IB Net Payout Yields Model

Invest like me - only at Covestor.com

Upstart: Hitting A Wall

By -

Updated - Oct. 2, 2025

Upstart might have some support here around $50 after BTIG caused the crash from $60 based on faulty delinquency data. The stock hasn't actually rallied on this news suggesting the negative momentum could keep Upstart under pressure. 

Finviz Chart


Update - Sept. 24, 2025

Despite the rate cute, Upstart is trading down at recent lows. If the stock breaks $60 tomorrow, watch out below. 

Finviz Chart

Original article posted on Aug. 6

  • Upstart reported a strong Q2 due to a big boost in loan conversions, but questions remain about sustainability and lack of consistent volume growth.
  • The AI lending platforms expansion into auto and home loans is promising, but funding partners are lacking.
  • The stock trades at 35x 2026 EPS targets, making Upstart expensive for uncertain funding growth.
  • I remain Neutral on Upstart; consider buying on weakness or a breakout above $80 only if supported by rate cuts or major funding news.
  • Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios. Learn More »
Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UPST) keeps running into strong resistance around $80, as the AI lending company fails to convince the market of the long-term growth of the lending platform. The fintech reported a huge boost in the loan conversion rate, leading to questions on sustainability of the Q2 results. My investment thesis remains Neutral on the stock after the big rally since the April lows and the strong resistance at $80.


Read the full article on Seeking Alpha

Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the Disclaimer Page for more details. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Stat of the Day: VXO hits 45 again

By -
Not hardly a week removed from hitting 45 on 9/18/08 and the market is back to this extreme level. Usually hitting the 40 level has historically been a huge buy signal for at least the next 4-6 months. Below are the times that 40 has been hit and only 2 times did it exceed 45 in the prior 20+ years until this month. Guess time will tell if this one leads to a huge rally. Date High 10/19/1987 152.48 8/24/1990 40.01 10/27/1997 40.04 8/27/1998 41.46 4/14/2000 41.53 3/22/2001 41.99 9/17/2001 47.7 7/11/2002 41.64 9/18/2008 45.81
Read more

Nextdoor: Next Step Up

By -
Image
Update - Feb. 28, 2025 Nextdoor reported another strong quarter.  Q4 Revenue of $65.23M (+17.4% Y/Y)  beats by $2.11M . Adjusted EBITDA was $3.0 million, compared to a $14.0 million loss in the year-ago period, reflecting 30 percentage points of year-over-year margin improvement. The social media company guided to weak Q1 results due to going full speed ahead with the NEXT UI updates. This is great news for  investors, but the stock is down some 30% due to the markets short-term focus.  The stock trades at near cash value of $427 million.  Originally posted on Nov. 8 Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Nextdoor has achieved a significant turnaround under the return of founding CEO Nirav Tolia, with 17% revenue growth and record WAUs. The company nearly eliminated losses, reporting a Q3 adjusted EBITDA loss of just $1 million, and expects to be cas...
Read more

Baidu: Historical Support At $80

By -
Image
Updated - Nov. 15, 2024 Despite leadership in AI and robotaxis in China, Baidu trades right back down to historical support around $80. The stock has now dipped $30 following the volatile move on hope for the Chinese government to fully stimulate the economy.  Update - Aug. 22, 2024 Baidu didn't report anything impressive from robotaxis or AI yet during Q2. The big robotaxi ramp up in Wuhan hasn't started yet. The stock did hold the key $80 support level.  Q2 Non-GAAP EPADS of $2.89 beats by $0.29. Revenue of $4.67B (flat Y/Y) misses by $70M. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.26 billion and adjusted EBITDA margin was 27%.  Adjusted EBITDA for Baidu Core was $1.19 billion and adjusted EBITDA margin for Baidu Core was 32%. Free cash flow was $862 million, and free cash flow excluding iQIYI was $810 million. Original article posted on Aug. 18 Baidu trades at levels first seen in 2011 despite strong growth catalysts. The Chinese search leader will report Q2 earnings on August 22, reveal...
Read more