , Glu Mobile (NASDAQ: GLUU ) provided an exceptionally large revenue target for 2020 at their Analyst Day. These targets are usually scary to see from a corporation when a business such as mobile games is inherently difficult to predict. It's best for the company to stick to beating one-year goals. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Long GLUU. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Summary Glu Mobile signs the Jenner sisters to the celebrity game platform. The sisters have a social media following similar to when the Kim Kardashian game was announced back in late 2013. Along with the Katy Perry game, Glu Mobile appears set to yet again smash conservative revenue forecasts for 2015. Going over nine months after watching the stock soar to over $7.50, Glu Mobile (NASDAQ: GLUU ) now trades substantially below that level. The stock initially hit those highs on the basis of the Kim Kardashian game success, yet months later the game has remained relevant and Glu Mobile has other celebrity stars lined up. The fear that the game and concept aren't repeatable should continue to disappear as the year progresses. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Long GLUU. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Summary Glu Mobile smashed Q4 earnings estimates due to in large part to the lasting success of the Kim Kardashian game. The mobile game developer signed an exclusive deal with Katy Perry to produce a game for release in late 2015. Stock remains attractively priced at only $530 million with huge potential upside from the Katy Perry game due to large fan base. Glu Mobile (NASDAQ: GLUU ) announced blowout Q414 earnings along with the signing of a five-year, exclusive mobile gaming partnership with singer Katy Perry. After a year of record revenue for the mobile game developer, based mostly of the success of the Kim Kardashian game, a comparison of social media fandom between the two stars could portend a higher level of success for the Katy Perry game. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Long GLUU. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.