Out Fox The $treet

  Meta Platforms is set to retest the recent lows at $185. The company faces tough user comps due to COVID pull forwards similar to what has hit Netflix. The stock is cheap at less than 14x '23 EPS targets, but a bounce off the recent lows is key to whether the stock is safe to buy here. Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.  Learn More » After a disastrous start to 2022,  Meta Platforms  ( NASDAQ: FB ) appears to have set a bottom with the steep plunge in early February leading to a low of $185 in March. The social media company remains in  growth mode despite the obvious concerns about the advertising business model and COVID pull forwards in 2021. My  investment thesis  is vastly more Bullish on the stock trading near $200 with a lot of the expected near-term weakness built into the price. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position...

  Meta Platforms '22 EPS estimate has seen major cuts by analysts. The company forecast the Reality Labs division to see meaningful losses beyond the $10 billion loss in 2021. The stock trades closer to 20x reasonable '22 EPS targets, making Meta still expensive for the lack of EPS growth. Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.  Learn More » Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Another top trending article on Seeking Alpha. 

  Pinterest reports a mixed picture for Q3'21 with MAUs again down 13 million sequentially. The stock is soaring AHs based on solid guidance and a return to user growth in January. The stock trades at ~6x sales targets making Pinterest appealing here with a return to user growth and a long path towards higher ARPUs. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » Following the horrendous Q4'21 results from  Meta Platforms  ( FB ), the market was fearing the worst from  Pinterest  ( PINS ) heading into their quarterly report. The company didn't exactly wow investors with the  quarterly numbers , but the stock is soaring on better than feared guidance. My  investment thesis  is more Bullish on Pinterest in the low-$30s following a 50% decline in the stock heading into earnings. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review t...

  Meta Platforms reported a horrible quarter in the first quarterly report after changing its name from Facebook. The social media platform is now losing over $13 billion annually on the Reality Labs segment focused on the Metaverse. The stock isn't investable with the disconnect between revenue growth and soaring expenses leading to massive EPS cuts going forward. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  The article is currently the top trending one on Seeking Alpha. 

  Roblox has recently reported a moderation in the growth trends from COVID-19 lockdowns. The business growing at a 20% clip in 2022 would be impressive on top of the tough comps, but the growth rate wouldn't impress shareholders. The stock is far too expensive at a $50 billion valuation for a more normal growth trend as revenues top $3 billion next year. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » As the August monthly metrics for  Roblox  ( RBLX ) highlighted, the gravy days for the business are over as the COVID-19 boost wanes. The stock still trades close to the all-time highs with a market valuation approaching $50 billion despite a return to more normalized growth rates. My investment thesis is Bearish on the stock while the company has a great long-term opportunity to grow their global platform eventually making the stock a buy. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha....

  Pinterest continues to trade near the lows of 2021 as user questions mount with the tough comps from the COVID-19 shutdowns. The social media platform has grown revenues by 50% in the last year and should maintain solid revenue growth due to higher ARPUs. The stock isn't cheap at 10x EV/S multiple, but investors should buy the company on a market induced dip. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » The stock market can be a fickle place with a company valued based on the last quarterly results, not the normal growth rates of the business.  Pinterest  ( PINS ) is a prime example of a business that boomed during COVID-19 lockdowns and is now struggling with tough comps. My  investment thesis  is turning more Bullish on the stock after the excess valuations of early 2021. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long TWTR. Please review the disc...

Pinterest never provided the major selloff opportunity. The coronavirus fears offer an ideal entry point around $21. The stock now trades at only 5.7x forward EV/S targets despite 30% growth expectations. Sometimes stocks just run and investors have to pass on them while waiting for a better entry point.  Pinterest  ( PINS ) fit into this category following the substantial rally in early 2020, but the market dip following the coronavirus outbreak is providing another opportunity here. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long TWTR. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Pinterest ended the year down over 20% from their initial trading price of $23.75. A lot of high profile 2019 IPOs flopped. The social media stock has the most promising valuation and path to profits. My target is still $15 with a forward EV/S multiple of 5.3x. A broken IPO can be one of the best ways to buy a great company at a reasonable price. With 2019 being a year where prominent IPOs failed to live up to expectations,  Recode   highlighted  the stocks that struggled in 2019 and unfortunately most of the stocks on the list aren't appealing after their busted IPO due to weak financials. One stock stands out with my  negative investment  thesis about to turn bullish. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long TWTR. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Pinterest dipped 20% following investor disappointment over Q3 results. The company actually generated strong revenue and MAU growth showing the existence of a good business. The market remains partially offside on Pinterest by not using the fully diluted share count of 651 million shares. Based on the other social stock valuations, my ideal target remains ~$15. The general impression from the Q3 results for  Pinterest  ( PINS ) was a solid quarter. The stock fell up to 20% following the report as the problem was the valuation was priced for perfection. Even strong revenue growth wan't enough to keep the stock valuation above $15 billion and investors shouldn't expect much upside with the stock still at $20. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  More commentary - WhoTrades Disclosure: Long TWTR. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

After a crazy rally to $18, Snap (SNAP) is finally coming back to earth in early October. Even worse for shareholders, the stock hit a double top as big competitor Facebook (FB) releases a new app targeted at their market. Whether or not Threads works long term is probably irrelevant to this stock story. The key is that Snap can't afford any more hiccups in their business model with the stock having a $20+ billion valuation with targets for adjusted EBITDA to still stay very negative. The Q3 guidance was for a $72.5M EBITDA loss. While in the process of still battling it out with the much larger Facebook, the stock trades at the highest P/S multiple in the sector. Throw in the BoA analysis that app downloads slowed in Q3 and the stock is likely headed back to the sub-$10 billion range. More commentary - WhoTrades Update - October 4 Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to an Equal Weight today with a $17 price target. No rally on a big rally in the market is a su...

Facebook has a new product with far more potential than a digital coin. Facebook Watch now has a MAU base of 720 million that far tops other social platforms. The video streaming service is forecast to top $5 billion in annual revenues. The stock has already rallied $30 off the monthly lows suggesting an ideal entry will come after a pause. While the market is focused on the  digital coin hype , Facebook ( FB ) has a hot new product that is already generating substantial revenues. The key to success in the large-cap tech space has traditionally centered around products that keep the company true to their core. Facebook has hit on a winner with Facebook Watch, which is a similar ad-supported product that is boosting growth. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  

After the close, Facebook (FB) reported Q4 results that smashed estimates. The stock is up 12% in initial after-hours trading and will likely stay above $150 for good now.

  Recode has a nice graph slowing the sudden slow down in US and Canada social media users on Facebook (FB) , Twitter ( TWTR ) and Snap ( SNAP ) . All 3 major platforms saw users decline during 2018. The question is whether any of these stocks offer investment opportunities in 2019.

Facebook set 2018 targets so low that the company has an easy hurdle in 2019. EPS estimates are already starting to trend higher, and the stock is following. The company will lower expense growth estimates throughout this year. A focus on family DAUs will provide support for long-term revenue growth. The stock trades at about 18x ultimate '19 EPS estimates of $8. Though   Facebook   ( FB ) continued to collapse with the market correction leading to the Christmas Eve massacre where the stock dipped to $123, the company set the seeds for a bottom in early December. The large stock buyback and an   altered DNA   has the company positioned for a better 2019 while the market is busy looking backward at the adjustments already made by CEO Mark Zuckerberg. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long TWTR. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.   

Facebook continues to face a very negative news flow. Users deleting Facebook appears to have already peaked. The EPS trend has started heading back up. An additional $9 billion stock buyback authorization helps shift investor sentiment back positive. When a stock quits going down on negative news, the stock has probably hit the lows.  Facebook  ( FB ) finds itself in that position with an ongoing negative news flow and a stock that has rallied off the November 19 low and held in the face of a another market selloff. My  investment thesis  was negative on the stock when $150 didn't hold, but the thesis is shifting back bullish here below $140. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. 

The streaming video wars should reach peak competitive levels in 2019. Netflix enters the competition while burning cash at a $3 billion annual rate. The entry of the tech giants leaves Netflix at a balance sheet disadvantage with net debt approaching $10 billion in 2019. The stock is due for another rally in early 2019 for investors to fade. The planed addition of several tech giants along with traditional media players into the direct-to-consumer streaming video segment should expose the biggest weakness of leader  Netflix  ( NFLX ). The problems with developing a leading market position without building up a pristine balance sheet is that competitors can easily attack the company's weakness and ultimately prevent a player like Netflix from achieving the massive cash flows and profits warranting a market valuation of $132 billion. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.

Facebook smashed Q3 EPS estimates as analysts likely overcorrected on cost estimates. The social networking platform still faces significant margin pressure in 2019. 2019 analyst estimates still need to contract before investors can get an all-clear on the stock at the $150 level. Prior to its  Q3 earnings report , my  investment thesis  on  Facebook (NASDAQ: FB ) was focused on the double hits the company was taking for the same issues. The thesis further supported that the social networking giant was likely to beat estimates, as costs failed to materialize as projected. The stock is a Buy with a $150 reference point as soon as analysts lower EPS estimates for 2019. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. 

AT&T launched their rebranded digital ad business. Xandr is only estimated at 3% of the total revenue base. Any success of Xandr provides upside to my previous $40 base case target. The business is off to a troubling start with AppNexus CEO leaving. Last week,   AT&T   ( T ) ushered in the aggressive move into advertising. The wireless giant hopes to more effectively compete in the advertising sector against the tech giants by collecting more data from customers via various video and wireless connections. Unfortunately, the   newly created Xandr   is more likely to resemble the failure of Oath from   Verizon Communications ( VZ ). Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long T. Please read the disclaimer page for more details.   

Snap continues to face incredible competition from Instagram that even challenges the dominance in the under 18 crowd. The stock currently trades at a higher EV/S multiple in comparison to dominant peers. Snap price target lowered from $7 to $5. As   Snap   ( SNAP ) falls to new lows, investors need to understand that the stock doesn't offer any value. This isn't a stock to buy on dips other than for a quick dead-cat bounce. My   previous target   of $7 is lowered to $5 for a market valuation of roughly $7 billion. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long TWTR. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.   

CEO Jack Dorsey testified in Washington D.C. alongside Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg. One day Twitter will have a market value that matches the influence of the platform. Revenue estimates and digital ad forecasts have missed the turnaround at the social platform. As the social networking sites   appeared in Washington D.C.   to testify in front of the Senate Intelligence Committee, one noticeable distinguish occurred.   Twitter   ( TWTR ) leader Jack Dorsey became the center focus of the discussions with Congress including an additional committee meeting showcasing the power of Twitter even in comparison to   Facebook   ( FB ) and   Alphabet   ( GOOG ,   GOOGL ). Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long TWTR. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.