Friday, August 13, 2010

Trade: Bought Cisco Systems

Bought Cisco Systems (CSCO) for the Net Payout Yield portfolio after its follow thru selloff this morning. CSCO was down roughly 10% yesterday following what were decent earnings especially compared to their value. Does valuation matter anymore?

After hours on Wednesday we wrote a little note [Cisco Whacked 7% on 18%+ Guidance]. At that point, we mentioned potentially buying the stock considering how cheap it has become so after letting the market over react we made a purchase today when it was down nearly 1% again and it closed nicely at breakeven. Way too much pain for a generally strong quarter. Remember, in the long run its not whether or not they beat revenue estimates that drives the stock, but whether or not revenue and more specifically earnings expand. CSCO has great potential on that front.

The reason CSCO was purchased for the Net Payout Yield portfolio was two fold. First, we needed better technology exposure in the fund as Microsoft (MSFT) just isn't cutting it and we see much more upside in CSCO. Second, CSCO has $40B in cash on the balance sheet and has bought back over $65B of its own stock. That's an incredible amount over the years and explains why it now has a sub 1 PEG ratio.

Very impressive cash flow and stock buybacks. CSCO had a roughly 8% Net Payout Yield based on Enterprise Value. Combine that with the growth potential that still lies ahead and CSCO is an easy buy at these levels.

  • Cash flows from operations were $3.2 billion for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2010, compared with $3.0 billion for the third quarter of fiscal 2010, and compared with $2.0 billion for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2009. Cash flows from operations were $10.2 billion for fiscal 2010, compared with $9.9 billion for fiscal 2009.
  • Cash and cash equivalents and investments were $39.9 billion at the end of fiscal 2010, compared with $35.0 billion at the end of fiscal 2009, and compared with $39.1 billion at the end of the third quarter of fiscal 2010.
  • During the fourth quarter of fiscal 2010, Cisco repurchased 99 million shares of common stock at an average price of $23.33 per share for an aggregate purchase price of $2.3 billion. During fiscal 2010, Cisco repurchased 325 million shares of common stock at an average price of $24.02 per share for an aggregate purchase price of $7.8 billion. As of July 31, 2010, Cisco had repurchased 3.1 billion shares of Cisco common stock at an average price of $20.78 per share for an aggregate purchase price of approximately $65.0 billion since the inception of the stock repurchase program. The remaining authorized repurchase amount as of July 31, 2010 was $7.0 billion with no termination date.

Disclosure: Long CSCO

2 comments:

Settembrini said...

What about XLNX? which i picked up today.Xilinx downgraded to underperform by BMO Capital after Xilinx Beats as Profit Quadruples and Guidance up?
and How about STX?

Stonefoxcapital said...

Well this particular portfolio is specifically designed for just large caps that have high net payout yields so XLNX wouldn't qualify. We do own TER in other portfolios and XLNX has been a stock that we've looked at as well. Both would be great buys as the market continues to under estimate this cycle.