Out Fox The $treet

  Apple Inc. is quickly working on an AI chat product to compete in the suddenly hot generative AI category. The tech giant is now playing catch-up against other tech giants in several key categories like AI chat and AR/VR devices. Apple stock is incredibly expensive at 32x FY23 EPS targets even as Apple continues falling beyond in AI. A constant negative thesis with   Apple Inc.  ( NASDAQ: AAPL ) these days is that it is a business behind on new product development. The latest news of the tech giant entering the generative artificial intelligence ("AI") race appears to be another  sign of Apple being behind the leaders in another product category. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on the stock while trading near all-time highs. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

  Apple has now fallen over $25 since the dead money call over 7 months ago. The tech giant continues to see key products pushed out with the 2nd-generation AR/VR models potentially delayed until 1H'25. The stock is still expensive at nearly 20x FY26 EPS targets. About 7 months ago, our view was that  Apple  ( NASDAQ: AAPL ) was  dead money  for at least 4 years. The stock was at $166 when the article was published and now trades at $140, so far living  up to the dead money theory. My  investment thesis  still predicts the tech giant won't see any upside until at least FY26 due to the constant push out of key new products. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

  Apple trades at a premium valuation in the tech sector, but Alphabet is forecasted to far exceed the growth rates of Apple. Alphabet has the potential to out-innovate Apple in the key AV and AR/VR device segments, where Apple has the bigger hype. Due to innovation dynamics, growth, and valuation, Alphabet is poised to rally in a bull market while Apple could collapse in further market weakness rewarding a short position. The pair trade pays off because the opposite investment should remain flat in both scenarios. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   One of the better pair trades to execute right now is going long  Alphabet  ( NASDAQ: GOOG ) ( NASDAQ: GOOGL ) and short  Apple  ( NASDAQ: AAPL ). Both companies fall into the FAANG group of  giant tech stocks out of favor in the current market, but Apple remains far too beloved in comparison to Alphabet. Not to ment...

  DocuSign shocked the market back in December with a major warning for FQ4'22. The stock collapse has the CEO loading up on shares while ARK Invest has aggressively sold their much larger position. The company is back on a trend towards sustainable 25% growth making the stock valuation more appealing here at 10x forward sales. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » While most of the high flying tech stocks have collapsed due to sales trends decelerating,  DocuSign  ( DOCU ) actually plunged on a massive guide down. The end result has been the CEO loading up on shares for the long term and an influential ETF dumping shares. My  investment thesis  is now Neutral on the stock until sales trends normalize. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.   Update - Jan. 24 Possibly not the lows in $DOCU ye...

  Apple continues to race towards $200 as multiple analysts hike price targets despite limited boosts to projected growth over the next couple of years. The average price target on Apple actually remains below the current stock price. The narrowing market breadth due in large part to Apple will lead to a larger market dip. The stock shouldn't trade at 35x forward EPS estimates despite all of the recent analyst projections. Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.  Learn More » Day after day, analysts attempt to one up each other with higher price targets for  Apple  ( AAPL ). The tech giant already trades at all-time highs with a near peak forward P/E multiple despite the desire by analysts to suddenly hike price targets. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on the stock at all-time highs while growth rates are set to cool. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha....

  Ambarella reported a solid FQ3'21 quarter with revenues growing 64%. The company increased the estimated 6-year automotive revenue funnel to $1.8 billion. Investors should wait for the next 20% dip with the stock trading at 20x FY23 revenues and only forecast to grow at a 20% clip. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » Ambarella  ( AMBA ) shareholders have seen the stock surge in the last few months as the company has signed up several automotive chip deals. The stock was attractive on the last dip into the $80s, but Wall Street has again gotten too excited about the future of their computer vision chips. My  investment thesis  is again Bearish on the stock near $200 until the next major dip. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - Jan. 25 The predicted dip has occurred. ...

Apple warned on FQ2 revenues missing estimates due to coronavirus impact. Analysts remain very bullish on the company's prospects long term. The stock only trades $8 away from all-time highs. The stock isn't a buy until more realistic expectations emerge for the COVID-19 revenues impact. In no real surprise,  Apple  ( AAPL )  warned on revenue estimates  for the current quarter only about three weeks since the company provided  robust expectations  for FQ2 despite some fears on the coronavirus. My  previous research  had warned the stock wasn't appealing in the $320 range due to low yields and the virus issue in China and this warning reinforces this thesis. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long AAPL. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Alphabet missed Q4 revenue estimates by $790 million. The tech giant grew revenue at a 19% rate at constant currency. My price target remains $1,700 based on an EV/E of 20x '21 EPS estimates of $76. Alphabet  (NASDAQ: GOOG ) (NASDAQ: GOOGL ) appeared headed towards our  $1,700 price target  until the company disappointed the market with Q4 reported revenue growth of only 17%. The digital ad giant generates volatile revenue growth making the stock a buy anytime the Alphabet dips despite constant currency growth at 20% annual growth rates. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

AMD topped the S&P 500 with a nearly 150% gain in 2019 after leading the index in 2018. Investors shouldn't bet on a three-peat performance, but the stock has the possibility for another strong year. My 2020 EPS estimate remains $10 billion revenues, $1.50 EPS plus a longer term $3+ EPS target. One of my  favorite picks  in 2018 and 2019 ended on a strong note last year. The prospects of  Advanced Micro Devices  (NASDAQ: AMD ) repeating the strong gain a third year wouldn't appear high, especially topping the S&P 500 for a third consecutive year. After all,  Nvidia  (NASDAQ: NVDA ) followed huge gains in 2016 and 2017 with a down 2018. Investors shouldn't bet heavily on a three-peat with AMD, but the stock remains poised for a strong run in the '20s decade. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  

CrowdStrike dipped following strong quarterly results, as the stock is still too expensive at over 17x FY21 sales. The looming venture fund sales will cap stock gains in the short term. Investors need to assume the stock breaches recent lows and touch the IPO price. When a company is worth more than 10x forward sales, execution has to be flawless for the stock to rally. In the case of  CrowdStrike Holdings  (NASDAQ: CRWD ), a stock trading closer to 20x forward sales has to virtually print money to reward shareholders. For this reason, my  investment thesis  remains very negative on this cybersecurity stock despite trading near the lows with the next strike of lockup expiration looming. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Slack rallied despite confirmation of decelerating revenue trends. Microsoft appears to be stealing users at the margin. A valuation of 8x FY22 revenues places the stock at only $17.50. Despite  disappointing guidance ,  Slack Technologies  ( WORK ) rallied back on the day following earnings. The stock still trades near the lows following a hot IPO earlier this year as the market originally priced the collaboration service at irrational levels. The bounce places the stock in a position to rally off the lows, but the valuation remains far too rich to chase Slack here as my  long-term investment thesis  remains negative. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

After Slack (WORK) initially traded down following FQ3 results, the stock made an impressive turnaround on Thursday. Slack appears ready to rally after hit higher lows and closing at the highs. The stock valuation isn't that impressive here. My valuation places the stock at $17.50 at 8x FY22 revenue estimates. Paying far more and chasing this stock just doesn't appear wise. Disclosure: No position. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Ambarella beat FQ3 results, but the management team suggested revenues of $10 million were pulled forward. After years of spending, the company still can't disclose any needle moving CV chip deals with automotive customers. The stock is likely to retest $40 with revenue estimates for FY20 and FY21 declining. Despite all of the promises of computer vision chips and the huge stock rally this year,  Ambarella  (NASDAQ: AMBA ) still hasn't generated anywhere near the results and forward expectations warranting the stock rally this year. Investors should expect the stock to come back down to earth based on my  previous research  due to falling expectations for the next couple of years consistent with the past of this chip company and risks of basically operating in China. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Apple has a home run in the true wireless space with the AirPods Pro. The projections for selling 60 million units this year and close to 100 million units next year suddenly has AirPods as a $20 billion business. The tech giant should easily top my previous model for FY21 product revenues of $230 billion. My updated FY21 EPS estimate is $15.25, placing the stock at an EV of 15.9x those estimates. While  Apple  ( AAPL ) analysts focus on the surprise success of the iPhone 11, the market has generally ignored the massive success of the AirPods Pro. The tech giant continues to turn the wearables segment into a huge business, building another major growth avenue where competitors constantly fail. My  investment thesis  remains very bullish on the stock's path to $300 and beyond. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long AAPL. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Investors need to start considering a plan for AMD reaching $15 billion in annual sales. The company only needs to achieve a rather meager 25% market share in desktop, notebooks and server. The initial EPS target is $3 based on $15 billion in sales. The biggest negative against  Advanced Micro Devices  ( AMD ) is the general lack of current profits in relation to the stock price around $40. My  previous work  has focused investors on the drastically improving profit picture when the chip company gets to $10 billion in annual revenues. This article will focus on the next step of reaching $15 billion in annual revenues based on the company obtaining 25% market share in several key markets. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Update - December 5, 2019 If these analysts would've only listened all year long, they wouldn't be raising the price target after the fact. - Baird reiterates a Neutral rating on AMD (NASDAQ: AMD ) and rais...

Yelp remains in a tight trading range between $30 and $40. The consumer review site is back on a reasonable path to 10+% revenue growth. The company reduced the diluted share count by 14% over the last year. At 3.0x EV/20 sales estimates, Yelp would trade at nearly $53 or ~50% upside. Over the course of the year,  Yelp  ( YELP ) has been stuck in a range between $30 and $40 despite solid revenue growth mixed with large stock buybacks. These moves generate long-term value for shareholders whether the market realizes the benefits in the short term. My  investment thesis  remains very bullish on the stock with the chart suggesting a resolution to this tight trading range in the near term. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long YELP. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

LivePerson (LPSN) keeps rallying and appears set for a break higher after holding strong resistance in the $34 to $36 range. The stock has a market cap of $2.5 billion with a revenue goal of $290 million for this year and $350 million in 2020. LivePerson trades at 7x forward sales estimates. While not extremely expensive, the company needs some major catalyst for 20% revenue growth with large losses to make the stock worth owning here other than for a trade. Disclosure: No position. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

For the last year,  Yelp (YELP)  has been stuck in a range of $30 to $40. The stock is stuck in this range despite an extreme valuation position in the low $30s. The stock has an EV of only $2.0B with '20 revenue estimates of $1.1B and adjusted EBITDA in the $250 million range.  Investors should jump on this stock on another dip to $32 or a rip above the slopping downtrend right around $36 now.  Disclosure: Long YELP. Please read the disclaimer page for more details. 

Intel beat the Q3 revenue estimates due to luck from sales pulled forward and the immaterial nature of a competitor's ramp so far. Analysts are only forecasting the chip giant grows revenues in the 1% range while market share losses to AMD and Qualcomm will make this minimal target difficult. The stock trades at 12.3x forward EPS estimates while investors should expect estimate cuts. Intel  ( INTC ) has failed repeatedly over the last couple of years, yet the chip giant managed to  crush analyst estimates  in Q3. The company continues to prove it is better to be lucky than good as a prime competitor isn't able to ramp up supply of new chips fast enough to take meaningful market share in the near term. My  investment thesis  remains negative on the stock at the yearly highs despite the big quarterly beat. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  ...

AMD might've slightly missed Q3 revenue targets, but the company confirmed a long-term bullish trend. Investors should focus on the Q4 revenue growth of 48% and annual run rate of $8.4 billion. The stock only trades at 20x a 2020 EPS target of $1.75. A realistic 2021 EPS target of $2.50 would help the stock achieve a $50 price target next year using a 20x P/E multiple. The stock didn't initially rally following  Q3 results , but  Advanced Micro Devices  ( AMD ) generated the results and guidance reinforcing our  investment thesis  that the stock hasn't reached full value. While the market was focused on a slight revenue miss, AMD is poised to see revenues trend much higher over the next couple of years driving the stock price even higher. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  More commentary - OutFoxThe$treet - November 5 Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.