Posts

Showing posts with the label Tech Ticker

IB Net Payout Yields Model

Fear of Radiation Exposure Overdone

At least that is what most experts continue to report. Market keeps getting crushed despite most of the experts downplaying all the risks on radiation. Use your own judgement on the risk of a radiation crisis in Japan, but the risks seem a lot lower then the panic on the street. Naturally I wouldn't want to hang around within 50 miles of the Fukushima plant and take even a 5% risk, but that doesn't mean investors should flee stocks. Whats absurd today is the market swooned on reports from a EU energy minister called the situations a 'catastrophe'. Though he was only throwing in his conjecture of the whole situation the market took it to mean a radiation catastrophe was just starting. Now we're hearing news that the Japanese utility has just about got a new power line to the location that could hopefully turn the cooling system back on. The new remains fluid, but the Chernobyl situation doesn't appear on the table and if so stocks are very cheap. Watch the  T...

Tech Ticker Interview Slams Sears CEO Hire

Tech Ticker's interview with Jeff Matthews completely slams the new CEO Lou D'ambrosio hired by Eddie Lampert at Sears Holdings (SHLD). The problem is that the whole interview focuses solely on SHLD as a store based retailer. That isn't the goal of this company and it completely highlights the misunderstanding of the goal by most of Wall Street. Eddie has longed seen this company has having valuable assets including real estate and brands. The value in the retail concept is to spin off cash. In fact see the article that we just wrote last week for Seeking Alpha: Is Sears Holdings Becoming a Tech Stock of Just a Future LBO? Maybe Mr. Matthews is correct that they need to focus on the retail store concept, but he seems delusional that spending up to $30B on the concept would the best way to go. Seriously? The company would be broke at that point. The goal is to increase shareholder value. It's not to make SHLD a top retailer that can compete with Wal-Martt. He does ...

SP500 Could Hit 3,000 By 2020

Interesting to actually see a bullish clip on Yahoo's Tech Ticker. This service typically rehashes the bear case over and over. John Markham, Marketwatch columnist, has been bullish for a while and basically encapsulates our thesis. Lots of issues still exist such as the potential increases in capital gains taxes, sovereign debt, and so many other issues. Regardless though, the majority of investors remain rather bearish via pumping money into corporate debt. Almost ironic that after a debt bubble people would be so willing to lend money to debtors. His points about the SP500 hitting 3,000 are very sound and logical though rejected by just about anybody. After a lost decade in stocks, everybody should be pouring money into equities but instead they are racing into bonds at historically low rates. What is the odds of a 2nd lost decade in stocks? Oddly most people would've been more comfortable investing in stocks in 2000 before the bubble burst then in 2009 when the market h...

Rallying on Disbelief

An unusual bullish clip from Tech Ticker. They typically parade out numerous skeptics of the market rally. It is precisely this kind of skepticism that makes Bernie Schaeffer, chairman of Schaeffer's Investment Research , believe the rally still has further to go. Bernie has several points that have backed our belief that the market will continue to rally. Namely, money on the sidelines still aren't moving into cash and investment experts remain negative. His main points for the market moving up from here: The Dumb Money: Through October, equity mutual funds had net outflows of $1.9 billion year to date while bond funds had inflows of about $312 billion, according to the ICI . Furthermore, there's been about $10 billion of inflows into inverse funds that short the market, Schaeffer notes. "It not even that money is not coming off the sidelines - [investors are] betting against the market." Magazine Indicators: In 1982, a Business Week cover declared "The D...