Out Fox The $treet

Quick name the retail brand that had the fastest growth rate in March? Bet not many people come up with kate spade. For March, kate had a 73% comp growth rate. Now don't officially quote the fastest part since I don't have access to any database of all brands around the world to confirm. Though seriously doubt that any major brand with over $50M in quarterly sales is growing that fast. The growth rate of kate spade is what makes the debate about the value of Liz Claiborne (LIZ) such a heated conversation. Too many investors look at the total numbers for the company reported this morning and it doesn't really impress. Technically Liz reported no growth and basically flat EBITDA. Why would such a company be worth $2B as suggested by numerous articles speculating on buyout offers? The answer is rather easy for anybody doing the research. Liz is a compilation of basically three brands. One that is surging, one that has turned around with good growth, and one that is still...

The WSJ reported around noon on Friday that Liz Claiborne (LIZ) has been in talks with private equity firms over a potential deal around $20 a share. Currently, it doesn't appear that any of the firms, such as KKR & Co (KKR) , Permira or Warburg Pincus LLC, find that price appealing. Not to mention that the Liz management has denied any interest in selling the company. The news was enough to send the stock soaring. It closed at $13.36, up nearly 13% at a new 52-week high. At $20, Liz would have a value around $2B. Is that an appealing price for long investors? First, lets look back to the recent transformation of the company. Back in October, I wrote an article about the transformation of the company. Just prior to that article, an investor could've bought Liz's stock in the $4s. Now the stock has tripled and a deal around $20 would've given an investor a 300% gain in less than six months. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: Long LIZ. Please r...

Liz Claiborne (LIZ) stock has rallied back 3.5% today from the warning after the close on Monday that led to a 13% drop yesterday. See our note from 2 days ago. Apparently at the ICR XCHANGE conference today, CEO presented some bullish 2012 comps news on the 3 brands. See below. He also reiterated that the majority of any decline in EBITDA expectations were due to a reduction in the expected cost cuts reached in 2012. kate spade:        10%+ Lucky Brands:  10% Juicy Couture:     5% Anybody following LIZ should browse through the presentation on the website. It provides some good summaries and expectations for the global expansion of the 3 brands. LIZ is almost like a biotech firm with 3 promising drugs that just got FDA approval. That's the feeling one gets when reading about these brands potential and how they were all held back with the restructuring in LIZ over the last 3-4 years. Each brand has the potential ...

After the close Liz Claiborne (LIZ) dropped over 11% on a release that the CFO would be leaving in March and the EBITDA numbers would be slightly lower than expected. Not surprising to see the stock dropped based on those data points, but it shouldn't shock anybody that LIZ has struggled to hit numbers. The stock doesn't trade based on them exceeding guidance so a slight guide down for next year really shouldn't hit the stock that much. More important is the fact that both the kate spade and Lucky brands had huge comp growth in November and December. In fact, kate spade had 39% comp store growth in December after 81% in November. That is the highest number I've seen. Brand November December * kate spade 81% 39% Lucky Brand 16% 21% Juicy Couture (7%) (5%) The stock will have a market cap around $850M at the open or just 6.4x the 2012 EBITDA estimate. As I'll continue to argue the stock trades at a level that doesn't suggest it wa...

Liz Claiborne (LIZ) surged 9% today on news that its new name would be Fifth & Pacific and trade under the symbol FNP beginning May 15, 2012. Wow, guess the problem all along was a name associated with an old business line. Guess people really liked the new name. My wife seemed to think it sounded like a hip California concept. She sure knows fashion better than me. "While it's difficult to replace an iconic name like Liz Claiborne, we believe that Fifth & Pacific Companies telegraphs who we are today – taking inspiration from New York and California , while describing our reach and our potential. From New York to Los Angeles to Shanghai and beyond, our intrinsically American brands have global appeal, serving customers worldwide with high quality and imaginative product," said Liz Claiborne Inc. Chief Executive Officer William L. McComb . The move was even more bizarre given that it was a known event in the works. [Read: Liz Claiborne Tran...

Interesting movement today in Liz Claiborne (LIZ). The company is still struggling to right size its business structure and return to a profitable company. The stock is up over 5% today around the $7.65 area which is close to the recent highs of $7.79 intraday and a closing high of $7.61 just on December 6th. A close at these levels and any follow through tomorrow could signal much higher prices. Not sure what the market is telling us other then the retail environment has been strong this holiday season. Interesting though is that Jones Group (JNY) is only up 1% today and its no where near recent highs in Oct around $21 which is much higher then the current sub $16. Maybe LIZ is in play and thats why the stock has been strong. Regardless the stock is possibly set up for a retest of the yearly highs in the $9-9.5 range reached back in late April. LIZ isn't thought to be well run so somebody apparently knows something to aggressively buy LIZ today. Its a cheap company if they can...

The Jones Group (JNY) reported higher costs today causing them to miss earnings estimates by a little over 10%. Consequently the stock has slumped over 20%. Considering the stock trades at a remarkably low 10x estimates the reaction in the market has been harsh. JNY blamed higher commodity costs such as cotton, wages from employees in Asia, and transportation costs from having to ship goods via air which naturally costs a lot more. The first 2 costs should have been built into analysts models and impact most of the industry. The higher transportation costs could very well be a JNY specific issue of not ordering enough inventory early.  The news has caused a huge drop in the stock of Liz Claiborne (LIZ) seen as a major competitor to JNY and other retailers owned in our portfolios including Sears Holdings (SHLD) and Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS).  It's too early to tell whether this is an industry issue or just bad management and modeling with JNY. Yesterday, Coach (COH) repor...

Lately Liz Claiborne (LIZ) has basically been left for dead, but today they forecasted a substantial improvement to 2H operating results and a solid profit in Q4. Even though the estimates for Q3 were already for a profit of $.04, the stock had traded down some 50% due to fears of LIZ slipping back into a spiral down. The news was very encouraging that LIZ has indeed finally turned the corner hence the stock is up nearly 15%. LIZ is a core holding in our Opportunistic and Growth portfolios since we think this franchise from includes Juicy Coture, Lucky Brands, and Kate Spade has huge upside potential once the restructuring finally produces results. Its been several years in the process now, but its apparently finally taking hold. Now with management back to focusing on managing the existing businesses we expect much better results and higher margins due to the elimination of weak business lines. Highlights from Reuters: * Q2 adj loss $0.19/shr vs est loss $0.46/shr * Sees adjuste...

Had sold a portion of Liz Claiborne (LIZ) back in early March as the stock got overheated. With it continuing to hold above the 20EMA, we used the early morning selloff to purchase our positions back in the Growth and Opportunistic portfolios. Unfortunately we missed the early drop and had to settle for $7.01. With support it will hopefully breakout of the double top around $7.5 on its next run. After all it traded around $20 pre-Lehman and the retail sector is heating up. Its time for the CEO to show some results. Saks (SKS) is approaching those levels and Coach (COH) has already zoomed past the pre-Lehman disaster.

Liz Claiborne (LIZ) has been a favorite stock of Stone Fox Capital for a while now. The stock was looking extended on the both the CCI and RSI measures. It was also approaching a double from October so we pruned 50% of our position in the Growth Portfolio at $7.26 leaving 2,000 shares. We'll be looking to buy that position back if the shares trade back to the 20EMA which is at 6.32 today. It's also discouraging that the stock is down in an up day. Another sign that it might need to rest before trying to breakout of the double top.

Liz Claiborne (LIZ) has been a favorite of Stone Fox Capital for a while now. Not sure we'd agree with the best upside pick, but possibly in the retail space. LIZ has a huge opportunity to rebound and the current retail climate is becoming more favorable. The WMT news shows signs of consumers starting to move back up the retail ladder. The 2011 EPS target of $.68 is very compelling with the stock in the $6s. Our target continues to be in the $12-15 range. A stronger retail environment will all of a sudden make that transformation much more successful. KeyBanc analyst says, "Despite a high operating risk profile, we think Liz Claiborne represents one of the best absolute upside opportunities in our coverage. The Company was beset by strategic missteps predating the current macroeconomic environment. Management has engaged in what we consider to be some of the most aggressive transformational activities we have ever seen in a company – divesting its eponymous Liz Claiborne brand...

Arne Alsin on RealMoney.com plugged Liz Claiborne (LIZ) in his Top 10 Stocks for 2010 predictions. He like Stone Fox Capital has been bullish on LIZ for the last several months. We thought back in October when LIZ broke above $7 that our target of over $10 and hopefully $15 might be reached sooner then expected but then LIZ swooned unexpectedly back into the $4s. Now LIZ is again breaking above the 200EMA and looks like a solid breakout stock for Q1 2010. Its over extended today, but we'd buy on any pullbacks to the 200EMA as the 20 & 50EMAs surpass the 200EMA back at $5.25. Liz Claiborne ( LIZ Quote ) : Nothing has changed since I recommended apparel maker Liz Claiborne earlier this year at $4.38 per share, and again on Sept. 16 at $6.27. With the stock trading at $4.37, it's an easy pick for the top 10 list. The company is worth far more than its current market cap of $380 million. By this time next year, the earnings power of this company will become evident. With $3 bi...

The Wall St Journal is reporting that the proposal to allow Tax Loss Carry Backs for 5 years is poised to be approved next week. It's been difficult to find information on this subject as we originally wrote about it on Wednesday [Tax Loss Proposal Gains Support] and hadn't seen any news about it until finding this article. The proposal is significant because it will provide immediate capital to a lot of struggling small cap stocks such as Liz Claiborne (LIZ) mentioned in the article. Basically any company losing money now would immediately be able to receive a portion of the taxes back that they've paid the last 5 years. The more they've lost the better. The article doesn't mention financials so we're still wondering what the impact will be on companies such as Regions Financial (RF) or Synovus Financial (SNV) that both received TARP money. If those companies were to get a refund, Congress might come under fire. If excluded, LIZ or Terex (TEX) would be our fa...

Options Edge from Schaffer Research put this out about the jump in Liz Claiborne (LIZ) today. I'd place some stock in the Mexx sale, but selling a prime brand like Juicy seems unlikely. Assuming they could get a good deal, reducing the debt would be ideal. Stock prices is still too low for the assets they own. Liz Claiborne, Inc. Liz Claiborne, Inc. ( LIZ : sentiment , chart , options ) rallied 8.6% on Tuesday as speculation swirled that the company is preparing to sell one of its brands. The apparel issue is struggling under a $718 million debt load, and the sale could help ease LIZ's burden. The company declined to comment to Dow Jones , but analyst Brian Sozzi of Wall Street Strategies said that such a move could help assuage investors' anxiety. "I continue to believe Mexx, with its new brand president having considerable retail experience and exposure internationally, would be first on the block," commented Sozzi, adding that Juicy Couture would b...