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IB Net Payout Yields Model

Red Cat: Buy Any Drone Dip

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Red Cat's post-earnings dip presents a buying opportunity, despite missing FQ2 revenue estimates and the CFO's departure. The company secured a major military contract and partnered with Palantir for AI software for drones, boosting 2025 revenue guidance to $80-$120 million. RCAT stock is trading at 8x 2025 sales estimates, but limited cash raises concerns, though new deals and potential government loans mitigate funding risks. Red Cat Holdings, Inc.  ( NASDAQ: RCAT ) was red-hot heading into the FQ2 earnings report. The drone technology stock slumped following disappointing quarterly results, but the future appears very bright. My investment thesis is Bullish on the stock, especially  if the post-earnings dip holds. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha.  Disclosure: No position. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

Stitch Fix: Another Major Disappointment

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Update - Dec. 13, 2025 Despite a better than expected quarter and Stitch Fix soaring on the results, the stock has actually dipped below the pre-earnings price of $4.60. Stitch Fix closed at $6.64 the day following earnings.  Q1 GAAP EPS of -$0.05  beats by $0.09 . Revenue of $318.81M (-12.6% Y/Y)   beats by $11.88M . The stock now hardly trades above the cash balance of $253 million. Stitch Fix should actually see the bottom in the current quarter with holiday sales around $300 million, though guidance was far above prior estimates.  Therealreal (REAL) has tripled this year after turning the online retail business around. The stock now trades at a massive premium to the forward EV/S model of Stitch Fix.  Original article posted on Sept. 25  Stitch Fix's FQ4'24 results show potential stabilization, but weak FY25 guidance and ongoing restructuring hinder immediate growth prospects. Despite promising enhancements like StyleFile and Fix Expansion, revenue guid...

SentinelOne: Still The Cybersecurity One To Own

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Update - Dec. 11  SentinelOne continues to trend down despite a strong October quarter with sales growing 28% to reach $210 million. The cybersecurity stock is easily the cheapest in the sector, yet the market has pushed SentinelOne down to only $23. The stock now trades at half the forward  EV/S multiple of CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) despite faster growth.  Original article posted on Dec. 3 SentinelOne, Inc. is a leader in cloud and AI security, showing strong ARR growth and taking market share from competitors like CrowdStrike. Despite high growth rates, SentinelOne trades discounted compared to peers like CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks, making it a compelling investment. The company is turning profitable, has a strong balance sheet, and is expected to report increasing revenues and profits, enhancing its investment appeal. S stock trades at only 8x forward revenues in a sector where typical valuations are much higher. Looking for a portfolio o...

indie Semiconductor: Back On Track

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Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Updated - Dec. 4 indie Semi. got crushed from a convertible debt offering. The auto tech company didn't need the cash. This dip is insane.  -indie Semiconductor (NASDAQ:INDI) said on Monday that it plans to offer, subject to market and other conditions, $175M aggregate principal amount of its convertible senior notes due 2029, through a private offering to institutional buyers. -indie expects to grant the initial purchasers in the offering an option to purchase up to an additional $26.25 million aggregate principal amount of notes. Original article posted on Nov. 24  indie Semiconductor faced a tough 2024 but is poised for significant growth in 2025 and beyond, driven by EVs and AVs. The company has a strategic backlog of $7.1 billion, focusing on vision and radar for ADAS, in-cabin experience, and electrification. indie Semic...

Cloudflare: Not Good Enough

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Update - Dec. 2, 2024 Don't get this upgrade from Morgan Stanley. Cloudflare  is twice as expensive as SentinelOne  and the analyst chose to downgrade SentinelOne. -The analysts upped their rating on Cloudflare to Overweight from Equal-Weight as the firm believes there is a path to "sustainable" 25% to 30% revenue growth over the next few years, stemming from multiple product cycles, growing contribution of artificial intelligence at the edge and a fully ramped enterprise sales force. -"We think the stock sustains a premium valuation on higher estimates as growth remains stronger for longer," the analysts wrote. -new PT of $130.  Original article posted on Nov. 12 Looking for a portfolio of ideas like this one? Members of Out Fox The Street get exclusive access to our subscriber-only portfolios.  Learn More » Cloudflare has a strong business potential in AI and network security, with Q3 revenues up nearly 28% and $1.8 billion in cash. Despite a great quarter, Cl...

Snowflake: AI Evolution Overplayed

Snowflake Inc.'s stock surged post-FQ3 earnings but remains overvalued based on limited AI revenue and decelerating growth. The company is only targeting 23% YoY growth in FQ4 despite the investor excitement. The stock's rally is driven by AI hype and multiple expansions, pushing the valuation similar to pre-IPO Databricks with up to double the growth rates. Investors should consider cashing out of Snowflake due to downside risks on a stock trading at 15x FY26 revenues, especially as Snowflake's growth continues to point to decelerating. After a rough patch that saw  Snowflake, Inc.  ( NYSE: SNOW ) shares collapse over 50% from the yearly highs, investors came rushing back into the stock following a promising  FQ3 earnings report . The AI data company highlighted  some bright spots in the quarter to overcome past issues with data security. My  investment thesis  remains Bearish on the stock after the big rally back up to $175 and the related rich valuation....

Moderna: Looking For The Bottom

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Update - Nov. 22, 2024 Moderna has been hit hard following the last couple of years on waning demand for Covid vaccines while the biotech over spent on new drug development. Now, the stock appears to have been hit too hard. RFK is unlikely to alter vaccine sales by a dramatic amount.  -Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) is up ~8% in Friday trading after company management said that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. potentially heading up HHS under the next Trump administration is not likely to lead to vaccines being pulled from the market. -In a note, Jefferies analyst Michael Yee noted that while Kennedy Jr.'s nomination may have caused some investors anxiety, it is highly unlikely he would do "anything draconian." Moderna's management made the comments Nov. 21 at the Jefferies London Healthcare Conference. -Jefferies has a hold rating on the stock with a $50 price target (~31% upside based on Nov. 21 close). Original article posted on Sept. 13 Moderna, Inc. slashed its R&D budget by $1....