IB Net Payout Yields Model

Copper Spikes Higher - Pushes Towards 2010 High

Copper spikes to $3.55/lb today and is closing in on the $3.6 high from earlier in 2010 and will likely eventually push toward the 2009 high around $4/lb. Copper prices now has the benefit of lower grade production from the top miners [Copper Miners Underproduce Expectations By 6% a Year], high demand from a country like China that has little supply, and a recovering housing market in the US along with a FED that is pushing the dollar lower.

All in all the prices for Copper remain very favorable. Even in the face of rising prices this year, inventories continue to plunge at a fast pace. Mainly because top miners such as BHP and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) continue to struggle to keep up with production expectations due to lower grade of ores. FCX in its recent Q2 conference call forecasted Copper prices just above the $3 range providing huge upside to any guidance they've provided.

Our Opportunistic and Growth portfolios have been heavily invested in the Copper trade via the fore mentioned FCX which is the headline Copper investment, but we've also made a smaller investment in China based Lihua International (LIWA). LIWA has been a disappointment as the market has fled these small cap China stocks due to fears that seem overdone. LIWA is a recycler of copper and producer of refined copper that is in high demand in China. Once investors become more comfortable with their financials the stock will perform very well.

Copper spot prices via Kitco:

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Copper 6 month inventories via Kitco:


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