Out Fox The $treet

Upstart Holdings, Inc. experienced a disappointing quarter, with AI model errors and analyst mistakes contributing to weak results and a significant stock decline. The AI lending platform misinterpreted macroeconomic signals, reducing loan approvals and missing revenue estimates despite strong demand and industry peers performing well. UPST stock now trades at a low valuation, around 4x 2026 sales and 16x 2026 EPS targets, making it attractive for value-oriented investors despite execution concerns. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Despite a good market,  Upstart Holdings, Inc.  ( UPST ) had a very disappointing quarter. The AI lending platform trades at the lows as the company was both hit by an analyst error and internal  mistakes. My  investment thesis  is Bullish on the the stock due to falling over 50% in the last few months, not necessari...

Updated - Oct. 2, 2025 Upstart might have some support here around $50 after BTIG caused the crash from $60 based on faulty delinquency data . The stock hasn't actually rallied on this news suggesting the negative momentum could keep Upstart under pressure.  Update - Sept. 24, 2025 Despite the rate cute, Upstart is trading down at recent lows. If the stock breaks $60 tomorrow, watch out below.  Original article posted on Aug. 6 Upstart reported a strong Q2 due to a big boost in loan conversions, but questions remain about sustainability and lack of consistent volume growth. The AI lending platforms expansion into auto and home loans is promising, but funding partners are lacking. The stock trades at 35x 2026 EPS targets, making Upstart expensive for uncertain funding growth. I remain Neutral on Upstart; consider buying on weakness or a breakout above $80 only if supported by rate cuts or major funding news. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The...

Update - May 6, 2025 The fintech has slipped to $50 despite a big quarter likely due to not hiking guidance.  Q1 GAAP EPS of -$0.03  beats by $0.16 . Revenue of $213.37M (+66.7% YoY)   beats by $12.11M . Upstart signed a forward-flow agreement for $1.2 billion with Fortress Investment Group. The main issue with numbers is likely guidance just generally matching current estimates.  Q2 Revenues of $225 million vs. consensus at $226 million 2025 Revenues at $1.01 billion vs. consensus at $1.01 billion.  The stock dips to a $4 billion market cap at the $42 after-hours price, or 4x sales targets. Upstart just traded down below $40, so the stock likely bounces at this level.  Update - Apr. 5, 2025 Upstart has entered the buy zone on the dip to nearly $30. The AI lending stock has just been crushed after rallying to $90. The company will have to report a serious pullback to lending to warrant this dip.  Original article posted on Mar. 30 Upstart Holdings...

Update - Feb. 12, 2025 Upstart with a monster quarter, the stock probably heads to $100.  -Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.26 beats by $0.30. -Revenue of $218.96M (+56.1% Y/Y) beats by $37.04M. -Transaction Volume and Conversion Rate: 245,663 loans were originated, totaling $2.1 billion, up 68% YoY and up 33% QoQ. Our Conversion Rate was 19.3%, up from 11.6% in Q4 2023. Original article posted on Jan. 07 Upstart Holdings saw a surge to $80 due to positive earnings but remains overvalued at $60 despite higher loan demand from Fed rate cuts. The AI lending platform's expansion into secured auto loans and HELOCs hasn't yielded significant growth in a huge disappointment, and the company is still struggling to turn a profit. UPST stock trades at 8x forward sales, limiting the attractiveness of Upstart. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » After urging investors to sell into strengt...

Update - July 25, 2023 The AI rage is full speed ahead with Upstart during the last month. This doesn't look like a peak due to the BTIG upgrade, but a shareholder should be looking for an exit point.  Original article posted on May 11.  Upstart made a huge step in rebounding from the downward spiral the lending platform had been going on over a year. The fintech announced committed funding of $2+ billion crucial to a turnaround, but the company didn't provide any details. UPST stock is reasonably valued here at 3.2x '23 sales estimates that require considerable 2H growth to hit targets. Upstart Holdings  ( NASDAQ: UPST ) signaled a key shift in their AI lending marketplace, making the business model far more appealing. The big question now is the details on the new committed lending partners, but at least the  fintech has ended the downward spiral. My  investment thesis  is more Neutral on the stock following the big rally off the lows. Read the ...

  Upstart reported another weak quarter in Q4 2022, and in particular guided to collapsing loan origination demand in Q1 2023. The fintech doesn't appear any closer to solving the committed capital issues, though this could provide a stock boost on the next up cycle. Upstart Holdings stock is expensive compared to fintech lending peers despite reporting large losses. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Just a couple of weeks back,  Upstart Holdings, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: UPST ) announced plans to  lay off ~20% of their workforce  in a sign of how weak 2023 had started off. The fintech continues to  operate a flawed AI-driven lending platform very susceptible to cyclical lending practices. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on UPST stock despite Upstart trading near the lows, though the stock could become a good trading vehicle as the Fed moves to pause ra...