IB Net Payout Yields Model

Intrade Predicts 71% Chance of Republicans Taking the House

This naturally has huge implications to the stock market from now until the November mid-term elections. The market will continue to rally in whats suppose to be a typical weak Sept - Oct period if the odds remain above 70% of the Republicans taking the House of Representatives.

Intrade.com is the website where people bet their own money on outcomes such as elections. Right now you have to pay $72 to get $100 if the Republicans take the House. That's actually a lower % then I'd expect at this time. Anyway, as that number goes up the market will surely follow. Anything that pushes Obama towards the center that leads to him talking about business tax credits versus cap and trade taxes will be bullish.

Below is the current chart. As they say, people putting their money on the line are likely a lot more accurate then people on TV spinning the results whichever way suits their employer. Something definitely worth watching.


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