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Showing posts from September, 2014

IB Net Payout Yields Model

American Airlines Group: Fuel and Taxes

Summary American Airlines to benefit from reduced fuel costs and consumption. American Airlines won't face income tax payments until 2016, at the current income level. The stock is extremely cheap with the above tailwinds helping offset any global slowdown concerns. Typically people focus on two certainties in life: death and taxes. For an airline like American Airlines Group (NASDAQ: AAL ) , the certainties are fuel and taxes. Fuel accounts for the largest expense line for airlines. The ability to lower fuel consumption or the cost per gallon will have a material impact to the bottom line. For taxes, the airlines are entering a new era of dealing with income taxes after decades of loses that eliminated the need to pay the government. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Long AAL. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Lessons Learned From The Yahoo Saga

Summary Alibaba surging to more than $93 on the first trading day provides substantial gains for Yahoo. Solid earnings should've kept investors owning Yahoo during the lean years for the stock. The inability to turn operations around probably caps the stock gains from here with the Alibaba gains captured. With the recent Alibaba (NYSE: BABA ) IPO providing riches for Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO ) , it's worth taking the time to discuss the lessons learned from the stock over the last decade. Though the stock has surged since the end of 2012, most long-term shareholders haven't seen any real gains with the stock, only now flat with levels reached back in 2006. In reality, a lot of investors probably dumped the stock despite knowing the potential gains in the Alibaba investments. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Staying Invested In Zynga

Summary New mobile game releases continue to struggle. Assets including cash prevent significant downside risks. Results from other mobile games continue to suggest that brands and franchises have an inside tract to success.  While smaller mobile game rival Glu Mobile (NASDAQ: GLUU ) continues producing daily download stars, Zynga (NASDAQ: ZNGA ) can't seem to catch a break. The company recently released a game into a new genre and updated a long-term winner with limited success on the daily charts.   Read the full article at Seeking Alpha.   Disclosure: Long ZNGA, GLUU. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.

Top 10 Net Payout Yield Stocks For September 2014

Summary Top net payout yield stocks outperformed the market in August. The top ten net payout yield stocks average 12.6% yields to start August. CF Industries and Illinois Tool Works jumped to the top of the list with massive stock buybacks.  This article is a continuation of a monthly series highlighting the top net payout yield (NYSE: NPY ) stocks that was started back in June, 2012 (see article ) and explained in August, 2012 (see article ). The series highlights the best stocks for the upcoming month. Please review the original articles for more information on the NPY concept. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Long CTL, KSS, NLY, NOC, SDRL, TRV, WLP. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.

CenturyLink: Riding Buybacks And Video Customers Higher

Summary CenturyLink continues growing high-speed Internet and video customers. The company is following the path of DirecTV with strong buybacks. Stock remains attractive with a net payout yield of 10%.  The recent agreement by AT&T (NYSE: T ) to purchase DirecTV (NASDAQ: DTV ) for nearly $50 billion highlights a couple of trends that investors can utilize with other stocks. The obvious trend is that video customers are in high demand these days. The not so obvious trend is that stock buybacks are once again proven to be an effective tool of value creation for shareholders.  Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Long CTL, DTV.  Please review the disclaimer page for details.

Frontier Communications: Capital Structure Doesn't Make Sense

Summary Frontier Communications has a capital structure too focused on maintaining a historical dividend. High debt load causes interest expense to hit operating income. Stock is reasonably valued but the large stock gains leave limited upside from these levels.  Reviewing the recent results of Frontier Communications (NASDAQ: FTR ) and the capital structure just doesn't make sense. Sure the local communications provider has stable revenues and cash flows that provide a level of opportunity, it doesn't make any sense for the company to continue paying lofty dividends while under a large debt burden. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.

Update: Delta Air Lines' August '14 Traffic Report

Summary Delta released disappointing August traffic numbers. Stock remains a strong buy. The original investment thesis anticipated hiccups from Russia and Ebola. Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL ) plunged on Wednesday following the release of traffic and operational numbers for August. While the numbers were at the low-end of previous guidance, the market should've already adjusted for an expected impact from the ongoing hostilities in Ukraine and the Ebola outbreak in Africa. With the expected headwinds and a stock trading sideways during the strong summer travel season, the sell-off suggests the market over reacted. Read the full update here . Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Sears Holdings: Cost Burdens Weigh On The Stock

Summary Another quarter, another disappointment from Sears Holdings. Cost pressures drove losses higher. Some silver linings existed in the details of the Q2 numbers that provide opportunities for the future. Whether good or not, Sears Holdings (NASDAQ: SHLD ) finally completed a quarter where revenue wasn't the real issue at the retailer. Sure the company saw a substantial decline in sales, but the majority of that decline came from shuttering stores and spinning off Lands' End (NASDAQ: LE ) . Most of the headlines from the media focused on the declining revenue trends and not the real issue which is duplicate costs for the online and promotional strategies to transform the retailer. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Long SHLD. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Seadrill: Riding The Long-Term Wave

Summary Jack-up market fears overblown. Consistent dividend increases provide for stable income. Seadrill investors should sit back and enjoy the large dividend while waiting on capital gains. For a market driven by assets that last over 30 years, the offshore drilling segment of the stock market is sometimes extremely focused on the short-term. Instead of focusing on the day-to-day operations and day rate cycle, investors should focus on the age of the fleet and the ability of management to adapt. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Long AAPL. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Zoes Kitchen: Son Of Chipotle?

Guess this was missed from a few weeks back, but Cramer did an interesting analysis of Zoes Kitchen (ZOES) compared to Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) back when it went public. Agree with Cramer that Chipotle will never be matched, but if anybody has a chance of reaching half the size of Chipotle it would be Zoes that grew revenue 54% during Q2. Its worth watching for those interested in the concept. With roughly 130 stores, Zoes has a long runway to hit what is probably a floor of 1,600 units. Disclosure: Long ZOES. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.