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Trulieve Cannabis: Government May Finally Come To The Rescue

  Trulieve Cannabis stock soared 62% following the potential rescheduling of cannabis from a Schedule 1 controlled substance to a Schedule 3 drug. If cannabis is reclassified, Trulieve and other MSOs could potentially drop the 280E taxes and uplist to U.S. stock exchanges. Trulieve Cannabis could see a surge in free cash flow levels, greatly enhancing its capital position. TCNNF stock is cheap at only 3x the current adjusted EBITDA. As with most cannabis stocks,  Trulieve Cannabis  ( OTCQX:TCNNF ) was struggling heading into the end of August. The cannabis multi-state operator (MSO), mostly focused on Florida, faced tough business conditions due to the competitive threats in their main medical cannabis market  but the stock soared 62% following the potential for the re-scheduling of cannabis. My i nvestment thesis  remains Bullish on the stock, even after the big rally the last 2 days. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentio...

Canopy Growth: Downward Spiral

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  Canopy Growth Corporation remains in a downward spiral as revenues plunge causing the Canadian cannabis company to start another restructuring. The company reported another horrible adjusted EBITDA loss. The stock is expensive compared to the cannabis space and should be sold at all price levels. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   The Canadian cannabis space continues to destroy shareholder wealth with the horrible results from industry leader  Canopy Growth Corporation  ( NASDAQ: CGC ). The company appears to have completely abandoned past plans and embarked on a  full restructuring with the Canadian business after years of destroying shareholder wealth. My  investment thesis  remains ultra Bearish on CGC stock until all restructurings end and the business returns to growth. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Plea...

HEXO: Sell Into Big Rally (Rating Downgrade)

HEXO has seen a massive rally this year following the stock price collapsing in December during a reverse split. The Canadian cannabis company has cut the adjusted EBITDA losses, but the company faces deteriorating sales due to the reduced spending levels. The stock has a minimal market value of $70 million, but the large convertible debt level makes the stock a Sell into the rally. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   HEXO  ( NASDAQ: HEXO ) has been on a hot streak since the stock collapsed following a reverse split in December. The Canadian cannabis company has substantially cut costs leading to a major dip in revenues in the last few quarters. My  investment thesis  is Bearish on the stock with a questionable path forward following a major restructuring. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for mor...

Curaleaf: Tough Quarter, But Help Is On The Way

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Update - Dec. 19 The market remains absurd at the lows. $ CURLF  and other $ MSOS  weren't priced for the SAFE approval and don't even need the bill. People selling don't know what they are doing. -A long-shot attempt by lawmakers to get the SAFE Banking Act passed by including it in the omnibus spending bill has failed, Marijuana Moment reported. -Most of the major multi-state operators fell by double digits late in Monday's trading session when the news broke. -While the legislation could still pass as a stand-alone bill in the lame duck session, with only a couple of weeks until the new Congress is sworn in, that prospect is highly unlikely. -There is hope that the legislation will have legs in 2023. Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), the incoming chair of the House Committee, recently told Punchbowl News that while he is opposed to the legislation, he has "pledged to have an open process" in discussing it. Update - Dec. 16 Schumer continues working on  SAFE+ a...

Trulieve Cannabis: Relative Safety

  Trulieve Cannabis trades at multi-year lows near $10. The MSO offers substantial upside on any federal legalization, but the large MSO provides relative safety in the sector. The stock is cheap trading at only 4x forward EBITDA targets. As signs start pointing to some version of the SAFE Banking Act getting approval later this year, investors need to start positioning in U.S. cannabis companies set to benefit from access to the banking system and uplisting  to major stock exchanges.  Trulieve Cannabis  ( OTCQX:TCNNF ) is one of the safer options to play federal legalization while protected in a scenario where legalization again fails to obtain approval. My  investment thesis  remains Bullish on the multi-state operators (MSOs) set to benefit the most from changes to the cannabis rules at the federal level. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  

Tilray Brands: Not A Good U.S. Legalization Play

Tilray Brands fell after reporting another weak quarter for the period ending in August. The Canadian cannabis stock had rallied on hopes the U.S. would finally legalized weed. The stock isn't the best way to play U.S. legalization with a whole host of smaller U.S. MSOs the ones likely to see the biggest gains. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »     Tilray Brands  ( NASDAQ: TLRY ) has been one of the most loved cannabis stocks, yet the company hasn't produced any results warranting the love. The Canadian LP reported another weak quarter following a rally on the  marijuana reforms announced by President Biden. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on the stock, as investors continue to rush into the stock on unwarranted hype on U.S. legalization hopes. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer pa...

Curaleaf: Legalization Not Needed

  Senate Democrats finally introduce a cannabis bill with the potential for approval. Curaleaf continues poised to benefit from recreational cannabis legalization in the tri-state area adding ~$10 billion in additional revenues to the market. The stock remains cheap at just 8x conservative '23 adjusted EBITDA targets. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   The Senate Democrats finally releasing a bill gives some slim hopes of Federal legislation on cannabis.  Curaleaf Holdings  ( OTCPK:CURLF ) stands to benefit from such legislation while still holding the wild card of significant growth from Northeast  markets without Federal approval. My  investment thesis  remains ultra bullish on the stock after the inexplicable dip to $5 recently. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more det...

WM Technology: Back On A Strong Track

  WM Tech. reported a strong Q1 and forecast solid 30% growth for the year. The company continues to invest in building a robust technology platform for cannabis commerce. The stock has a forward EV/S multiple of 2x '23 sales targets. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.    Learn More » While a lot of SPACs have failed to meet financial goals, the market continues to overlook businesses with strong growth potential such as  WM Technology  ( NASDAQ: MAPS ). The cannabis technology provider and marketplace hasn't  always met financial targets, but the owner of Weedmaps is still growing at a 30% clip. My  investment thesis  remains Bullish on the stock trading near the lows below $6. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Tilray: Keeping Competition Alive

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Tilray formed a strategic alliance with HEXO in an odd move to help keep a top Canadian cannabis competitor alive. HEXO just reported another weak quarter where revenues missed expectations, but the company did cut the EBITDA losses. The stock remains far too expensive trading at over 10x actual cannabis sales while the competition in Canada remains fierce. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » The biggest issue with the Canadian cannabis market has been too much cultivation leading to oversupply. The new  Tilray Brands  ( NASDAQ: TLRY ) has attempted to consolidate the industry with the acquisition of Aphria, but the sector continues to struggle as much as prior. The  new deal  to help keep  HEXO  ( HEXO ) in business keeps our  investment thesis  Bearish on Tilray Brands. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position m...

Tilray: Numbers Keep Getting Worse

  Tilray reported another quarter of highly disappointing results, yet the stock again rallied initially on the numbers. The Canadian cannabis company missed analyst revenue targets by ~10%. The stock remains far too expensive at over 12x key cannabis and beverage revenues. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » Tilray  ( TLRY ) jumped on FQ2'22 results that somehow impressed the market. The cannabis L.P. actually reported declining cannabis revenues and a meager EBITDA profit after ignoring certain costs that are starting to recur. My  investment thesis  remains negative on the Canadian cannabis stock, as the company fails to grow cannabis revenues. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

HEXO Q1 Earnings: Not A Great Path Forward

  HEXO reported weak FQ1 results for the period ending Oct. 31. The addition of the businesses of Redecan and 48North didn't improve the financials or move the company any closer to being cash flow positive. The stock isn't touchable with the senior debt overhang and another restructuring in the works. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.    Learn More » As with most consolidations in the Canadian cannabis space, the HEXO ( HEXO ) plan failed miserably. The LP acquired three separate businesses and cratered their stock in the process. My  investment thesis  remains Neutral on the stock following the collapse below $1 and too much uncertainty surrounding the business. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

WM Technology: Illicit Market Dilemma

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  WM Technology posted dismal results for the 3Q of 2021. The company has a promising cannabis marketplace and SaaS business too, focused on the California market impacted by illicit sales. The stock is appealing at $8 due to long-term 30% growth rates, but investors should watch from the sidelines until the stock and business stabilize. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » The U.S. cannabis space has had a very tough few months and  WM Technology  ( MAPS ) now leads the pack with disappointing shareholders. The company was surprisingly hit by reduced demand in California due to a surge in the illicit market. My  investment thesis  remains Bullish on the stock over the long term, but WM Technology needs to find a bottom before shareholders buy more shares. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disc...

Flora Growth: Cheap Cannabis Appeal

  Flora Growth promises a long-term growth story supplying the world with low-cost cannabis cultivation. The company has reported minimal revenues so far following an IPO in May and is only now ramping up the business. The stock is difficult to buy until the Flora Growth provides more meaningful financials for analysis. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » The biggest problem with the Canadian cannabis push to supply the global cannabis market is a company like  Flora Growth  ( FLGC ). The Colombian cannabis cultivator will always have a cost advantage over developed markets, but the company is still early in the global cannabis export opportunity. My investment thesis is more Neutral on the stock until the business grows into the current valuation. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for m...

Curaleaf: Big Cannabis

  Curaleaf is forecast to report a massive Q3'21 with adjusted EBITDA profits topping $100 million for the first time. The company has up to 5 Northeast states opening up recreational cannabis sales by 2023, adding at least $11 billion to the market opportunity. The average analyst price target predicts 125% upside in the stock. The stock only trades at only 12x '22 base EBITDA targets. Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.  Learn More » As the U.S. MSOs (multi-state operators) continue to slump, the market needs to remember these companies are the true market leaders.  Curaleaf  ( OTCPK:CURLF ) is looking towards some massive quarters down the road and the market will eventually catch on. My  investment thesis  remains Bullish on this "Big Cannabis" play. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer p...

Canopy Growth: Cracking The Piggy Bank Again

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  Canopy Growth makes another investment to enter the U.S. THC market when federally permissible. Wana Brands doesn't have a dominant market position in edibles to justify an aggressive move. The Canadian cannabis company will no longer have a net cash position following this deal and another quarter of operating losses. Even down at the lows, the stock still trades at a very expensive P/S multiple of 10x FY22 sales targets. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » The Canadian cannabis LPs have consistently overspent on acquisitions and facilities to build empires. The latest deal by  Canopy Growth  ( CGC ) repeats on this history of aggressively attempting to buy growth when patience is needed. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on the stock as the company makes another upfront payment to enter the U.S. market. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. ...