Posts

IB Net Payout Yields Model

Ascend Wellness: Undiscovered Cannabis MSO

  Ascend Wellness remains an undiscovered cannabis MSO with very few followers on financial websites. The company has an attractive set of licenses including a deal to acquire the MedMen license in New York. The stock only trades at 8x '22 EBITDA targets despite estimates for revenues to double next year. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » The cannabis space is now full of 2nd tier MSOs (multi-state operators) ripe for acquisition targets. Another example is  Ascend Wellness Holdings  ( OTCQX:AAWH ) that went public quietly back earlier this year. My investment thesis is very Bullish on the stock, but more proven opportunities exist in the U.S. cannabis market. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details.  Update - Oct. 6 Good news for the NY license. -Meeting for the first ...

Roblox: Gravy Days Are Past

Image
  Roblox has recently reported a moderation in the growth trends from COVID-19 lockdowns. The business growing at a 20% clip in 2022 would be impressive on top of the tough comps, but the growth rate wouldn't impress shareholders. The stock is far too expensive at a $50 billion valuation for a more normal growth trend as revenues top $3 billion next year. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » As the August monthly metrics for  Roblox  ( RBLX ) highlighted, the gravy days for the business are over as the COVID-19 boost wanes. The stock still trades close to the all-time highs with a market valuation approaching $50 billion despite a return to more normalized growth rates. My investment thesis is Bearish on the stock while the company has a great long-term opportunity to grow their global platform eventually making the stock a buy. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha....

Nike: Holidays Are Toast

Image
  Nike reported strong results for FQ1'22, but the company guided to a dismal holiday season. The athletic apparel company cut the FY22 growth rates in half to only mid-single digits. Factories closed in Vietnam can't reopen in time to manufacture footwear or apparel capable of reaching North American markets prior to the holidays. The stock faces multiple compression along with flat EPS growth to where a 30x multiple (still aggressive) leads to a price target of only $107. Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate.  Learn More » The market was already over pricing the value of  Nike  ( NKE ) heading into their  FQ1'22 results  despite known supply chain issues with Vietnam factories closed due to COVID-19. Investors probably can't be blamed for looking past these issues after the athletic footwear company had soared past expectations in prior quarters. My  investmen...

United Airlines: Will Take Flight With Global Demand

Image
  The U.S. is set to reopen travel with the U.K. and the EU starting in November pending more details. Atlantic departures remain down 50% from 2019 levels providing some of the best upside to recapture 2019 traffic levels. Back in 2019, United Airlines had 43% of ASMs assigned to international travel. The stock is cheap as a reopening of Atlantic traffic is a big part in the airline recapturing the 2019 EPS levels of $12 in a few years. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » While air travel demand cooled off during August, the regulations restricting international travel are on the verge of being relaxed.  United Airlines Holdings  ( UAL ) led domestic carriers in international travel prior to the COVID-19 restrictions on flying outside of the domestic market. My  investment thesis  is very Bullish on the stock after a big sell off leading into a reopening of international travel for the v...

Pinterest: Perspective Matters

Image
  Pinterest continues to trade near the lows of 2021 as user questions mount with the tough comps from the COVID-19 shutdowns. The social media platform has grown revenues by 50% in the last year and should maintain solid revenue growth due to higher ARPUs. The stock isn't cheap at 10x EV/S multiple, but investors should buy the company on a market induced dip. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » The stock market can be a fickle place with a company valued based on the last quarterly results, not the normal growth rates of the business.  Pinterest  ( PINS ) is a prime example of a business that boomed during COVID-19 lockdowns and is now struggling with tough comps. My  investment thesis  is turning more Bullish on the stock after the excess valuations of early 2021. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: Long TWTR. Please review the disc...

Lilium: Future Of Regional Transportation

Lilium and Qell Acquisition completed the SPAC business combination last week. The SPAC was hit with 65% of SPAC shareholders redeeming shares, but the transaction still raised $584 million due to a large PIPE at $10. The stock is compelling below the $10 PIPE price for shareholders willing to ride the high volatility in the eVTOL space. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Out Fox The Street.  Learn More » The recent closing of the SPAC deal between  Lilium GmbH  ( LILM ) and Qell Acquisition Corp. enters another public company into the electric air mobility space. The company is unique in its focus on developing an all-electric jet targeted on regional transportation, as opposed to the air taxi focus of other competitors. My investment thesis is Neutral on the stock with the rally back to nearly $11, following the closure of the deal with other peer stocks trading below $10. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No...

Blade Air Mobility: Flying Higher Long Term

Image
Blade Air Mobility has average analyst price targets forecasting a nearly 70% upside in the stock. The company plans to become the leading air mobility platform with an asset-light model requiring limited capex spending. The stock trades below the SPAC and PIPE prices despite having a cash balance of $333 million and strong revenue growth. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our model portfolio.  Learn More » Prior to a bullish note by JPMorgan last week,  Blade Air Mobility  ( BLDE ) was the typical SPAC deal these days struggling to even trade above $10. The company has a promising future in the air mobility sector, but so many uncertainties exist from competition to the certification of future flying aircraft. My investment thesis is Bullish on the stock, especially once the excessive gains from last week roll back. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please ...