Out Fox The $treet

Update - March 21, 2025 Quantum Day didn't go very well. Rigetti CEO appeared to double-down on current quantum technology not being very useful.  Original article posted on Mar. 19 Rigetti Computing, Inc. reported weak Q4 results, with revenues dipping YoY. Nvidia's Quantum Day at the GTC 2025 event could temporarily boost Rigetti's stock based on quantum computing hype. Rigetti's CEO continues to emphasize limited commercial sales in the near future, relying heavily on government contracts and R&D milestones for now. Investors should consider cashing out if the stock surges due to the Nvidia event, as true commercialization is still 5 years away. The quantum computing space could see a major pop on any announcements coming out of the Quantum Day at the  Nvidia  ( NVDA ) GTC 2025 event this week.  Rigetti Computing, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: RGTI ) just  reported  weak Q4 results  and investors should hone in on the actual prospects of the quantum busi...

  Nvidia Corporation faces pressure due to DeepSeek's claims of cheaper AI model training, but efficient GPU usage could boost overall AI spending. DeepSeek's R1 model claims to outperform OpenAI at a fraction of the cost, though its actual GPU usage is under scrutiny. Nvidia's stock drop presents a buying opportunity, with AI demand likely to grow despite potential margin risks. The main stock risk is lower margins, but efficient AI models are unlikely to diminish Nvidia's long-term AI GPU growth story. Nvidia Corporation  ( NASDAQ: NVDA ) is getting crushed on news of a Chinese AI company figuring out how to reduce GPU costs to train AI models. The AI chip company traded at a rich valuation, and less demand for GPUs  could crush the sales growth and reduce the value of the stock. My  investment thesis  remains Bullish on the stock on any further dips, as more efficient GPU usage could only ramp up AI spending. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Dis...

Update - Aug. 30, 2023 Nvidia get easily pop to new highs on the big guide up to FQ3 revenues of $16 billion. Though, the big risk to longs is a potential double top setting up after the run to $500 today.    Original article published on Aug. 14 Nvidia Corporation hit our target price of $480 providing the opportune time to exit on momentum at a premium price. The company is facing an AI GPU chip shortage potentially limiting sales growth and pushing customers to seek cheaper alternatives from AMD. The stock still trades at a very expensive 17x FY25 sales that appear increasing difficult to meet, much less exceed. Out Fox The Street members get exclusive access to our real-world portfolios. See all of our investments  here »   Unfortunately, these articles can't be written fast enough, but  Nvidia Corporation  ( NASDAQ: NVDA ) hit our prior price target and rolled over the last few weeks. The stock jumped nearly 200 points on soaring AI GPU demand, but the...

AMD updated their long-term financial targets at Financial Analyst Day 2020 to levels supportive of higher stock prices. The company guided to >20% revenue growth and 25% operating margins eliminating a long-held investor view of limited profits. The conservative outlook is for 2023 revenues of $15.0 billion and 2024 revenues at $18.0 billion suggesting revenues doubling from 2020 levels. My long-term model has an $18.75 billion revenue target (25% market share) and a $3.72 EPS. On March 5,  Advanced Micro Devices  ( AMD ) held their  Financial Analyst Day for 2020 . Despite the DJIA dipping nearly 1,000 points on the day and the COVID-19 fears spreading around the globe, the management team stayed focused on the long term. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

AMD topped the S&P 500 with a nearly 150% gain in 2019 after leading the index in 2018. Investors shouldn't bet on a three-peat performance, but the stock has the possibility for another strong year. My 2020 EPS estimate remains $10 billion revenues, $1.50 EPS plus a longer term $3+ EPS target. One of my  favorite picks  in 2018 and 2019 ended on a strong note last year. The prospects of  Advanced Micro Devices  (NASDAQ: AMD ) repeating the strong gain a third year wouldn't appear high, especially topping the S&P 500 for a third consecutive year. After all,  Nvidia  (NASDAQ: NVDA ) followed huge gains in 2016 and 2017 with a down 2018. Investors shouldn't bet heavily on a three-peat with AMD, but the stock remains poised for a strong run in the '20s decade. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  

AMD isn't priced for perfection based on the Nvidia path. Investors tend to forget that AMD was priced for a financial disaster back in 2016. Nvidia has more normalized growth projections and still trades at 30x forward EPS estimates. My $15 billion revenue, $3 EPS plan would position the stock for substantial gains in the next few years inline with Nvidia from a few years ago. Due to the large rally in the stock of  Advanced Micro Devices  ( AMD ), investors consider the stock priced for perfection and pressured to meet lofty financial targets in 2020. The odd part is that  Nvidia  ( NVDA ) had a similar rally a few years ago and the stock traded at much higher peak valuation multiples than AMD is currently. The major separating fact is that AMD traded at distressed prices back in 2016 before these stocks rallied. My  investment thesis  remains very bullish on AMD due to the $15 billion sales plan. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha....

Investors need to start considering a plan for AMD reaching $15 billion in annual sales. The company only needs to achieve a rather meager 25% market share in desktop, notebooks and server. The initial EPS target is $3 based on $15 billion in sales. The biggest negative against  Advanced Micro Devices  ( AMD ) is the general lack of current profits in relation to the stock price around $40. My  previous work  has focused investors on the drastically improving profit picture when the chip company gets to $10 billion in annual revenues. This article will focus on the next step of reaching $15 billion in annual revenues based on the company obtaining 25% market share in several key markets. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Update - December 5, 2019 If these analysts would've only listened all year long, they wouldn't be raising the price target after the fact. - Baird reiterates a Neutral rating on AMD (NASDAQ: AMD ) and rais...

AMD takes a hit from $30 despite a bullish analyst call with a $35 target. Most analysts continue to under estimate the gross margin upside for the chip company. The 2020 base case is the average analyst estimates for $8.25 billion in revenues and $1 EPS. The EPS upside is $2-plus based on higher margins from market share gains. The market continues to underestimate the margin improvements in the works at  Advanced Micro Devices  ( AMD ) that will drive substantial improvement in profits and hence profits per share. The shift to 7nm chips will lead the company to a technological position it hasn't held in comparison to  Intel ( INTC ) in a long time, allowing for better pricing scenarios and substantial margin improvements. At $28, AMD isn't the great deal the stock was at the end of 2018, but AMD still has more upside in 2019. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  More commentary - WhoTrades Disclosure: No position. Please review the discl...

Nvidia followed up the top S&P 500 gain in 2016 with an 81% gain in 2017. AMD is positioned to raise long-term financial targets. My 2020 estimate remains $10.0 billion revenues, $1.50 EPS making the stock cheap at $18. One of my favorite picks in 2018 faltered to end the year. By all accounts,   Advanced Micro Devices   ( AMD ) had a huge year, but some in the market view the year as a failure with questioned prospects going forward. The reality is that a secular shift presents AMD with the ability to repeat the biggest gain in the S&P 500 index again in 2019. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long AAPL. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.   

AMD has the capacity to surpass forecasted weak sales growth in Q3 and beyond. The chip company appears poised to make the jump to 40%-plus gross margins due to higher margins from EPYC. Look for the long-term EPS target to get hiked above the $0.75 estimate. After a stunning rally to $30, investors might be shocked to find out that  Advanced Micro Devices  ( AMD ) already is at the end of the growth phase, according to forecasts. As per my  previous research , the cyclical nature of the business should haunt the stock at these levels, but the business trends remain far too bullish to dump AMD and run away here. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Citron Research published a $20 price target on BlackBerry. The stock is already up significantly off the recent lows and trades at a market multiple for a growth company. BlackBerry has upside potential on momentum, but the stock lacks the multiple expansion of Nvidia. Citron Research published a  report  placing a $20 target on  BlackBerry (NASDAQ: BBRY ). The opinion was shaped on the back of the incredible gains of  Nvidia  (NASDAQ: NVDA ) as the market made a sea change rerating of the stock, based on limited revenue growth and the recent buyout of  Mobileye (NYSE: MBLY ) at a lofty valuation. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Nvidia hit a new high to start trading Wednesday to cap a remarkable run from the lows to start 2016. Despite the excitement over end market opportunities, most of the stock gains came from multiple expansion. The analyst community became too bullish allowing for a contrarian play by Citron Research to easily take down the stock. When a stock soars and analysts upgrade the price target, one has to question if the positive momentum is too much. Such the case incurred with  Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA ) the last couple of weeks. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position. Please review the disclosure page for more details. 

Nvidia rallied to new highs on strong earnings growth. The stock value is generally misunderstood by the market with the analyst focus on GAAP numbers that underestimate the earnings power of the company. The revenue shift toward growth areas sets Nvidia up for solid revenue growth and leaves the stock with a relatively cheap valuation. My  previous research  focused on how Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA ) was a relatively cheap stock when factoring in the non-GAAP numbers and the large cash balance. The graphics chip company has mostly avoided the tech wreck of late due to a focus on growing gaming,  datacenter  and automotive markets. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.   Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Please read the disclaimer page for more details.

Nvidia smashed FQ4 earnings on robust revenue growth. The market seems to understand the growth drivers, but the earnings story is misunderstood. The stock is a strong recommendation on any pullback going forward. After  warning investors  that upside was limited prior to the drop leading to a bottom in mid-February, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA ) is only now trading back at those levels after the rally following solid  FQ4 earnings . My previous thesis centered on a stock that had doubled in a little over a year despite limited revenue growth.  Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No positions mentioned. Please read the disclaimer page for more details.