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Moderna: Looking For The Bottom

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Update - Nov. 22, 2024

Moderna has been hit hard following the last couple of years on waning demand for Covid vaccines while the biotech over spent on new drug development. Now, the stock appears to have been hit too hard. RFK is unlikely to alter vaccine sales by a dramatic amount. 

-Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) is up ~8% in Friday trading after company management said that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. potentially heading up HHS under the next Trump administration is not likely to lead to vaccines being pulled from the market.
-In a note, Jefferies analyst Michael Yee noted that while Kennedy Jr.'s nomination may have caused some investors anxiety, it is highly unlikely he would do "anything draconian." Moderna's management made the comments Nov. 21 at the Jefferies London Healthcare Conference.
-Jefferies has a hold rating on the stock with a $50 price target (~31% upside based on Nov. 21 close).


Finviz Chart

Original article posted on Sept. 13

  • Moderna, Inc. slashed its R&D budget by $1.1 billion for 2027 and cut 2025 sales targets, indicating financial struggles post-Covid vaccine boom.
  • The biotech faces pressure to execute new drug candidates successfully, with a focus on cancer and rare diseases, to avoid future financial issues.
  • Despite cutting R&D, Moderna's high operating expenses and forecasted revenue slumps pose significant risks, delaying profitability to 2028.
  • Investors should wait for revenue stabilization and business right-sizing before considering Moderna a Buy, with a potential turnaround expected in 2025.
Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) slumped this week on an updated corporate forecast for the next few years. The biotech continues to struggle, shifting from a R&D firm to production after the COVID-19 boost continues to subside. My investment thesis is still Bearish on the stock following the additional sell-off after right sizing of the development program.

Read the full article on Seeking Alpha. 

Disclosure: No position mentioned. Please review the disclaimer page for more details. 

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