Upstart: Another Run Is Possible, But The Price Isn't Right
Update - Feb. 12, 2025
Upstart with a monster quarter, the stock probably heads to $100.
-Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.26 beats by $0.30.
-Revenue of $218.96M (+56.1% Y/Y) beats by $37.04M.
-Transaction Volume and Conversion Rate: 245,663 loans were originated, totaling $2.1 billion, up 68% YoY and up 33% QoQ. Our Conversion Rate was 19.3%, up from 11.6% in Q4 2023.
Original article posted on Jan. 07
- Upstart Holdings saw a surge to $80 due to positive earnings but remains overvalued at $60 despite higher loan demand from Fed rate cuts.
- The AI lending platform's expansion into secured auto loans and HELOCs hasn't yielded significant growth in a huge disappointment, and the company is still struggling to turn a profit.
- UPST stock trades at 8x forward sales, limiting the attractiveness of Upstart.
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