IB Net Payout Yields Model

Stat of the Day: Chicago PMI Unexpectedly Rises

The Chicago PMI came in at a surprisingly strong 60.6 in October well above the 57.6 expected by economists. While this was only slightly higher then the 60.4 in September, it showed a strong jump in new orders to 65. Production was off the chart at 69.8 showing deep strength in the report.

Market initially snapped back, but some slightly weak Michigan consumer sentiment data has weakened the market. Considering a strong September and October it wouldn't be surprising to see a sell the news scenario at the beginning of November. Though I'm slightly concerned that too many pundits are suggesting such a result. Looks like 1180 in the SP500 is crucial. Any breakdown would likely signal short term selling.

Long term though, any selloff in November will be a huge buying opportunity. The Nov - Apr period of a mid term election is historically off the chart bullish. Only concern is that it usually comes after a weak Sept - Oct period setting up the rally after the elections.

Chicago purchasers report strong, broad-based month-to-month acceleration this month. The Chicago index for October rose two tenths to 60.6, well above the break-even level of 50. New orders are especially strong, at 65.0 for a more than three point rise. Employment is also strong, up more than one point to 54.6 and reflecting robust production which jumped 5-1/2 points to 69.8. Delivery times slowed, input prices rose, and businesses in Chicago added to inventories -- all consistent with deep strength. This report points to solid plus 50 readings for next week's national purchasing reports from the Institute For Supply Management.


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