Sunday, March 21, 2010

HealthCare Passes the House But Will the Market Selloff?

At 10:45EDT the House of Representatives narrowly passed the Healthcare Reform bill. Logically it seems that the market would tank on such news. Honestly though, the reform bill was so narrowly passed (219-212) and it will likely cost numerous Democrats their seats at the November election. Politico has a good run down of the seats on the edge. Does this really give Obama the freedom to unleash his agenda? After all, that is the real fear in the market.

It all really depends on how the public reacts. If they remain negative, then its very doubtful that Democrats will commit career suicide my backing more unpopular programs like cap and trade. And considering the way the bill is being passed basically in the cover of the night almost in a secretive manner. The public voted for Scott Brown to stop healthcare reform and yet the Democrats strong armed it through. Giving special deals to gain support from the anti abortion group. This is exactly what the public doesn't want. How is this change?

When you read the bill it does little to control cost. Wasn't that what reform was about? What it actually does is include cost in the system? Most people covered, more services covered, and more people covered for longer. Does it reduce the cost of medicine? Cost of a doctors visit? Encourage people to act responsibly? Change the method of payment so that individuals are more accountable for wasted visits and procedures?

SP500 needs to hold 1150 the next couple of days. If so, the market likely rallies towards the 1225 to 1250 level by April/May. If it fails, then it could be a sign that Obama is about to push through a on ton of more anti business legislation. Personally, I think too many Democrats need to pull back in order to save their seats that Obama isn't going to have his baking. Winning by 3 votes isn't exactly overwhelming support.

Monday trading should be interesting. We bought some triple smallcap shorts (TZA) and double Russel shorts (TWM) the last few days in order to protect the downside. I'd like to see the push down to 1150 hold and possible pull these hedges.

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