Out Fox The $treet

  Novavax, Inc. reported Q3 2023 numbers above consensus estimates based almost solely on grant revenue. The company cut guidance for 2023 revenues and even pushed out a large portion of those revenues to Q1 2024 due to weak COVID vaccine demand. The stock continues to decline as the company remains disconnected from the market demand for COVID vaccines. Novavax, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: NVAX ) continues to trend lower as the biotech still sounds somewhat disjointed from the market demand for COVID vaccines. Ironically, the company announced another cost reduction plan, a sure sign of the actual direction of vaccine demand  is much lower. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on NVAX stock, even at the multi-year lows near $6. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long UA. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Investing in a biotech goes far beyond whether or not the company can get key drugs approved. How the company finances the cash burning trials is very crucial to long-term valuation and that is where Novavax (NVAX) is crushing shareholders.

With Novavax (NVAX) , the company is always a few days away from issuing more stock and usually at not very opportune times. The small biotech just made such a move again. On December 31, Novavax filed to sell $100 million of shares at a 2% commission. As usual, the move made no sense with a cash balance that has to be in excess of $100 million and knowledge that the company was about to release positive Phase 2 data on NanoFlu.

Typically, a reverse merger is a sign of a company facing troubling finances, though I'll be the first person to tell investors that this isn't always the case. Each stock in the process of a reverse merger needs the merits of its individual case reviewed by an investor. In the case of Rite Aid (RAD) and Novavax (NVAX) ,  these reverse mergers are signs that these stocks face incredibly difficult times ahead and the stocks are likely headed even lower. Rite Aid got approval by shareholders for a reverse split that needs to happen by the end of June to cure NYSE requirements for a $1 listing. At $0.57, the stock would trade at $11.40 on a 1:20 split to take place on April 22. The problem is that Rite Aid continues to face more pressure from Amazon in the pharmacy space and stronger competitors that are already struggling. At a pric...

  Novavax has issued dire warnings to shareholders as the company continues to burn substantial amounts of cash. The small biotech continues to dilute shareholders via near-endless share issuances, and no guarantees exist that the company will have a successful 2023 vaccine update. Novavax stock is one to avoid, even after crashing below $7 on the dire warning. Anyone historically following  Novavax, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: NVAX ) could've predicted this ending for the biotech focusing on vaccines. The company has a history of promising new vaccines while constantly diluting shareholders over and over with new share issuance. The stock  soared to amazing heights on exuberance around the approved covid vaccine, but now the gig is up. My investment thesis is Bearish on Novavax, Inc. stock following statements from the company about substantial doubt of a going concern due to heavy losses and questionable covid vaccine demand. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disc...

Novavax (NVAX) is expected to provide data this week for the Phase 1/2 flu study. The only problem is that the results were originally expected by the end of 2017.

For a stock trading at $0.63, Novavax (NVAX) sure has a lot of bullish investors. According to sentiment on StockTwits, investors are still still 85% bullish on the stock.

Before the bell, Novavax (NVAX) released results on the latest Phase 3 test for RSV for infants that failed to meet desired results. The failure follows similar results with the RSV for older results a couple of years ago. The study failed to sufficiently separate from placebo as measured by the incidence of RSV lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) through 90 days of life, the primary endpoint. In the treatment group, the incidence of medically significant RSV LRTI was 39% (placebo incidence not provided). Other trial highlights provided in the presentation. The stock is being hammered down 67% to $0.69. Cowen slaps a $0.25 target on the stock has Novavax has again failed to get a drug approved while spending millions on drug testing. My long frustration with the company is that they constantly shift focus on vaccines without any results while burning cash left and right. The lack of partnerships for their promising vaccines has always been a telling story si...

  Novavax, Inc. bounced on hype while the prospects from the business continued to dim with the demand for Covid vaccines. The small biotech has major doubts about the financial picture of the company considering the massive operating expense structure built up to produce Covid vaccines. Novavax stock remains a Sell due to like further dilution ahead and no logical path to profits. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street.  Learn More »   Following a going concern proclamation from the company,  Novavax, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: NVAX ) had bounced over 50% of the lows to over $9. The biotech faces a problematic year as demand for Covid boosters dries up and the company has a  major mismatch with their current expense structure. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on the stock as investors await Q1 results in mid-May. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position men...

  Novavax, Inc. secured a lucrative deal with Sanofi, receiving potentially $1.2 billion in cash and future royalties for Covid vaccines. The deal significantly improved Novavax's financial position, but the stock has already rallied from $4 to $14, limiting potential upside. Novavax's future success hinges on the royalty revenue from the Sanofi deal in 2025, with limited ability to compete with Sanofi's commercialization capabilities. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » In a matter of months,  Novavax, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: NVAX ) went from a biotech with a questionable future to one flush with cash and a potentially huge royalty deal. Investors being too greedy and not alert were probably caught  on the wrong side of the trade. My  investment thesis  is more Neutral on the biotech due to the stock now trading at nearly $14, up from only $4. Read ...

Novavax ( NVAX ) surged as Wainwright slapped a $6 target on the $2 stock, but guess what happened to the small biotech stock.