Roblox: Gravy Days Are Past

 

• Roblox has recently reported a moderation in the growth trends from COVID-19 lockdowns.
• The business growing at a 20% clip in 2022 would be impressive on top of the tough comps, but the growth rate wouldn't impress shareholders.
• The stock is far too expensive at a $50 billion valuation for a more normal growth trend as revenues top $3 billion next year.
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As the August monthly metrics for Roblox (RBLX) highlighted, the gravy days for the business are over as the COVID-19 boost wanes. The stock still trades close to the all-time highs with a market valuation approaching $50 billion despite a return to more normalized growth rates. My investment thesis is Bearish on the stock while the company has a great long-term opportunity to grow their global platform eventually making the stock a buy.

Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. 

Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Update - Oct. 28

Agree that Roblox is a better Metaverse bet with Facebook far too big for a new technology to move the needle. Though, Tao Value appears to have an ax to grind with Facebook as much as making the case on Roblox. 

• Tao Value revealed in a letter to investors that it has opened a position in Roblox (NYSE:RBLX), saying the gaming company has the ability to become "a new being for human society."
• The fund also blasted Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) and its founder Mark Zuckerberg for putting users and shareholders at risk by engaging in "blatant negligence" for ignoring internal data that showed that some of its policies had toxic consequences.
• Tao Value pointed to RBLX as a better player in the metaverse space, calling it "a good social platform" that "put stakeholders’ trust and security first."