IB Net Payout Yields Model

United Airlines: Soaring To New Heights

  • This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Out Fox The Street. Learn More » 

Update - March 13

Somehow United Airlines is down 5% to 6% in after hours after announcing '23 EPS is still on target to $10 to $12, yet the Q1 numbers will dip due to the pilot contract being signed in Q1, up from Q2. 

  • United Airlines Holdings (NASDAQ:UAL) shares slumped after the bell on Monday after providing a pessimistic outlook for the first quarter of 2023.
  • The company said that it now expects an adjusted loss per share between $0.60 and $1.00 in Q1
  • “The Company continues to see a strong demand environment and now expects first quarter 2023 total operating revenue to be up approximately 51% versus first quarter 2022, higher than the Company's initial approximately 50% expectation provided in January 2023,” the filing stated. “Higher capacity in the quarter is contributing to better top line revenue performance as the Company's operational reliability continues to lead the industry. Due to better completion rates, first quarter 2023 capacity is now expected to be up around 23% versus first quarter 2022, three points higher than the Company's previous expectations.”
  • The Company continues to expect a full year 2023 adjusted pre-tax margin4 of approximately 9% and full year adjusted diluted earnings per share1 of $10 to $12.

Original article posted on Jan. 18

  • United Airlines reported another strong quarter for December, easily smashing analyst estimates.
  • The legacy airline guided to 2023 EPS of $10 to $12, far above analyst estimates.
  • Domestic air travel spending remains below pre-COVID levels of GDP providing solid growth potential in 2023.
  • The stock is far too cheap with the profit machine being unleashed and industrial transport stocks trading at up to 3x the P/E multiple of United Airlines.
Despite knowing legacy airlines were posting near record holiday earnings, United Airlines (NASDAQ:UAL) only trades at approximately half of pre-COVID levels. The airline actually reported shockingly strong guidance for 2023. My investment thesis remains ultra bullish on

Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. 

Disclosure: Long UAL. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 


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