Out Fox The $treet

Update - Feb. 28, 2025 Nextdoor reported another strong quarter.  Q4 Revenue of $65.23M (+17.4% Y/Y)  beats by $2.11M . Adjusted EBITDA was $3.0 million, compared to a $14.0 million loss in the year-ago period, reflecting 30 percentage points of year-over-year margin improvement. The social media company guided to weak Q1 results due to going full speed ahead with the NEXT UI updates. This is great news for  investors, but the stock is down some 30% due to the markets short-term focus.  The stock trades at near cash value of $427 million.  Originally posted on Nov. 8 Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Nextdoor has achieved a significant turnaround under the return of founding CEO Nirav Tolia, with 17% revenue growth and record WAUs. The company nearly eliminated losses, reporting a Q3 adjusted EBITDA loss of just $1 million, and expects to be cas...

Updated - Feb. 21, 2025 Hims & Hers Health isn't reliant on GLP-1 shortages. Not sure why news reports keep making this false claim, but the stock is down 20% today on the FDA ending the semagultide shortage status.  -The U.S. FDA announced Friday that it would refrain from penalizing makers of compounded versions of Novo Nordisk’s (NVO) weight loss/obesity drugs for two more months as supply conditions for the GLP-1s improve after an official end to their shortage. -Earlier in the day, the agency declared that the nationwide shortage of the highly popular GLP-1s, collectively known as semaglutide, is resolved after nearly three years. -“The FDA confirmed with the drug’s manufacturer that their stated product availability and manufacturing capacity can meet the present and projected national demand,” the regulator said. -Hims & Hers (NYSE:HIMS), which made compounded versions of semaglutide amid the shortage, lost billions of dollars in market cap in reaction as the telehea...

  Unity Software's Q4 results showed progress, but the company still faces challenges, with 2025 being another transition year. The company reported mixed Q4 numbers with a 25% sales drop, but the strategic portfolio sales grew 4% YoY. Unity's new AI ad tech product, Vector, promises future growth, but the transition will impact revenues in the short term, leading to weak Q1 guidance. The stock is back up to ~7x forward EV/S targets, expensive for a company with limited to no growth. Unity Software Inc.  ( NYSE: U ) soared on Q4 results, but the software company didn't report the huge turnaround insinuated by the stock gain. The game engine company is poised for a turnaround, but the business still has a long  road ahead. My  investment thesis  remains Neutral on the stock, with 2025 being another transition year. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more deters. 

Update - Feb. 12, 2025 Upstart with a monster quarter, the stock probably heads to $100.  -Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.26 beats by $0.30. -Revenue of $218.96M (+56.1% Y/Y) beats by $37.04M. -Transaction Volume and Conversion Rate: 245,663 loans were originated, totaling $2.1 billion, up 68% YoY and up 33% QoQ. Our Conversion Rate was 19.3%, up from 11.6% in Q4 2023. Original article posted on Jan. 07 Upstart Holdings saw a surge to $80 due to positive earnings but remains overvalued at $60 despite higher loan demand from Fed rate cuts. The AI lending platform's expansion into secured auto loans and HELOCs hasn't yielded significant growth in a huge disappointment, and the company is still struggling to turn a profit. UPST stock trades at 8x forward sales, limiting the attractiveness of Upstart. Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » After urging investors to sell into strengt...

  Rivian's expansion plan includes a DOE loan for a Georgia plant, aiming for 615K annual production by 2030, despite potential political risks. The upcoming Q4 results are crucial due to the focus on achieving positive gross margins for the 1st time, allowing the market to shift away from large losses. The EV manufacturer moved the focus towards the R2 ramp in 2026, aiming for annual sales of 200K to lead to EBITDA profitability by 2027. The stock is cheap due to the massive opportunity to ramp up production over 10x in the next 5+ years. As the calendar turned to 2025,  Rivian Automotive, Inc.  ( RIVN )  gets closer to fully unleashing their EV platform. The Normal, Ill. plant expansion is in full force and the company recently obtained a government  loan to build the Georgia plant in order to produce R2s and R3s. My  investment thesis  remains ultra-Bullish on the stock. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position mentione...

Update - Jan. 29, 2025 Meta with another big quarter, Q1 guidance was wonky though. Another big beat in the March quarter and Meta beats the current consensus estimates. -Q4 GAAP EPS of $8.02 beats by $1.26. -Revenue of $48.39B (+20.6% Y/Y) beats by $1.4B. CFO Outlook Commentary: We expect first quarter 2025 total revenue to be in the range of $39.5-41.8 billion vs. consensus of $41.62B. This reflects 8-15% year-over-year growth, or 11-18% growth on a constant currency basis as our guidance assumes foreign currency is an approximately 3% headwind to year-over-year total revenue growth, based on current exchange rates. Original article posted on Jan. 22 Meta Platforms, Inc.'s stock remains attractive due to AI and Metaverse opportunities, even after the stock's massive run in the last couple of years. The company has a massive catalyst in smart glasses with an aim to replace smartphones in the future, warranting Reality Labs' $17+ billion annual loss. The stock could reach $...

  Nvidia Corporation faces pressure due to DeepSeek's claims of cheaper AI model training, but efficient GPU usage could boost overall AI spending. DeepSeek's R1 model claims to outperform OpenAI at a fraction of the cost, though its actual GPU usage is under scrutiny. Nvidia's stock drop presents a buying opportunity, with AI demand likely to grow despite potential margin risks. The main stock risk is lower margins, but efficient AI models are unlikely to diminish Nvidia's long-term AI GPU growth story. Nvidia Corporation  ( NASDAQ: NVDA ) is getting crushed on news of a Chinese AI company figuring out how to reduce GPU costs to train AI models. The AI chip company traded at a rich valuation, and less demand for GPUs  could crush the sales growth and reduce the value of the stock. My  investment thesis  remains Bullish on the stock on any further dips, as more efficient GPU usage could only ramp up AI spending. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Dis...