IB Net Payout Yields Model

Stat of the Day: Consumer Confidence Snaps Back

According to the preliminary Michigan Surveys of Consumers, consumer expectations are at the highest level since Oct 2007. The consumer sentiment is at the highest levels since Sept 2008. That's pretty amazing considering the stock market was at 1,200 back in September and the housing and job markets have continued to plunge. Based on these numbers, I'd expect some more snap back in retail spending. For the first time in 20+ months, consumers actually see a brighter future. Now this doesn't always impact spending short term it ultimately will have an impact.

Surprising that the market is down so far today with rather upbeat news on the consumer front. Normally I'd not pay attention to this report because it doesn't always translate to consumer spending but expectations have reached a reflection point. When psychology turns it doesn't turn back that easily.

  • The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said its preliminary index of confidence for May rose to 67.9 from 65.1 in April.
  • This was above economists' median expectation of a reading of 67.0, according to a Reuters poll.
  • The index of consumer expectations jumped to 69.0 in early May, its highest since October 2007 and up from 63.1 in April.


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