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Showing posts from September, 2026

IB Net Payout Yields Model

Bloom Energy: Don't Buy Just For S&P 500 Bonus (Rating Upgrade)

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Update - Sept. 24, 2026 Any dip on the Oracle Project Jupiter dip is just a buying opportunity. The demand for on-site power isn't slowing down and Oracle still has plans to deploy up to 3 GW of fuel cells with Bloom Energy. -Bloom Energy ( BE ) shares fall 5.4% pre-market Thursday after Oracle ( ORCL ) sent the developer of its Project Jupiter data center site a notice citing force majeure, Bloomberg reported; the project is designed to be powered by Bloom Energy fuel cells. -Oracle, down 4.5% pre-market, reportedly is seeking to protect itself ​from potential cost increases related ‌to the New Mexico project in New Mexico by sending the notice to developer ​Blue Owl. -Oracle is aiming ​to delay payments if ⁠Project Jupiter fails to come online in 2028 as planned, rather than exiting ​as the ​main tenant, ⁠according to the report. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » ...

Rivian: Thank You, Demos!

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  Rivian Automotive is positioned for aggressive growth, as R2 production ramps and demo drives surge. Q3 demo drives are on pace to nearly double Q2, signaling strong demand and supporting a delivery ramp to over 20,000 vehicles. RIVN's 2026 delivery forecast is 65,000–70,000 vehicles, still only 30% of its Normal, IL, plant capacity, with further upside from the Georgia facility. With a $23B market cap and potential $31B+ sales target for current production plans, stars are aligning for RIVN's rapid revenue expansion, including autonomy and VW software deals. Rivian Automotive, Inc. ( RIVN ) has big expansion plans, but the company needs R2 sales to ramp dramatically over the prior versions to be successful. The biggest risk is demand drying up long before the  company reaches goals to 10x production in the next few years and the strong R2 demo drives is a very positive indication. My  investment thesis  is ultra Bullish on the EV manufacturer still trading near th...

Palo Alto Networks: Mismatched AI Cybersecurity Excitement

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Update - Sept. 2, 2026 Palo Alto Networks with the solid beat as expected. The stock just has nowhere to go at this valuation, leading to the 9% dip following earnings. The cybersecurity company forecast a FY27 EPS of only $4.175 for only around 9% growth while the stock still trades at 78.5x EPS targets. The numbers just don't support the big rally.  -FQ4 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.02 beats by $0.04. -Revenue of $3.41B (+34.3% Y/Y) beats by $60M. These FY27 guidance numbers appear very low. -Next-Generation Security ARR of $11.075 billion to $11.175 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 22% to 23%. -Remaining performance obligations of $25.2 billion to $25.4 billion, representing year-over-year growth of 19% to 20%.   Original article posted on Aug. 29 Palo Alto Networks trades near all-time highs, with the stock valuation far outpacing business fundamentals and organic growth trends. PANW's organic growth slowed to ~14% in the last quarter, while EPS growth is muted due to ...

USA Rare Earth: Progress Over Perfection

  USA Rare Earth is rapidly scaling a vertically integrated rare earths business, yet the market remains skeptical of its long-term profitability. The recent quarterly results weren't impressive, but the numbers aren't relevant; focus on operational milestones, customer pipeline, and magnet production ramp at Stillwater and future expansions. USAR's valuation appears compelling, targeting $1.85B adjusted EBITDA by 2030 and ~80% free cash flow conversion, with debt expected to be generally covered by 2030. The stock is cheap at about 3.5x adjusted EBITDA targets with dips down to the $15 range—great buying opportunities. USA Rare Earth, Inc. ( USAR ) is quickly building a rare earth powerhouse, but the stock market still isn't convinced of a profitable future. The company is early in the development process, leading to some confusion over financial  results. My  investment thesis  remains ultra bullish on the stock, especially back at the recent lows when the stock ma...