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Upstart: Another Run Is Possible, But The Price Isn't Right

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Update - Feb. 12, 2025

Upstart with a monster quarter, the stock probably heads to $100. 

-Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.26 beats by $0.30.
-Revenue of $218.96M (+56.1% Y/Y) beats by $37.04M.

-Transaction Volume and Conversion Rate: 245,663 loans were originated, totaling $2.1 billion, up 68% YoY and up 33% QoQ. Our Conversion Rate was 19.3%, up from 11.6% in Q4 2023.

Finviz Chart


Original article posted on Jan. 07

  • Upstart Holdings saw a surge to $80 due to positive earnings but remains overvalued at $60 despite higher loan demand from Fed rate cuts.
  • The AI lending platform's expansion into secured auto loans and HELOCs hasn't yielded significant growth in a huge disappointment, and the company is still struggling to turn a profit.
  • UPST stock trades at 8x forward sales, limiting the attractiveness of Upstart.
  • Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios. Learn More »
After urging investors to sell into strength in Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:UPST), the stock soared to over $80 on a positive earnings report back in early November. Not surprisingly, the AI lending fintech started showing benefits from higher loan demand after the U.S. Fed cut interest rates. My investment thesis remains Neutral on the stock still trading at a stretched valuation above $60.

Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. 

Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

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