IB Net Payout Yields Model

Stat of the Day: Empire Manufacturing Orders Grow

Empire State Manufacturing Index (New York) came in nearly even today suggesting that the manufacturing sector is about to turn positive. The numbers were sharply higher then expectations and new orders were positive. The big downside was a huge continuation of the inventory reduction. This reduction only makes the recovery much more likely as firms will be required to start increasing inventories to keep up with increasing orders.

The Philly Fed Index will be interesting tomorrow. This index was stronger then the Empire one in June and analysts have the same expectations of -5.0. Another strong area would all but put a nail in this recession.

  • New York Federal Reserve's Empire State general business conditions index rose to minus 0.55 in July from minus 9.41 in June
  • July's report on factory activity in New York state was the strongest since April 2008, the last time it was in positive territory.
  • exceeded economists' expectations of minus 5.0, based on the median of forecasts in a Reuters poll.
  • The improvement in factory sentiment was boosted by a big jump in the new orders index to 5.89 from June's minus 8.15, reaching its highest since December 2007.
  • The improvement came as the inventories index fell to minus 36.46 -- a record low, according to the New York Fed. In June, it was at negative 25.29.


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